scholarly journals The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-76
Author(s):  
Yousra Trichilli ◽  
Mouna Boujelbène Abbes ◽  
Sabrine Zouari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Search Queries ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Tunisian Revolution ◽  
Google Search

PurposeThis paper examines the impact of political instability on the investors' behavior, measured by Google search queries, and on the dynamics of stock market returns.Design/methodology/approachFirst, by using the DCC-GARCH model, the authors examine the effect of investor sentiment on the Tunisian stock market return. Second, the authors employ the fully modified dynamic ordinary least square method (FMOL) to estimate the long-term relationship between investor sentiment and Tunisian stock market return. Finally, the authors use the wavelet coherence model to test the co-movement between investor sentiment measured by Google Trends and Tunisian stock market return.FindingsUsing the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), the authors find that Google search queries index has the ability to reflect political events especially the Tunisian revolution. In addition, empirical results of fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method reveal that Google search queries index has a slightly higher effect on Tunindex return after the Tunisian revolution than before this revolution. Furthermore, by employing wavelet coherence model, the authors find strong comovement between Google search queries index and return index during the period of the Tunisian revolution political instability. Moreover, in the frequency domain, strong coherence can be found in less than four months and in 16–32 months during the Tunisian revolution which show that the Google search queries measure was leading over Tunindex return. In fact, wavelet coherence analysis confirms the result of DCC that Google search queries index has the ability to detect the behavior of Tunisian investors especially during the period of political instability.Research limitations/implicationsThis study provides empirical evidence to portfolio managers that may use Google search queries index as a robust measure of investor's sentiment to select a suitable investment and to make an optimal investments decisions.Originality/valueThe important research question of how political instability affects stock market dynamics has been neglected by scholars. This paper attempts principally to fill this void by investigating the time-varying interactions between market returns, volatility and Google search based index, especially during Tunisian revolution.

scholarly journals A note on the relationship between COVID-19 and stock market return: evidence from South Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Arafat Rahman ◽  
Md Mohsan Khudri ◽  
Muhammad Kamran ◽  
Pakeezah Butt
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The transformation of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) from a regional health crisis in a Chinese city to a global pandemic has caused severe damage not only to the natural and economic lives of human beings but also to the financial markets. The rapidly pervading and daunting consequences of COVID-19 spread have plummeted the stock markets to their lowest levels in many decades especially in South Asia. This concern motivates us to investigate the stock markets’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic in four South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. This study aims to investigate the causal impact of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on stock market returns using panel data of the countries stated above. Design/methodology/approach This study collects and analyzes the daily data on COVID-19 spread and stock market return over the period May 28, 2020 to October 01, 2020. Using Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test, the empirical results demonstrate that the COVID-19 spread measured through its daily confirmed cases in a country significantly induces stock market return. This paper cross-validates the results using the pairwise Granger causality test. Findings The empirical results suggest unidirectional causality from COVID-19 to stock market returns, indicating that the spread of COVID-19 has a dominant short-term influence on the stock movements. To the best of the knowledge, this study provides the first empirical insights into the impact of COVID-19 on the stock markets of selected South Asian countries taking the cross-sectional dependence into account. The results are also in line with the findings of other existing literature on COVID-19. Moreover, the results are robust across the two tests used in this study. Originality/value The findings are equally insightful to the fund managers and investors in South Asian countries. Taking into account the possible impact of COVID-19 on stock markets’ returns, investors can design their optimal portfolios more effectively. This study has another important implication in the sense that the impact of COVID-19 on the stock markets of South Asian countries may have spillover effects on other developing or even developed countries.

Investor Pessimism and the German Stock Market: Exploring Google Search Queries

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Dimpfl ◽  
Vladislav Kleiman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Search Queries ◽  
Retail Investor ◽  
German Stock ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Google Search ◽  
German Stock Market

Abstract We analyze the relationship of retail investor sentiment and the German stock market by introducing four distinct investor pessimism indices (IPIs) based on selected aggregate Google search queries. We assess the predictive power of weekly changes in sentiment captured by the IPIs for contemporaneous and future DAX returns, volatility and trading volume. The indices are found to have individually varying, but overall remarkably high explanatory power. An increase in retail investor pessimism is accompanied by decreasing contemporaneous market returns and an increase in volatility and trading volume. Future returns tend to increase while future volatility and trading volume decrease. The outcome is in line with the conjecture of correction effects. Overall, the results are well in line with modern investor sentiment theory.

scholarly journals Nexus Between COVID-19 Infections, Exchange Rates, Stock Market Return, and Temperature in G7 Countries: Novel Insights From Partial and Multiple Wavelet Coherence

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjeet Singh ◽  
Pooja Bansal ◽  
Nav Bhardwaj ◽  
Anirudh Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

This study attempts to analyze the time-varying pattern between the exchange rates, stock market return, temperature, and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in G7 countries caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We have implemented our analysis using wavelet coherence and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) on independent variables from January 4, 2021 to July 31, 2021. This paper contributes to the earlier work on the same subject by employing wavelet coherence to analyze the effect of the sudden upsurge of the COVID-19 pandemic on exchange rates, stock market returns, and temperature to sustain and improve previous results regarding correlation analysis between the above-mentioned variables. We arrived at the following results: 1) temperature levels and confirmed COVID-19 cases are cyclical indicating daily temperatures have a material bearing on propagating the novel coronavirus in G7 nations; 2) noteworthy correlations at truncated frequencies show that a material long-term impact has been observed on exchange rates and stock market returns of G7 and confirmed COVID-19 cases; 3) accounting for impact of temperature and equity market returns, a more robust co-movement is observed between the exchange rate returns of the respective nations and the surge in COVID-19 cases; and 4) accounting for the influence of temperature and exchange rate returns and the increase in the confirmed number of coronavirus-infected cases and equity returns, co-movements are more pronounced. Besides academic contributions, this paper offers insight for policymakers and investment managers alike in their attempt to navigate the impediments created by the coronavirus in their already arduous task of shaping the economy and predicting stock market patterns.

Impact of board gender diversity on firm risk

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 787-803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Jane Lenard ◽  
Bing Yu ◽  
E. Anne York ◽  
Shengxiong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Board Of Directors ◽  
Corporate Performance ◽  
Gender Diversity ◽  
Firm Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
The Board Of Directors ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study gender diversity on the board of directors and the relation to risk management and corporate performance as measured by the variability of stock market return. Design/methodology/approach – The sample consists of companies from the RiskMetrics database from 2007 to 2011. This database contains information on corporate board of directors. Financial variables were collected from the Compustat database and CRSP database for the years 2005-2011. The authors then measure the effect of gender diversity on corporate performance in terms of firm risk, using the model by Cheng (2008) which measures the variability of stock market return. Findings – The study shows that more gender diversity on the board of directors impacts firm risk by contributing to lower variability of stock market return. The higher the percentage of female directors on the board, the lower the variability of corporate performance. Originality/value – The research design and findings assist in providing additional evidence about the role of women in corporate leadership positions and the association with corporate performance. The approach combines Cheng's (2008) model of stock market variability with the impact of gender diversity on the board of directors.

Does investor sentiment differently affect stocks in different sectors? Evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongli Niu ◽  
Yao Lu ◽  
Weiqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Frequency Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Normal Period

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between the investor sentiment and the return of various sectors in the Chinese stock market.Design/methodology/approachThe wavelet coherence and wavelet phase angle approaches are used to study the lead–lag associations between sentiment index and stock returns in a time–frequency way. The multiscale linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are performed to explore whether there is a causality between them.FindingsThe empirical results show that during normal period, investor sentiment index has a stronger relationship with stock returns of industrials, consumer discretionary, health care, utilities, real estate and financial sectors. In crisis period, investor sentiment has a significant positive relationship with all industry sectors. In the short term, there is bidirectional causality between investor sentiment and stock returns of all sectors. In the medium and long run, almost all sector stock returns Granger-cause the investors' sentiment index but investor sentiment does not Granger-cause all sectors, which is in contrast to the developed markets.Practical implicationsThe interindustry impact of investment sentiment on the stock market can help construct arbitrage portfolio by investors who are interested in Chinese stock market.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on the industry sector differences of investor sentiment impact on the Chinese stock market. As far as the authors know, this is the first paper to explore the time–frequency relationship between sentiment index and industry stock returns in China using the time–frequency method based on wavelet coherence, which considers the heterogeneity of different types of investors' responses to various economic and financial events.

scholarly journals Celebrity endorsement and stock market return

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 529-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine Prentice ◽  
Lei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Celebrity Endorsement ◽  
Financial Return ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Event Study Method

Purpose Celebrity endorsement advertising receives increased attention in the relevant literature. Approaching from the abnormal stock market return perspective, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential risks and expected profit associated with celebrity endorsement. The factors that are included in this investigation are the attributes relating to celebrities and the endorsed firms. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected from over 300 firms that use celebrity endorsements and are listed in two of the biggest stock exchanges in China. The study uses the event study method to analyze the proposed relationships. Findings Some of the findings in the current study are consistent with or contrast to those in previous research. Specifically, this study finds that the celebrities’ demographics such as age and gender have little influence on financial return of the endorsed firm. However, investors respond rather negatively toward using actor celebrities to endorse a product or a brand, especially for high-tech products. The match-up endorsement has a positive effect on the firm’s abnormal return. Research limitations/implications The current study has implications for the relevant literature and practitioners. Very few studies have used stock market return to measure celebrity endorsement effectiveness. This study provides insights into the influence of various factors associating with celebrities and the endorsed firm, extending the celebrity endorsement research into a broader domain. In particular, this study has practical implications for firms that have used or intend to use actor celebrity endorsement. Originality/value This study is the first to use event study method to comprehensively analyze influence of attributes relating to both the celebrities and the endorsed firms in China on stock market return.

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