The Economics of European Monetary Integration: The Pros and Cons of EMU Membership

Author(s):  
Donato Masciandaro ◽  
Davide Romelli

The recent global crisis challenged the stability of the European monetary integration process. That process, which is closely linked to the evolution of the European Monetary Union (EMU), has gone through two stages: the Common Market era, which ran from 1958 until 1993, and the Monetary Union era, which started in 1994 and gained new impetus after the global crisis with the publication of the Four Presidents’ Report in December 2012. The aim of the EMU has been to exchange rates, inflation and interest rates in order to boost capital mobility and trade, thereby promoting the growth of member countries. Thus far, the data shows that there has been nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, while real convergence of per capita income has not occurred among the original euro area participants.

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 337
Author(s):  
Бранка Топић-Павковић

Резиме: Идеја о формирању Европске монетарне уније (ЕМУ) произашла је из чињенице да монетарно интегрисање има значајне економске предности код снижавања трансакционих трошкова, веће транспарентности цијена и монетарну стабилност. Теорија оптималног валутног подручјa истиче позитивну везу високог степена конвергенције и постизања користи од интегрисања и вођења заједничке политике за земље чланице монетарне уније Мастрихтски критеријуми конвергенције подразумијевају да земља која улази у ЕМУ има релативно ниску инфлацију, стабилну валуту, низак ниво буџетског дефицита, одржив јавни дуг, као и релативно ниске каматне стопе. Прије стицања позиције кандидата за приступ у ЕМУ, Босна и Херцеговина мора постати чланом ЕУ, и испунити критеријуме за чланство који се односе на политичке, економске, административне и правосудне институције. Будући да су Мастрихтски критеријуми конвергенције прецизније дефинисани од осталих критеријума, у економској литератури често се користе као показатељ спремности земаља кандидата за приступ Е(М)У. Поред сагледавања теоријских и емпиријских сазнања о условима монетарног интегрисања, циљ овог рада је да, на основу компаративне анализе остварених економских перформанси БиХ и земаља региона, оцијенимо остварену конвергенцију и степен приближавања БиХ критеријумима конвергенције из Мастрихта. Резултати истраживања сугеришу да је за БиХ, након уласка у ЕУ, рационално рјешење постепен процес монетарне интеграције, који уз стабилну монетарну политику подразумијева ефикасно управљање јавним финансијама и опрезно управљање јавним дугом. Дугорочни циљ БиХ огледа се у достизању реалне конвергенције кроз повећање продуктивности и конкурентности.Summary: The idea of forming the European Monetary Union (EMU) derives from the fact that monetary integration has considerable economic advantages in lower transaction costs, greater price transparency and monetary stability. Аccording to the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, it is very important for member states to achieve high level of convergence in order to exploit advantages of integrating and conducting a common policy. Maastricht convergence criteria imply that a country that enters the European Monetary Union (EMU) has a relatively low inflation, a stable currency, low budget deficits, relatively low interest rates and sustainable public debt. Before gaining the position of candidates for EMU, Bosnia and Herzegovina has to become a member of the EU and to achieve the criteria for membership related to the development of political, economic, administrative and judicial institutions. Since the Maastricht convergence criteria are more precise than other criteria, in the economic literature are often used as an indicators of the readiness of the candidate countries to access the E(M)U. In addition to consideration of theoretical and empirical knowledge about the monetary integration, the main goal of this paper is to, using the comparative analysis of actual economic performance of BiH and the region, provides us with knowledge and assessment of BiH stage of compliance with the Maastricht convergence criteria. The results show that a rational solution for BiH, after joining the EU, is based on gradual process of monetary integration, with stable monetary policy, effective management of public finances and careful management of public debt. The long-term goal of BiH lies in achieving real convergence through increased productivity and competitiveness.


2015 ◽  
pp. 7-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Sousa Andrade ◽  
António Portugal Duarte

It is well known and widely accepted by economists that the characteristics of the countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) created in 1999 did not match the requirements of an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The only criteria for membership of the EMU were nominal. A strict level of convergence in inflation and interest rates was imposed. In addition to the nominal convergence, a process of convergence of nominal and real incomes in the new monetary area was expected to be generated with the monetary integration. After summarizing the criteria for a successful currency area in the context of the OCA theory, we study the real and nominal convergence process for an older group of countries (11) to establish whether or not these countries satisfy the conditions of an OCA. We apply ADF tests, together with the Schmidt-Phillips tests, and we estimate the fractional differential process to overcome the disadvantages of the traditional tests, to test for nominal and real convergence. We conclude that a process of real divergence and nominal convergence does exist, and suggest this is a source of genuine imbalance in the European integration process that can destroy the harmonious development of the European Monetary Union.http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/2183‑203X_42_1


ECONOMICS ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-71
Author(s):  
Merim Kasumović ◽  
Erna Heric

Summary The thematic framework of this work is the nominal and real convergence as a determinant for joining the European monetary union. The focus of the work is to prove that realising the criteria of the convergence affects the stability of the European monetary union, that is, that the cause of destabilisation is exactly the fact that certain member nations have not realised the assigned convergence criteria. The financial integration is an important question because it contributes to the economic growth affecting free exchange with the goal of a more efficient allocation of capital; it is the result of the economic theory and the empirical research. Introducing the Euro as a single payment method while losing the monetary sovereignty of the countries which have accepted it is the main reason for forming the European Central Bank. The mission of the European Central Bank is to define and conduct a single monetary policy within the Eurozone. Because of the already mentioned facts, the challenges of conducting the fiscal policy within the Eurozone as well as the key aspects of the monetary unification of Europe have been analysed. The results of this analysis should point out the stability of the EMU by the convergence degree of the member nations from a single monetary area.


Equilibrium ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-66
Author(s):  
Ilona Pietryka

The creation of the Economic and Monetary Union is the next stage of monetary integration. Due to differentiation between Member States of the European Union, expenses and profits of participation in Eurosystem are not spread similarly. The first part of this paper reviews the fulfillment of nominal Maastricht criteria (stability of public finances, prices, exchange rate and interest rates). The second part presents the state of real convergence between countries either belonging to or aspiring to European Economic and Monetary Union (flexibility of prices and salaries, mobility of means of production, integration of financial markets, openness of economy, diversification of production and consumption and similarity of economic disorders). Analyses are based on available statistical data and scientific research.


Author(s):  
Jens Körner

The emergence of the so-called PIIGS crisis which in 2009 became acute due to strongly diverging risk premiums, marked the beginning of a new phase for the European Monetary Union. Whilst the run-up to EMU had been characterized by an encouraging convergence of macroeconomic fundamentals of its member countries, it is now facing a serious threat in particular due to excessive levels of public debt. In 1997, the Stability and Growth Pact introduced a mechanism designed to prevent excessive public debt of the type currently observed; the fact of the matter, however, seems to be that levels of public debt has continuously grown from one economic cycle to the next. But the SGP apparently not only failed to fulfil its aim to keep the deficit and the debt level within its limits but also suffered from a severe loss of credibility; unless some profound action is taken it may further diminish, severely hampering the loose structure of the European Monetary Union. In order to regain some credibility, mitigate financial market’s concerns and, hence, lower borrowing cost, a consolidation path is needed to returns to acceptable levels of debt in the foreseeable future. This process has already started and measures have been taken by several eurozone countries to speed up fiscal consolidation. The aim of the paper is to analyze whether or not the group of the PIIGS countries are likely to return to debt levels in accordance with the SGP criteria or if it might be necessary to undergo a process of debt restructuring or default. By analysing different scenarios where nominal interest rates on debt (r) and nominal growth rates (n) as well as gaps thereof (r-n), herein called the automatic debt dynamics, are varied, this paper comes to the conclusion, that debt restructuring or default is a likely outcome for some of the PIIGS; arithmetics is in particular playing against Greece. As disillusioning and disappointing this outcome might be for some observers, it could be the starting point for a more credible set of rules for the SGP, which the author deems to remain a crucial component in any institutional set-up within the eurozone.


Author(s):  
Ihor Soroka

The question of whether or not to adopt the euro is a very important one, not only for the 13 European Union members that do not share the same currency, but also for future EU candidates. Current literature on the effect of the euro on trade is scarce since the European Monetary Union (EMU) was officially created in 1999, and up until recently there has not been enough data to analyze this issue. This paper aims to estimate the effect of the euro on trade between member countries using the standard gravity model of trade. Using data from current 25 EU members over the period from 1997 to 2004, I show that higher trade volumes between EMU members cannot be attributed to the adoption of the euro. I find evidence that the euro adoption has had a short-run effect on bilateral trade and that this effect is eliminated over a short period of time. My findings suggest that members of the EMU trade on average from 8.8% to 47% more compared to non-members depending on the type of regression used, while members of the Free Trade Agreement trade 61.3% more. The effect of the euro on trade is eliminated as soon as I control for country-pair specific effects that include the FTA effect as well as history of trade relations between two countries. I conclude that the adoption of the euro should be seen as a final step in the European economic and monetary integration for countries that already benefit from relatively high volumes of bilateral trade. Full text availale at: https://doi.org/10.22215/rera.v2i1.166


2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 533-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Lelart

The evolution of the international monetary System prompted the nine members of the E.E.C. to establish a European Monetary System. The new statutes of the I.M.F. have in fact legalized the practice of flexible exchange rates and sanctioned the dollar's inconvertibility while eliminating the role of gold. Further, the increasing importance of the international capital markets fosters the unlimited expansion of international liquidities. it is in response to this context then that Europe seeks to create a zone of stability and to manage its own international tender in accordance with rules that it has set for itself. The author draws a positive conclusion as the System has operated without major problems so far. Nevertheless, difficulties remain: the international environment has not improved given the abrupt strengthening of the dollar and the increase in American interest rates. In addition, progress with regard to cooperation among the Nine remains slow and political change in France makes any prognosis respecting the future of the European Monetary System difficult. It was anticipated that the System would be Consolidated rapidly. It would in that event contribute more effectively to the stability of the international monetary System. It could, on the other hand, sharpen competition between Europe and the United States, between the Ecu and S.D.Rs. and between the European Monetary Fund and the International Monetary Fund.


2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunther Schnabl

Abstract The paper scrutinizes the role of diverging fiscal policy stances for diverging current account positions in Europe with a focus on the European Monetary Union (EMU). In a heterogeneous monetary union fiscal policy has the task to absorb asymmetric shocks to ensure the efficacy of the one-size monetary policy. It is argued that since the early years of the European Monetary Union divergent fiscal policies combined with monetary expansion constituted a major determinant of current account divergence within the euro area, which finally led into the European debt and financial crisis. Panel regressions reveal a significant impact of fiscal policies on current account positions, which to a large extent are independent from the exchange rate regime and turn out to be contingent on monetary and fiscal policy mix. Based on the findings economic policy recommendations are presented.


2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ihor Soroka

The question of whether or not to adopt the euro is a very important one, not only for the 13 European Union members that do not share the same currency, but also for future EU candidates. Current literature on the effect of the euro on trade is scarce since the European Monetary Union (EMU) was officially created in 1999, and up until recently there has not been enough data to analyze this issue. This paper aims to estimate the effect of the euro on trade between member countries using the standard gravity model of trade. Using data from current 25 EU members over the period from 1997 to 2004, I show that higher trade volumes between EMU members cannot be attributed to the adoption of the euro. I find evidence that the euro adoption has had a short-run effect on bilateral trade and that this effect is eliminated over a short period of time. My findings suggest that members of the EMU trade on average from 8.8% to 47% more compared to non-members depending on the type of regression used, while members of the Free Trade Agreement trade 61.3% more. The effect of the euro on trade is eliminated as soon as I control for country-pair specific effects that include the FTA effect as well as history of trade relations between two countries. I conclude that the adoption of the euro should be seen as a final step in the European economic and monetary integration for countries that already benefit from relatively high volumes of bilateral trade.


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