The Congolese president will face growing pressure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
General Elections

Significance President Joseph Kabila is fighting to maintain his office against a challenge from former Katanga province governor Moise Katumbi. The constitutional term limit stipulates that Kabila relinquish office at the end of the year, but the president is using administrative and legal mechanisms to postpone general elections scheduled for November. Impacts Targeted US sanctions and political instability will erode investor confidence. Low commodity prices will add pressure to Kinshasa as budget deficits rise. Donors will consider withholding aid. South Africa could play a mediating role in resolving the crisis. Neighbouring states will sympathise with Kabila given similar attempts to retain office.

scholarly journals Winery website loyalty: the role of sales promotion and service attributes

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Eric Pelet ◽  
Benoît Lecat ◽  
Jashim Khan ◽  
Sharyn Rundle-Thiele ◽  
Linda W. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Mobile Phones ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
Sales Promotion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Probability Criterion ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Purposive Sample

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between feelings toward buying wine on mobile phones and m-commerce website loyalty by examining the mediating role of sales promotion and the moderating role of service attributes of the m-commerce websites in influencing the mediation. Design/methodology/approach A total of 3,318 completed surveys were collected. Drawing on a large non-probability criterion-based purposive sample across six countries (France, Germany, Greece, South Africa, USA and Canada), mediation analysis was performed to examine the hypothesized relationships. Findings Results show that sales promotion mediates the relationship between feelings toward buying wine on mobile phones and m-commerce website loyalty. Moderated mediation reveals that the indirect pathways (sales promotion) through which feelings toward buying wine over mobile exert its effect on m-commerce website loyalty are dependent on the value of service (wine delivery) attributes of the website. The results demonstrate that sales promotion and service are of paramount importance to wineries and wine marketers. Research limitations/implications Wine producers and retailers should consider the use of sales promotion to enhance sales and loyalty to m-commerce websites. Practical implications Wine producers and retailers should consider use sales promotion (such as SMS or push notifications) to enhance sales and influence consumer feelings and hence their loyalty. Originality/value Wine m-commerce studies are limited, especially with an international perspective comparing six different countries: three from the old world (France, Germany and Greece) and three from the new world (North America with USA and Canada; and South Africa). Altogether, these six countries represent around 40 per cent of the world’s wine consumption.

Poll will pose short-term hurdle for Zambia's IMF deal

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Power Deficit

Subject Outlook for Zambia's IMF programme. Significance The World Bank in its most recent report expects Zambia's GDP growth to slow to 3.4% this year from 3.6% in 2015. The slowdown is symptomatic of an array of macroeconomic challenges -- including low commodity prices, drought, currency volatility, high inflation, fiscal and current account deficits and rising debt burdens -- that have driven the Patriotic Front (PF) government to seek assistance from the IMF. Impacts Glencore's plans to invest 1.1 billion dollars in its Mopani mine will extend the asset's life, possibly by up to 25 years. The new variable mining tax system, in which tax rates rise and fall depending on global metals prices, will improve investor confidence. The substantial power deficit will persist due to the drought, which is depressing hydroelectricity output, and dilapidated facilities. Recent investments in renewables capacity -- in particular, solar power -- will prove insufficient to mitigate electricity shortages.

Rising Guinean instability will prompt uprising fears

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
History Of ◽  
Step Down

Significance The FNDC, comprising the main opposition parties and civil society groups, claims that Conde favours a new constiitution to get around the two-term limit that would oblige him to step down this year. They have vowed to intensify demonstrations until the proposal is abandoned. The worsening unrest is prompting growing disquiet regionally and among the country’s international partners. Impacts Rising political instability, coupled with increased public-sector unrest, will hinder economic growth this year. Concerns will grow over potential military upheaval given the security forces’ history of intervening during political crises. The bulk of unrest will likely be centred on suburbs of the capital Conakry and towns with strong opposition support.

Sri Lanka will struggle to escape its debt trap

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Debt Problem ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Outstanding Debt ◽  
The Government

Subject Sri Lanka's debt problem. Significance Sri Lanka late last month said it was planning to issue international sovereign bonds (ISBs) worth some 1.5 billion dollars, helping to repay loans soon to mature. The country’s gross outstanding debt stock rose to nearly 70% of GDP in 2018 from just under 40% in 2008. Impacts Debates around the presidential election due later this year will likely be dominated by security concerns rather than the economy. Political instability caused by rifts within the government will damage investor confidence in the country. Sri Lanka will step up efforts to attract tourists, hoping to sustain a key source of foreign exchange earnings.

Commodity prices, the exchange rate and manufacturing in South Africa: what do the data say?

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 356-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Hodge
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
Unit Labour Costs

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical relationships between changes in OECD output, commodity prices, the real exchange rate, real money supply, unit labour costs and manufacturing in South Africa. In particular, to test a version of the Dutch disease argument that increases in the prices of South Africa’s main commodity exports have had a negative effect on domestic manufacturing against the alternative hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between such changes in commodity prices and domestic manufacturing output. Design/methodology/approach – Construction of a model including real manufacturing output in South Africa as the dependent variable and the following independent variables: OECD output, an international real metals price index, a real effective exchange rate index, real M3 money supply and manufacturing unit labour costs. The time series sample data comprise 124 quarterly observations for the period 1980-2010. The model equation was tested and estimated using a Johansen cointegration approach. Findings – The main findings are: OECD output is the single most important determinant of domestic manufacturing output; while the real exchange rate has the predicted negative sign, rising commodity prices are associated with increases rather than decreases in domestic manufacturing and; large increases in unit labour costs since the early 1980s have dragged down manufacturing over the sample period. Originality/value – The finding of a positive relationship between commodity prices and domestic manufacturing means that the Dutch disease argument must be revised when applied to South Africa. While rising commodity prices may lead to a negative exchange rate effect on manufacturing competitiveness, this is more than offset by the positive growth effects associated with upswings in the commodity price cycle.

Primary points to political instability in Argentina

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Significance After winning over 48.2% of the national vote in the 2019 general elections, the FdT’s vote share dropped to only 31.8%. Recriminations are rife within the government, as well as disputes over how to improve the FdT’s performance in the November midterms. Impacts Despite voter doubts about both large coalitions, leftist and rightist options are gaining limited traction. The business environment will remain unfavourable amid instability and the risk of another COVID-19 wave. Radical factions within the government will lack the resources to sustain clientelistic policies in an adverse economic situation.

South Africa finance ministry faces competing pressure

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Basic Income ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
Deficit Reduction

Significance This occurs in a context of market concerns over the recent exits of five senior National Treasury (finance ministry) officials and serious social and economic challenges manifested in high unemployment, inequality and poverty. Impacts Godongwana will resist efforts to create a basic income grant. Higher commodity prices may increase expected revenues, temporarily allowing both increased spending and deficit reduction. Weak results in the November 1 municipal elections may spur greater pressure for more spending.

Cabinet chaos raises junk status risk for South Africa

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Student Protests ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The Us ◽  
Intelligence Agencies

Significance He replaces the little known David van Rooyen, who had been in post for only four days following the axing of technocrat Nhlanhla Nene. The nature of the latter's removal shook investor confidence unprecedentedly for post-apartheid South Africa. Impacts Economic turmoil caused by Nene's axing could embolden ANC factions pushing for Zuma to resign before the next poll in 2019. However, Zuma may use his hold on the intelligence agencies to undermine opponents, eg by uncovering personal scandals. Expected monetary policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve will likely undermine any rand appreciation caused by Gordhan's appointment. Recent student protests could encourage Zuma to dismiss Higher Education Minister Blade Nzimande, weakening the SACP.

Kenya opposition election boycott increasingly likely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence

Significance A boycott would hand power to President Uhuru Kenyatta. However, it could also undermine his government's legitimacy, placing him under pressure to delay the election and reform the electoral process or -- if this is not possible -- to share a degree of power after the poll. If a compromise cannot be found, the prospects for political instability will increase significantly, especially around polling day. Impacts October's election will be just as controversial and contested as August's. Extended political uncertainty will hurt investor confidence and limit economic growth. The opposition may fragment as leaders jockey to replace Odinga, who may not run again in 2022.

Prospects for South Africa to end-2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
State Enterprises

Subject Prospects for South Africa to end-2021. Significance By mid-2021, President Cyril Ramaphosa had gained the upper hand over factional rivals within the ruling ANC. His government also benefitted from unexpected improvements in economic metrics, largely due to a spike in commodity prices. Nevertheless, key challenges remain unresolved: high unemployment, undperforming state enterprises and a perilous fiscal position.

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