Development and external validation of a diagnostic model for in-hospital bleeding in patients with acute ST elevation myocardial infarction
AbstractBackgroundBleeding complications in patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are associated with an increased risk of subsequent adverse consequences. We want to develop and externally validate a diagnostic model of in-hospital bleeding in the population of unselected real-world patients with acute STEMI.MethodsDesign: Multivariable logistic regression of a cohort for hospitalized patients with acute STEMI. Setting: Emergency department ward of a university hospital. Participants: Diagnostic model development: Totally 4262 hospitalized patients with acute STEMI from January 2002 to December 2013 in Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University. External validation: Totally 6015 hospitalized patients with acute STEMI from January 2014 to August 2019 in Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University. Outcomes: All-cause in-hospital bleeding not related to coronary artery bypass graft surgery or catheterization.ResultsIn-hospital bleeding occurred in 2.6% (112/4262) of patients in the development data set (117/6015) of patients in the validation data set. The strongest predictors of in-hospital bleeding were advanced age and high Killip classification. We developed a diagnostic model of in-hospital bleeding. The area under the receiver operating characteristic ROC curve (AUC) was 0.777±0.021, 95% confidence interval(CI) = 0.73576 ~ 0.81823. We constructed a nomograms using the development database based on age, and Killip classification. The AUC was 0.7234±0.0252,95% CI = 0.67392 ~ 0.77289 in the validation data set. Discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis were satisfactory.ConclusionsWe developed and externally validated a moderate diagnostic model of in-hospital bleeding in patients with acute STEMI.We registered this study with WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (registration number: ChiCTR1900027578; registered date: 19 Novmober 2019). http://www.chictr.org.cn/edit.aspx?pid=45926&htm=4.