Are the macroeconomic effects on oil price asymmetric? An asymmetric quantile regression approach

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to the clarification of whether the dependence and causality between oil and the macrofundamentals change across different quantiles of the distribution function. Design/methodology/approach Within the context of an asymmetric quantile approach, we drop the assumption that variables operate at the upper tails of the distribution in the way that they operate at the mean. Findings Our innovative approach indicates that the response of oil prices not only differs according to the underlying source of the variables shock but also differs across the quantiles. Originality/value Although a number of recent studies are closely related to our present research, our novel findings offer some important insights that foreshadow the empirical results. The current research addresses to answer the following questions, in sequence: (i) Is there any extreme value dependence between the crude oil and macroeconomic variables? If yes, (ii) is the dependence symmetric or asymmetric? Finally, (iii) can this dependence be driven by the phases of the economic cycle?

The Economic Impact of Investment in Renewables in Croatia by 2030

At the beginning of 2020, the Strategy of the Republic of Croatia until 2030 with an outlook to 2050 was adopted. The Strategy analyzes two energy transition scenarios, the accelerated energy transition and the moderate energy transition. The Strategy is guided and defined by goals set out by the European Union (EU), which primarily states to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase the share of renewable energy sources. In order to reach these goals, it is necessary to substitute fossil fuel capacities with new capacities for the production of electricity from renewable sources. In order to do so, a new wave of investments is needed. The Strategy does not detail the macroeconomic effects of investments in renewable sources on the Croatian economy, generally quantified through GDP growth and employment. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of announced investments in renewable energy sources for electricity production. The analysis encompasses the time period 2021–2030. The effects are quantified using the input–output tables for Croatia. The analysis exhibits relatively modest macroeconomic effects of investments into renewable energy on the Croatian economy. The paper concludes that it is necessary to change the structure and dynamics of investment in renewable energy. First, the investment should go into sources with the highest domestic component in investments and at the same time develop production capacities in technologies and equipment production for wind and solar capacities.