A hemifused complex is the hub in a network of pathways to membrane fusion
Membrane fusion is required for essential processes from neurotransmission to fertilization. For over 40 years protein-free fusion driven by calcium or other cationic species has provided a simplified model of biological fusion, but the mechanisms remain poorly understood. Cation-mediated membrane fusion and permeation are essential in their own right to drug delivery strategies based on cell-penetrating peptides or cation-bearing lipid nanoparticles. Experimental studies suggest cations drive anionic membranes to a hemifused intermediate which serves as a hub for a network of pathways, but the pathway selection mechanism is unknown. Here we develop a mathematical model that identifies the network hub as a highly dynamical hemifusion complex. We find multivalent cations drive expansion of a high tension hemifusion interface between interacting vesicles during a brief transient. During this window, rupture of the interface competes with vesicle membrane rupture to determine the outcome, either fusion, dead-end hemifusion or vesicle lysis. The model reproduces the unexplained finding that fusion of vesicles with planar membranes typically stalls at hemifusion, and we show that the equilibrated hemifused state is a novel lens-shaped complex. Thus, membrane fusion kinetics follow a stochastic trajectory within a network of pathways, with outcome weightings set by fusogen concentration, vesicle size, lipid composition and geometry.