Mozambique juggles new interests and old problems

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Traditional Agriculture ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Debt Stress ◽  
Fiscal Risks

Subject Mozambique's new government. Significance President Filipe Nyusi on January 17 unveiled his first cabinet. The line-up marks a break with the administration of former President Armando Guebuza, but balances competing factions within the ruling FRELIMO party. The new government's main focus will be to turn offshore natural gas discoveries into liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Declines in FRELIMO's electoral support indicate pressure to demonstrate more inclusive benefits than has been the case with previous mega-projects. Impacts Lower prices for traditional (agriculture) and megaproject exports (coal, aluminium) will continue; last year exports fell by 8.4%. With mining under stress, companies may delay production expansion planned to take place after the completion of the Nacala railway. For the short term, fiscal risks are greater than debt stress -- particular given 2014 election-related spending.

Asian gas market set for fundamental change

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
Gas Markets ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Liquefied Gas

Subject Asian liquefied gas markets. Significance India has overtaken South Korea as the second-largest buyer of spot and short-term cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with the percentage of its LNG imports from such cargoes -- based on contracts of four years or less -- rising by 45% in 2015 over 2014. With global gas prices likely to remain low through to 2020, transforming what was a seller's market only two years ago into a buyer's market, a structural shift is underway in the demand for imported LNG in South and East Asia. Impacts The pipeline of new LNG supplies that will be added to the market in the next few years will ensure a buyer's market through to 2020. A persistently low global price could see Asian buyers opting for smaller volumes and shorter contracts for LNG imports. Sustainability of demand growth in new markets such as India will depend on the speed of expansion of infrastructure.

Gas prices expose Europe’s energy vulnerability

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indigenous Production ◽  
Europe Today ◽  
The Cost

Significance The cost of gas-fired generation sets the electricity price in much of Europe today. Falling indigenous production has left Europe reliant on gas imports and exposed it to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices set by fast-recovering China. This has left retail-only electricity suppliers vulnerable and increases the risk that falling disposable incomes will undermine post-pandemic recovery. Impacts EU carbon allowance prices will stay strong. Higher energy prices will stoke inflation amid a fragile recovery, posing a dilemma for central banks. Rising gas prices have had ancillary but potentially alarming impacts as some fertiliser and CO2 producers have shut in production.

Algeria-Morocco pipeline closure could add to tensions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
East Mediterranean ◽  
Content Type

Significance The pipeline transit agreement is set to expire at the end of October. It comes as tensions between Morocco and Algeria have escalated, with the latter cutting diplomatic ties with Rabat and closing its airspace to Moroccan airplanes. Impacts Algeria will argue that trans-Morocco gas can be replaced with extra volumes via the Medgaz line and with liquefied natural gas. The supply implications mainly affect Spain and Morocco, and will have little relevance for other European gas projects. In the East Mediterranean, the costs of a pipeline to Europe remain prohibitively high.

New Tanzanian government’s focus may shift

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Rare Earths ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Agenda

Significance Magufuli and the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) have entered 2021 on a high, having swept the October 31 elections and essentially removed all vestiges of opposition to their power. They now need to deliver on their ambitious development agenda. Impacts Crackdowns against the opposition, civil society and other critics will intensify. Persistent bottlenecks in government suggest progress towards a flagship USD30bn liquefied natural gas project may remain slow. Reports that Tanzania is close to finalising a deal for its first ever rare earths mine could give Magufuli’s agenda an early boost.

Russia will increase covert Baltic interference

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Lightning Strike ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Military Exercise

Significance In line with such concerns, Estonia held a large military exercise, Hedgehog, on May 4-15, involving 13,000 troops. On May 6, Lithuania launched Lightning Strike, a military exercise involving 3,000 troops in a simulated defence of the country's new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at Klaipeda. In December, Latvia said Russian submarines had approached its maritime borders more than 50 times in the past year. However, Russia's more overt activities also pose a major risk to the Baltics. Impacts Russian intelligence will continue to target not just Baltic secrets but, through them, NATO and EU ones. Russian operations will aim to create division by playing on discontent within sizeable ethnic Russian minorities who feel marginalised. NATO will increase the rate and size of Baltic drills to reassure the Baltic states.

Russia's Asian gas pivot will progress slowly

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
East Siberia ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Price Discounts ◽  
The Past ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Outlook for Russia-Asia gas ties. Significance Last year, Russia's President Vladimir Putin signed a 30 year deal worth 400 billion dollars to sell 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) yearly of natural gas to China, starting in 2018-19. Gazprom will have to build the 4,000 kilometres 'Power of Siberia' pipeline. The deal is the cornerstone of Russia's pivot towards Asia. Other elements include the East Siberia Pacific Oil Pipeline, the liberalisation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and the planned second pipeline to China via the Altai Western route. However, the past year's events are frustrating Moscow's ambitions. Whether Russia succeeds or not bears implications for the global gas industry. Impacts By 2035, over 30% of Russia's gas exports will go to Asia. Liquefaction technologies are not on the sanctions list, but they might be if sanctions were widened. To seal the Altai deal, Russia will have to grant price discounts to make the offer too good to refuse.

Latin America's LNG drive could quickly lose momentum

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Source ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Gas Storage ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Phenomenon ◽  
Gas Balance

Subject Energy diversification efforts. Significance The El Nino weather phenomenon has laid bare the vulnerabilities of South America's dependence on hydropower. Gas has been the primary back-up, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity a strategic necessity (one which the northern part of the continent lacks). However, a recovery in Argentine gas production could eventually change the region's current gas balance, while the growth of renewables offers a new, indigenous, low-cost energy source. Impacts Investment in LNG import capacity and gas storage will continue. However, facilities face the threat of low utilisation as renewables capacity and domestic gas production increases. As one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation with a large amount of unexploited resource, hydropower will expand. States will gradually look towards other forms of system flexibility and grid resilience.

Russia on track for 2017 Yamal gas launch

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Siberian Arctic ◽  
Strong Position ◽  
Legislative Amendments

Subject Russia's ambitious liquefied natural gas project. Significance The first liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia's landmark Yamal LNG project is expected to be shipped by October. Yamal, in the Siberian Arctic, is enhancing an already strong position as a global gas exporter with the establishment of LNG production, an area in which Russia previously had limited expertise. The project weakens Gazprom's monopoly on gas exports and shows the Kremlin's willingness to accommodate private companies such as Novatek that can demonstrate success. Impacts Yamal LNG's successful start suggests that Novatek bids to develop other LNG sites will receive a favourable hearing. Novatek's access to other LNG projects may require further legislative amendments. Gazprom's Yamal production, with gas transported by pipeline, is intended to replace ageing western Siberian fields.

Pakistan’s regasification capacity will increase

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
Natural Gas Vehicle ◽  
Power Shortages ◽  
Gas Supply

Subject Pakistan's LNG imports and natural gas supply. Significance Pakistan in July claimed it could become one of the top five purchasers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2022. The country is looking to address growing gas demand and reduce capital outflows for fuel oil and diesel imports; regasification facilities are required to convert LNG back to natural gas at atmospheric pressure. Impacts Fewer power shortages would decrease protests, especially prevalent in summer months, over blackouts. Pakistan’s natural gas vehicle sector could see a rejuvenation, curbing gasoline and diesel demand. Increased LNG use in domestic fertiliser production will reduce urea imports.

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