Cryptocurrencies and portfolio diversification in an emerging market

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lehlohonolo Letho ◽  
Grieve Chelwa ◽  
Abdul Latif Alhassan
Keyword(s):  
Market Economy ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Variance

PurposeThis paper examines the effect of cryptocurrencies on the portfolio risk-adjusted returns of traditional and alternative investments within an emerging market economy.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs daily arithmetic returns from August 2015 to October 2018 of traditional assets (stocks, bonds, currencies), alternative assets (commodities, real estate) and cryptocurrencies. Using the mean-variance analysis, the Sharpe ratio, the conditional value-at-risk and the mean-variance spanning tests.FindingsThe paper documents evidence to support the diversification benefits of cryptocurrencies by utilising the mean-variance tests, improving the efficient frontier and the risk-adjusted returns of the emerging market economy portfolio of investments.Practical implicationsThis paper firmly broadens the Modern Portfolio Theory by authenticating cryptocurrencies as assets with diversification benefits in an emerging market economy investment portfolio.Originality/valueAs far as the authors are concerned, this paper presents the first evidence of the effect of diversification benefits of cryptocurrencies on emerging market asset portfolios constructed using traditional and alternative assets.

scholarly journals Comparative analysis between global sukuk and bond indices: value-at-risk approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1245-1256
Author(s):  
Rubaiyat Ahsan Bhuiyan ◽  
Maya Puspa ◽  
Buerhan Saiti ◽  
Gairuzazmi Mat Ghani
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Financial Contracts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Approach ◽  
Bond Indices

Purpose Sukuk is an innovative financial instrument with a flexible structure based on Islamic financial contracts, unlike a bond which is based on the structure of a loan imposed with interest. With the notion that sukuk differs considerably from the conventional bonds in terms of risks related to investment, this study aims to examine whether the sukuk market is different from conventional bond markets based on the value-at-risk (VaR) approach. Design/methodology/approach The VaR of a portfolio consists of sukuk and bond indices and is undertaken to determine whether there is any reduction in the VaR amount through the inclusion of the sukuk index in the portfolio. The analysis is undertaken based on the developed and emerging market bond and sukuk indices from January 2010 to December 2015. Findings This paper examines whether the VaR of sukuk market differs from conventional bond markets by using fundamental techniques. It was observed that the VaR amount of sukuk indices is comparatively much lower than the VaR of bond indices in all the cases. Including the sukuk index with each bond index can reduce the VaR of the portfolio by around 30 to 50 per cent for all the developed and emerging market bond indices. Research limitations/implications This research is limited to covering six years of data. Nonetheless, it is able to provide findings which are believed to be useful for the market players. Practical implications This study unveils attractive opportunities in terms of diversification benefits of sukuk indices for international fixed-income portfolios. Originality/value The VaR method is a useful risk management tool. This study uses this method to emphasise the significant reduction of risks and diversification benefits that sukuk investment could offer by including it in the investment portfolio.

Prescriptive portfolio selection: a compromise between fast and slow thinking

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Momen ◽  
Akbar Esfahanipour ◽  
Abbas Seifi
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Fast System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Selection For ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Prescriptive Analysis

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a prescriptive portfolio selection (PPS) model based on a compromise between the idea of “fast” and “slow” thinking proposed by Kahneman. Design/methodology/approach“Fast” thinking is effortless and comfortable for investors, while “slow” thinking may result in better performance. These two systems are related to the first two types of analysis in the decision theory: descriptive, normative and prescriptive analysis. However, to compromise between “fast” and “slow” thinking, “overconfidence” is used as a weighting parameter. A case study including a sample of 161 active investors in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is provided. Moreover, the feasibility and optimality of the model are discussed. FindingsResults show that the PPS recommendations are efficient with a shift from the mean-variance efficient frontier; investors prefer PPS portfolios over the advisor recommendations; and investors have no significant preference between PPS and their own expectations. Research limitations/implicationsTwo assumptions of this study include: first, investors follow their “fast” system of thinking by themselves. Second, the investors’ “slow” system of thinking is represented by advisor recommendations which are simple expected value of risk and return. Therefore, considering these two assumptions for any application is the main limitation of this study. Moreover, the authors did not have access to more investors in TSE or other financial markets. Originality/valueThis is the first study that includes overconfidence in modeling portfolio selection for the purpose of achieving a portfolio that has a reasonable performance and one that investors are comfortable with.

scholarly journals Maximum Varma Entropy Distribution with Conditional Value at Risk Constraints

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 663
Author(s):  
Chang Liu ◽  
Chuo Chang ◽  
Zhe Chang
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Lagrangian Multipliers ◽  
Variance Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Variance

It is well known that Markowitz’s mean-variance model is the pioneer portfolio selection model. The mean-variance model assumes that the probability density distribution of returns is normal. However, empirical observations on financial markets show that the tails of the distribution decay slower than the log-normal distribution. The distribution shows a power law at tail. The variance of a portfolio may also be a random variable. In recent years, the maximum entropy method has been widely used to investigate the distribution of return of portfolios. However, the mean and variance constraints were still used to obtain Lagrangian multipliers. In this paper, we use Conditional Value at Risk constraints instead of the variance constraint to maximize the entropy of portfolios. Value at Risk is a financial metric that estimates the risk of an investment. Value at Risk measures the level of financial risk within a portfolio. The metric is most commonly used by investment bank to determine the extent and occurrence ratio of potential losses in portfolios. Value at Risk is a single number that indicates the extent of risk in a given portfolio. This makes the risk management relatively simple. The Value at Risk is widely used in investment bank and commercial bank. It has already become an accepted standard in buying and selling assets. We show that the maximum entropy distribution with Conditional Value at Risk constraints is a power law. Algebraic relations between the Lagrangian multipliers and Value at Risk constraints are presented explicitly. The Lagrangian multipliers can be fixed exactly by the Conditional Value at Risk constraints.

Portfolio optimization based on modified expected shortfall

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 440-463
Author(s):  
Deepak Jadhav ◽  
T.V. Ramanathan
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Portfolio Optimization ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Natural Extension ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Expected Shortfall ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Variance

Purpose An investor is expected to analyze the market risk while investing in equity stocks. This is because the investor has to choose a portfolio which maximizes the return with a minimum risk. The mean-variance approach by Markowitz (1952) is a dominant method of portfolio optimization, which uses variance as a risk measure. The purpose of this paper is to replace this risk measure with modified expected shortfall, defined by Jadhav et al. (2013). Design/methodology/approach Modified expected shortfall introduced by Jadhav et al. (2013) is found to be a coherent risk measure under univariate and multivariate elliptical distributions. This paper presents an approach of portfolio optimization based on mean-modified expected shortfall for the elliptical family of distributions. Findings It is proved that the modified expected shortfall of a portfolio can be represented in the form of expected return and standard deviation of the portfolio return and modified expected shortfall of standard elliptical distribution. The authors also establish that the optimum portfolio through mean-modified expected shortfall approach exists and is located within the efficient frontier of the mean-variance portfolio. The results have been empirically illustrated using returns from stocks listed in National Stock Exchange of India, Shanghai Stock Exchange of China, London Stock Exchange of the UK and New York Stock Exchange of the USA for the period February 2005-June 2018. The results are found to be consistent across all the four stock markets. Originality/value The mean-modified expected shortfall portfolio approach presented in this paper is new and is a natural extension of the Markowitz’s mean-variance and mean-expected shortfall portfolio optimization discussed by Deng et al. (2009).

The Risk Parity Approach Applied to Agricultural Commodities

2017 ◽  
pp. 222-257
Author(s):  
Denis Veliu
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Risk Parity ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Risk Contribution ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Data Estimation ◽  
Special Case

The recent years were hard for commodities, with most suffering of high losses. The uncertainty of the financial markets after the 2008 crisis has pushed in the interest of finding new way of diversification. With the Risk Parity or Equally Weighted Risk Contribution strategy, Maillard, Roncalli, and Teiletche (2008) suggested a method that maximize the diversification. These authors have applied this strategy to the volatility (standard deviation). In this chapter, the author describes how to apply Risk Parity to the Conditional Value at Risk using historical data estimation. Passing to CVaR, a coherent measure, the model can benefit from its properties with the needed assumptions. As a special case, the author has applied this method to an agricultural portfolio, compared the Risk Parity strategies with each other and with the Mean Variance and Conditional Value at Risk. An important part is the analysis of the riskiness, the diversification and the turnover. A portfolio with a certain numbers of agricultural commodities may have particular specified that an investor requires.

Institution building and institutional voids

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheila M. Puffer ◽  
Daniel J McCarthy ◽  
Alfred M Jaeger
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Institutional Theory ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Institution Building ◽  
Institutional Voids ◽  
Formal Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bric Countries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a comparative analysis of institutions and institutional voids in Russia, Brazil, and Poland over the decades of the 1980s through to 2015. The paper asserts that Russia and Brazil could learn much from Poland regarding formal institution building and formal institutional voids that cause problems like corruption and limit economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – A comparative case study approach is utilized to assess the relative success of the three emerging market countries in transitioning to a market economy, viewed through the lens of institutional theory. Findings – Poland’s experience in building successful formal institutions and mitigating major institutional voids can be instructive for Russia and Brazil which have shown far less success, and correspondingly less sustained economic growth. Research limitations/implications – This paper demonstrates the value of applying institutional theory to analyze the progress of emerging economies in transitioning to a market economy. Practical implications – This country comparison can prove valuable to other emerging economies seeking a successful transition to a market economy. Social implications – Since institutions are the fabric of any society, the emphasis on institutions in this paper can have positive implications for society in emerging markets. Originality/value – This paper is an original comparison of two BRIC countries with a smaller emerging economy, utilizing institutional theory. Factors contributing to Poland’s success are compared to Russia and Brazil to assess how those countries might be positively informed by Poland’s experience in building and strengthening sustainable formal institutions as well as avoiding institutional voids and their associated problems.

scholarly journals Abnormal Portfolio Asset Allocation Model: Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-54
Author(s):  
Nurfadhlina Bt Abdul Halima ◽  
Dwi Susanti ◽  
Alit Kartiwa ◽  
Endang Soeryana Hasbullah
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
Higher Moments ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Model Review ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Skewness And Kurtosis ◽  
Normally Distributed

It has been widely studied how investors will allocate their assets to an investment when the return of assets is normally distributed. In this context usually, the problem of portfolio optimization is analyzed using mean-variance. When asset returns are not normally distributed, the mean-variance analysis may not be appropriate for selecting the optimum portfolio. This paper will examine the consequences of abnormalities in the process of allocating investment portfolio assets. Here will be shown how to adjust the mean-variance standard as a basic framework for asset allocation in cases where asset returns are not normally distributed. We will also discuss the application of the optimum strategies for this problem. Based on the results of literature studies, it can be concluded that the expected utility approximation involves averages, variances, skewness, and kurtosis, and can be extended to even higher moments.

Portfolio optimization using the generalized reduced gradient nonlinear algorithm

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 570-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dima Waleed Hanna Alrabadi
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Optimization ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Arab World ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Optimization Framework ◽  
Monthly Return ◽  
Reduced Gradient ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Generalized Reduced Gradient ◽  
Mean Variance

Purpose This study aims to utilize the mean–variance optimization framework of Markowitz (1952) and the generalized reduced gradient (GRG) nonlinear algorithm to find the optimal portfolio that maximizes return while keeping risk at minimum. Design/methodology/approach This study applies the portfolio optimization concept of Markowitz (1952) and the GRG nonlinear algorithm to a portfolio consisting of the 30 leading stocks from the three different sectors in Amman Stock Exchange over the period from 2009 to 2013. Findings The selected portfolios achieve a monthly return of 5 per cent whilst keeping risk at minimum. However, if the short-selling constraint is relaxed, the monthly return will be 9 per cent. Moreover, the GRG nonlinear algorithm enables to construct a portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 7.4. Practical implications The results of this study are vital to both academics and practitioners, specifically the Arab and Jordanian investors. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study in Jordan and in the Arab world that constructs optimum portfolios based on the mean–variance optimization framework of Markowitz (1952) and the GRG nonlinear algorithm.

PORTFOLIO MODEL UNDER FRACTAL MARKET BASED ON MEAN-DCCA

Fractals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (07) ◽  
pp. 2050142
Author(s):  
WEIDE CHUN ◽  
HESEN LI ◽  
XU WU
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Solution ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Risk Criterion ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Variance Portfolio ◽  
Mean Variance

Under the realistic background that the capital market nowadays is a fractal market, this paper embeds the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) into the return-risk criterion to construct a Mean-DCCA portfolio model, and gives an analytical solution. Based on this, the validity of Mean-DCCA portfolio model is verified by empirical analysis. Compared to the mean-variance portfolio model, the Mean-DCCA portfolio model is more conducive for investors to build a sophisticated investment portfolio under multi-time-scale, improve the performance of portfolios, and overcome the defect that the mean-variance portfolio model has not considered the existence of fractal correlation characteristics between assets.

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