Monetary and fiscal policy effects in South African economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 625-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Effects ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to see the macroeconomic effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThe joint effects of monetary and fiscal policy are analyzed by applying short-run contemporaneous restrictions for the identification of shocks in an SVAR in order to derive impulse response functions. Hence, a general AB model of (Amisano and Giannini, 1997) identification scheme, which is not recursive, is employed in this study.FindingsThe author shows that monetary tightening leads to a fall in real economic activity and depreciates the exchange rate. And in regard to the fiscal policy, the author calculates an initial government spending multiplier of 0.20, which later peaks at 0.40. The tax multiplier is almost 0 on impact and statistically insignificant. However, the author finds evidence supporting the existence of accommodative stance between monetary policy and fiscal policy, which is important for economic and political decision-making.Originality/valueEmpirical studies that deal with the joint effects of monetary and fiscal policy for South Africa through the SVAR framework are quite limited. This paper, therefore, contributes to the empirical literature on the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy like South Africa.

scholarly journals Monetary-fiscal policies interactions and optimal rules in Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-157
Author(s):  
Sherine Al-shawarby ◽  
Mai El Mossallamy
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

Purpose This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4 to assess monetary and fiscal policy interactions and their impact on economic stabilization. Outcomes of monetary and fiscal authority commitment to policy instruments, interest rate, government spending and taxes, are evaluated using Taylor-type and optimal simple rules. Design/methodology/approach The study extends the stylized micro-founded small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model, proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), by explicitly introducing fiscal policy behavior into the model (Fragetta and Kirsanova, 2010 and Çebi, 2011). The model is calibrated using quarterly data for Egypt on key macroeconomic variables during FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4; and Bayesian methods are used in estimation. Findings The results show that monetary and fiscal policy instruments in Egypt contribute to economic stability through their effects on inflation, output and debt stock. The monetary policy Taylor rule estimates reveal that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) attaches significant importance to anti-inflationary policy and (to a lesser extent) to output targeting but responds weakly to nominal exchange rate variations. CBE decisions are significantly influenced by interest rate smoothing. Egyptian fiscal policy has an important role in output and government debt stabilization. Additionally, the fiscal authority chooses pro-cyclical government spending and counter-cyclical tax policies for output stabilization. Again, past values of the fiscal instruments are influential in the evolution of the future fiscal policy-making process. Originality/value A few studies have examined the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Egypt within a unified framework. The presented paper integrates the monetary and fiscal policy analysis within a unified dynamic general equilibrium open economy rational expectations framework. Without such a framework, it would not be easy to jointly analyze monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms for output, inflation and debt. Also, it would be neither possible to contrast the outcome of monetary and fiscal authorities commitment to a simple Taylor instrument rule vis-à-vis optimal policy outcomes nor to assess the behavior of monetary and fiscal agents in macroeconomic stability in context of an active/passive policy decisions framework.

The effect of government spending innovations on the Ethiopian economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-121
Author(s):  
Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher ◽  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Recursive Identification ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Size Of Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Identification Scheme ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Capital Spending

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of government spending components’ multipliers for the Ethiopian economy over the sample period of 2001Q1 up to 2017Q4. Design/methodology/approach The effects of government spending are analyzed by applying short-run contemporaneous restrictions for the identification of shocks in an SVAR in order to estimate multipliers for the small open economy. Accordingly, recursive identification scheme is used in this study. Findings From the impulse response functions, the authors found that aggregate government spending is less effective in stimulating the economy for the study period as evidenced by almost zero multipliers. This can be due to many structural and conjunctural factors that tend to lower the multiplier effects. At a disaggregate level, real GDP responds negatively to capital spending while its effect on recurrent spending is positive and insignificant on impact. The variation to real GDP is best explained by the variation in capital spending as compared to recurrent spending. Originality/value Though almost none in number, little research has been conducted in Ethiopia related to the effect of government spending shock on output. But this research deviates from the previous study by introducing a new methodology which is SVAR with cholesky decomposition. The previous study, however, used Bayesian VAR. Besides to that, using cholesky identification scheme, government spending is decomposed in to recurrent and capital spending to see the effect of government spending components on output and government spending multipliers are also computed both at an aggregate and disaggregate level.

scholarly journals Fiscal and monetary policy in new Keynesian DSGE models

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Πέτρος Βαρθαλίτης
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy

This thesis is about monetary and fiscal policy in New Keynesian DSGE models. Chapter 2 presents the baseline New Keynesian DSGE model. Monetary policy is in the form of a simple interest rate Taylor-type policy rule, while fiscal policy is exogenous. Chapter 3 extends the model of Chapter 2 to include fiscal policy. Now, both monetary and fiscal policy are allowed to follow feedback rules. Chapter 4 sets up a New Keynesian model of a semi-small open economy with sovereign risk premia. Finally, Chapter 5 builds a New Keynesian DSGE model consisting of two heterogeneous countries participating in a monetary union.Throughout most of the thesis, policy is conducted via "simple", "implementable" and "optimized" feedback policy rules. Using such rules, the aim of policy is twofold: firslty, it aims to stabilize the economy when the latter is hit by shocks; secondly, it aims to improve the economy's resource allocation.

scholarly journals THE TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS OF FISCAL POLICY IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben J. Heijdra ◽  
Jenny E. Ligthart
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Infinite Horizon ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Lump Sum ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

We study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of fiscal shocks under lump-sum tax financing. To this end, we develop an intertemporal macroeconomic model for a small open economy, featuring monopolistic competition in the intermediate goods market, endogenous (intertemporal) labor supply, and finitely lived households. Fiscal shocks are shown to yield endogenously determined (dampened) cycles for a realistic calibration of the model. Impulse response functions of fiscal policy shocks in the finite-horizon model differ substantially from those resulting from an infinitely lived representative agent model. This can be explained by the presence of Ethier-productivity effects, which increase the size of long-run output multipliers to a greater extent in the infinite-horizon model.

scholarly journals Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary and Fiscal Polic Coordination Analysis – The Case of Serbia

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-173
Author(s):  
Tamara Bašić Vasiljev
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Financial Dollarization ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

AbstractWe present a new-Keynesian model for small open economy, with price rigidities stemming from a Calvo pricing scheme (1983), monopolistic banking system, financial dollarization of the economy and monetary and fiscal policy governed by rules. We estimate the model on Serbian data and propose various model extensions that could be used for monetary and fiscal policy analysis. We consider 6 combinations of monetary and fiscal policy regimes, inflation targeting and currency peg on one hand, and discretionary cyclically neutral fiscal policy and fiscal rules, on the other. The model with inflation targeting and discretionary fiscal policy fits the data best.

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