scholarly journals Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies

2008 ◽  
Vol 366 (1882) ◽  
pp. 4039-4056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken Caldeira ◽  
Lowell Wood
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Response ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Climate Engineering ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Albedo Change ◽  
Global Mean

We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO 2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO 2 climate than would be a high CO 2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.

The Arctic Climate System

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark C. Serreze ◽  
Roger G. Barry
Keyword(s):  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic

scholarly journals Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Fernanda Casagrande ◽  
Francisco A. B. Neto ◽  
Ronald B. de Souza ◽  
Paulo Nobre
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Rise

One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards.

scholarly journals Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 10929-10999 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Döscher ◽  
T. Vihma ◽  
E. Maksimovich
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. The Arctic sea ice is the central and essential component of the Arctic climate system. The depletion and areal decline of the Arctic sea ice cover, observed since the 1970's, have accelerated after the millennium shift. While a relationship to global warming is evident and is underpinned statistically, the mechanisms connected to the sea ice reduction are to be explored in detail. Sea ice erodes both from the top and from the bottom. Atmosphere, sea ice and ocean processes interact in non-linear ways on various scales. Feedback mechanisms lead to an Arctic amplification of the global warming system. The amplification is both supported by the ice depletion and is at the same time accelerating the ice reduction. Knowledge of the mechanisms connected to the sea ice decline has grown during the 1990's and has deepened when the acceleration became clear in the early 2000's. Record summer sea ice extents in 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2012 provided additional information on the mechanisms. This article reviews recent progress in understanding of the sea ice decline. Processes are revisited from an atmospheric, ocean and sea ice perspective. There is strong evidence for decisive atmospheric changes being the major driver of sea ice change. Feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo and thickness allow for additional local atmosphere and ocean influences and self-supporting feedbacks. Large scale ocean influences on the Arctic Ocean hydrology and circulation are highly evident. Northward heat fluxes in the ocean are clearly impacting the ice margins, especially in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Only little indication exists for a direct decisive influence of the warming ocean on the overall sea ice cover, due to an isolating layer of cold and fresh water underneath the sea ice.

The impact of sea-ice dynamics on the Arctic climate system

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 741-757 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Vavrus ◽  
S. P. Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (24) ◽  
pp. 13571-13600 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Döscher ◽  
T. Vihma ◽  
E. Maksimovich
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Central Component ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Sea Ice Decline

Abstract. Sea ice is the central component and most sensitive indicator of the Arctic climate system. Both the depletion and areal decline of the Arctic sea ice cover, observed since the 1970s, have accelerated since the millennium. While the relationship of global warming to sea ice reduction is evident and underpinned statistically, it is the connecting mechanisms that are explored in detail in this review. Sea ice erodes both from the top and the bottom. Atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice processes interact in non-linear ways on various scales. Feedback mechanisms lead to an Arctic amplification of the global warming system: the amplification is both supported by the ice depletion and, at the same time, accelerates ice reduction. Knowledge of the mechanisms of sea ice decline grew during the 1990s and deepened when the acceleration became clear in the early 2000s. Record minimum summer sea ice extents in 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2012 provide additional information on the mechanisms. This article reviews recent progress in understanding the sea ice decline. Processes are revisited from atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice perspectives. There is strong evidence that decisive atmospheric changes are the major driver of sea ice change. Feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo, and ice thickness allow for additional local atmospheric and oceanic influences and self-supporting feedbacks. Large-scale ocean influences on Arctic Ocean hydrology and circulation are highly evident. Northward heat fluxes in the ocean are clearly impacting the ice margins, especially in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. There is little indication of a direct and decisive influence of the warming ocean on the overall sea ice cover, due to an isolating layer of cold and fresh water underneath the sea ice.

scholarly journals JAMSTEC-IARC international collaboration enhancing understanding of the Arctic climate system

Polar Science ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-52
Author(s):  
Larry D. Hinzman ◽  
Tetsuo Ohata ◽  
Igor V. Polyakov ◽  
Rikie Suzuki ◽  
John E. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
International Collaboration ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic

scholarly journals Advances in understanding and parameterization of small-scale physical processes in the marine Arctic climate system: a review

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 9403-9450 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Vihma ◽  
R. Pirazzini ◽  
I. Fer ◽  
I. A. Renfrew ◽  
J. Sedlar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Made In

Abstract. The Arctic climate system includes numerous highly interactive small-scale physical processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. During and since the International Polar Year 2007–2009, significant advances have been made in understanding these processes. Here, these recent advances are reviewed, synthesized, and discussed. In atmospheric physics, the primary advances have been in cloud physics, radiative transfer, mesoscale cyclones, coastal, and fjordic processes as well as in boundary layer processes and surface fluxes. In sea ice and its snow cover, advances have been made in understanding of the surface albedo and its relationships with snow properties, the internal structure of sea ice, the heat and salt transfer in ice, the formation of superimposed ice and snow ice, and the small-scale dynamics of sea ice. For the ocean, significant advances have been related to exchange processes at the ice–ocean interface, diapycnal mixing, double-diffusive convection, tidal currents and diurnal resonance. Despite this recent progress, some of these small-scale physical processes are still not sufficiently understood: these include wave–turbulence interactions in the atmosphere and ocean, the exchange of heat and salt at the ice–ocean interface, and the mechanical weakening of sea ice. Many other processes are reasonably well understood as stand-alone processes but the challenge is to understand their interactions with and impacts and feedbacks on other processes. Uncertainty in the parameterization of small-scale processes continues to be among the greatest challenges facing climate modelling, particularly in high latitudes. Further improvements in parameterization require new year-round field campaigns on the Arctic sea ice, closely combined with satellite remote sensing studies and numerical model experiments.

scholarly journals Progress in understanding the Arctic climate system

Eos ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 85 (16) ◽  
pp. 159-159
Author(s):  
Thierry Fichefet ◽  
Chad Dick ◽  
Greg Flato ◽  
Douglas Kane ◽  
Jim Moore
Keyword(s):  
Climate System ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic

scholarly journals Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5175-5190
Author(s):  
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls ◽  
Malte Meinshausen ◽  
Jared Lewis ◽  
Robert Gieseke ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase 1 ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Reduced Complexity ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1 ∘C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2 ∘C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3 ∘C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23∘C(±0.12 ∘C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.

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