Simultaneous Carbon Storage in Arable land and Anthropogenic Products (CSAAP): demonstrating a new concept towards well below 2°C

The removal of additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is indispensable for controlling global warming. This study proposed the concept of ‘biopump’, as plants capable of significantly transferring carbon into the soil. The Carbon Storage in Arable land and Anthropogenic Products (CSAAP) relates to the cultivation of ‘biopumps’ on marginal arable lands poor in soil organic carbon (SOC) and their conversion into long-lived anthropogenic products. Based on a list of twenty-seven biopumps assembled from a literature review, this study proposed a method for the regional prioritization of biopumps, considering among others their ability to increase SOC and adaptation. A list with eight woody and eight herbaceous biopumps was recommended for France. To illustrate the potential of the CSAAP strategy for products encompassing a variety of lifetimes, carbon flows, from biopump cultivation to biomaterial manufacturing and end-of-life, were tracked in time to calculate their influence on global mean temperature change. An illustration was performed on the basis of a French case study, where Miscanthus is grown on spatially identified marginal lands quantified as 11,187- 24,007 km2. Planting biopumps on these lands could increase by 0.23 to 0.49 Mt carbon stocked as SOC annually, which represents 0.19%- 0.41% of the annual French carbon budget during 2015-2018. If the carbon contained in the biomass is indefinitely kept in anthropogenic products, it could represent 13.07% of the same carbon budget. We concluded that biopumps could induce negative emission by 2100, with efficiency strongly depending upon carbon’ residence time in the anthroposphere.

Emergent Constraints on CMIP6 Climate Warming Projections: Contrasting Cloud- and Surface Temperature-Based Constraints

The latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble shows a broader range of projected warming than the previous-generation CMIP5 ensemble. We show that the projected warming is well-correlated with tropical and subtropical low-level cloud properties. These physically-meaningful relations enable us to use observed cloud properties to constrain future climate warming. We develop multivariate-linear-regression models with metrics selected from a set of potential constraints based on a step-wise selection approach. The resulting linear regression model using two low-cloud metrics shows better cross-validated results than regression models which use single metrics as constraints. Application of a regression model using the low-cloud metrics to climate projections results in similar estimates of the mean, but substantially-narrower ranges, of projected 21st century warming when compared with unconstrained simulations. The resulting projected global-mean warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014 is 2.84-5.12 K (5-95% range) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5, compared with a range of 2.34-5.81 K for unconstrained projections, and 0.60-1.70 K for SSP1-2.6, compared to an unconstrained range of 0.38-2.04 K. We provide evidence for a higher lower-bound of the projected warming range than that obtained from constrained projections based on the past global-mean temperature trend. Consideration of the impact of the sea surface temperature pattern effect on the recent observed warming trend, which is not well-captured in the CMIP6 ensemble, indicates that the relatively-low projected warming resulting from the global-mean temperature trend constraint may not be reliable and provides further justification for the use of climatologically-based cloud metrics to constrain projections.

Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals

Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH 4 )-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH 4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO 2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO 2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH 4 emissions starts to reverse CH 4 -induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual ‘CO 2 -equivalent’ emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO 2 and CH 4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using ‘warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)’.

Global warming and world soybean yields

The crop yield potential of world soybean from 2019 to 2028 has been projected using ARIMA model based on the yields from 1961 to 2018. Both annual global mean temperature and the yields of world soybean have been projected to rise during the ensuing decade 2019-2028. Projected average yields of world soybean varies from 2841 to 3276 kg ha-1 while 4324 to 4807 kg ha-1 in the case of top (national) yields of world soybean. Annual global mean temperatures may vary from 15.0 to 15.3oC and likely to exert positive impact on average yield (R squared = 0.80) while negative on top yield (R squared = 0.40) of world soybean. It may be concluded that for world soybean yields in 2019 to 2028, the opportunities for improving production should be dependent on both high and low-yielding countries as the yield remained between 30 and 70 per cent of potential limit i.e. in middle place around the turn-point of S-shaped curve in long-term trend partly affected by global warming.

The impact of stratospheric aerosol intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur experiment

As part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project a numerical experiment known as G6sulfur has been designed in which temperatures under a high-forcing future scenario (SSP5-8.5) are reduced to those under a medium-forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5) using the proposed geoengineering technique of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI). G6sulfur involves introducing sulphate aerosol into the tropical stratosphere where it reflects incoming sunlight back to space, thus cooling the planet. Here we compare the results from six Earth-system models which have performed the G6sulfur experiment and examine how SAI affects two important modes of natural variability, the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Although all models show that SAI is successful in reducing global-mean temperature as designed, they are also consistent in showing that it forces an increasingly positive phase of the NAO as the injection rate increases over the course of the 21st century, exacerbating precipitation reductions over parts of southern Europe compared with SSP5-8.5. In contrast to the robust result for the NAO there is less consistency for the impact on the QBO, but the results nevertheless indicate a risk that equatorial SAI could cause the QBO to stall and become locked in a phase with permanent westerly winds in the lower stratosphere.

When will the world be committed to 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming?

We investigate committed warming, i.e., the global mean temperature change that would follow complete cessation of anthropogenic emissions. The removal from the atmosphere of short-lived particulate aerosols, which have a cooling effect on the climate, leads to a peak in warming within a decade, followed by a slow decline over centuries to millennia to a relatively stable temperature determined by the residual CO2 forcing. This has important consequences: temporary warming well beyond present-day levels without any additional emissions. We use an emissions-based climate model (FaIR) to estimate temperature change after abrupt cessation of all anthropogenic emissions in 2021 and in every year thereafter until 2080, assuming that emissions prior to cessation proceed along priority Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We find that society may already be committed to peak warming of greater than 1.5°C with approximately 40% probability, with a small (2%) probability of peak warming greater than 2.0°C. The probability of being committed to 1.5°C increases to at least 50% by 2024. Taking into account short-lived climate forcers advances warming commitments by a half a decade, considerably reducing the remaining carbon budget. While an abrupt cessation of all anthropogenic emissions is not likely to occur, this idealized scenario provides a quantification of when we will be committed to exceeding key global warming levels while following realistic emissions scenarios.

The Inevitable One

This chapter considers processes we cannot reverse, at least in the short term: it is already too late. These are processes related to slow responses or feedbacks in the climate system, including ocean warming and sea-level rise, and they will continue to drive change whatever we do. As explained in the chapter, ocean warming operates on timescales of centuries and resulting changes in Earth’s major ice sheets take many centuries to millennia. Sea-level rise is caused by thermal expansion due to ocean warming and by reduction in the volume of land-based ice, due to global warming. Because of the timescales involved, the oceans will keep warming for centuries, dragging global mean temperature along with them, and sea level will also rise for many centuries to come. The chapter reviews the impacts of these processes, whose inevitability means that humanity has no choice but to adapt to them.

The Physical Climate at Global Warming Thresholds as seen in the UK Earth System Model

A key goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is to keep global mean temperature change at 2°C and if possible under 1.5°C by the end of the century. To investigate the likelihood of achieving this target, we calculate the year of exceedance of a given Global Warming Threshold (GWT) temperature across thirty-two CMIP6 models for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and radiative forcing combinations included in the Tier 1 ScenarioMIP simulations. Threshold exceedance year calculations reveal that a majority of CMIP6 models project warming beyond 2°C by the end of the century under every scenario or pathway apart from the lowest emission scenarios considered, SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 which is largely a function of the ScenarioMIP experiment design. The UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) ScenarioMIP projections are analysed in detail to assess the regional and seasonal variations in climate at different warming levels. The warming signal emerging by mid-century is identified as significant and distinct from internal climate variability in all scenarios considered and includes warming summers in the Mediterranean, drying in the Amazon and heavier Indian monsoons. Arctic sea-ice depletion results in prominent amplification of warming and tropical warming patterns emerge which are distinct from interannual variability. Climate changes projected for a 2°C warmer world are in almost all cases exacerbated with further global warming (e.g. to a 4°C warmer world).

Polyphony of Short-Term Climatic Variations

It is widely accepted to believe that humanity is mainly responsible for the worldwide temperature growth during the period of instrumental meteorological observations. This paper aims to demonstrate that it is not so simple. Using a wavelet analysis on the example of the time series of the global mean near-surface air temperature created at the American National Climate Data Center (NCDC), some complex structures of inter-annual to multidecadal global mean temperature variations were discovered. The origin of which seems to be better attributable to the Chandler wobble in the Earth’s Pole motion, the Luni-Solar nutation, and the solar activity cycles. Each of these external forces is individually known to climatologists. However, it is demonstrated for the first time that responses of the climate system to these external forces in their integrity form a kind of polyphony superimposed on a general warming trend. Certainly, the general warming trend as such remains to be unconsidered. However, its role is not very essential in the timescale of a few decades. Therefore, it is this polyphony that will determine climate evolution in the nearest future, i.e., during the time most important for humanity currently.

Exploring interaction effects from mechanisms between climate and land-use changes and the projected consequences on biodiversity

Changes in climate and land use are major drivers of biodiversity loss. These drivers likely interact and their mutual effects alter biodiversity. These interaction mechanisms are rarely considered in biodiversity assessments, as only the combined individual effects are reported. In this study, we explored interaction effects from mechanisms that potentially affect biodiversity under climate change. These mechanisms entail that climate-change effects on, for example, species abundance and species’ range shifts depend on land-use change. Similarly, land-use change impacts are contingent on climate change. We explored interaction effects from four mechanisms and projected their consequences on biodiversity. These interactions arise if species adapted to modified landscapes (e.g. cropland) differ in their sensitivity to climate change from species adapted to natural landscapes. We verified these interaction effects by performing a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of 42 bioclimatic studies (with different increases in global mean temperature) on species distributions in landscapes with varying cropland levels. We used the Fraction of Remaining Species as the effect-size metric in this meta-analysis. The influence of global mean temperature increase on FRS did not significantly change with different cropland levels. This finding excluded interaction effects between climate and landscapes that are modified by other land uses than cropping. Although we only assessed coarse climate and land-use patterns, global mean temperature increase was a good, significant model predictor for biodiversity decline. This emphasizes the need to analyse interactions between land-use and climate-change effects on biodiversity simultaneously in other modified landscapes. Such analyses should also integrate other conditions, such as spatial location, adaptive capacity and time lags. Understanding all these interaction mechanisms and other conditions will help to better project future biodiversity trends and to develop coping strategies for biodiversity conservation.