Sri Lanka will struggle to escape its debt trap

Subject Sri Lanka's debt problem. Significance Sri Lanka late last month said it was planning to issue international sovereign bonds (ISBs) worth some 1.5 billion dollars, helping to repay loans soon to mature. The country’s gross outstanding debt stock rose to nearly 70% of GDP in 2018 from just under 40% in 2008. Impacts Debates around the presidential election due later this year will likely be dominated by security concerns rather than the economy. Political instability caused by rifts within the government will damage investor confidence in the country. Sri Lanka will step up efforts to attract tourists, hoping to sustain a key source of foreign exchange earnings.

Significance The government nevertheless remains under pressure from domestic critics and external stakeholders because of dwindling foreign exchange (forex) reserves and a growing debt crisis. Sri Lanka approached the IMF in early 2020 for macroeconomic support under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument, but negotiations were shelved. Impacts The government will face increasing domestic pushback over its efforts to curb capital outflows. Although India and China will remain Sri Lanka’s most important partners, ties with Bangladesh will grow markedly. Sri Lanka should be able to access an allocation of IMF special drawing rights later this month.


Significance Economic weakness plus popular resentment of an elite seen as corrupt creates potential for mass demonstrations by pro- and anti-EU factions. Russia's importance as an economic partner is waning but it retains substantial influence through sympathetic political parties. A presidential election this October will be coloured by the unresolved bank fraud scandal, which has created a gulf between the political establishment and the electorate. Impacts Mainstream politicians will be find it hard to shake off perceived links to corruption. Prominent figures, whether oligarchs or pro-Russian politicians, may therefore avoid standing as presidential candidates. Lack of systemic reforms is a constraint on Moldova's ability to engage with EU economies. Domestic turmoil makes the government less likely to challenge Transnistria, which will remain a conduit for Russian pressure.


Significance Sri Lanka’s finance ministry responded sharply, describing the move as “hasty” and “erroneous”. Colombo has recently borrowed from its regional partners Delhi and Beijing to help ease its debt burden. Impacts Colombo could be forced to rethink its apparent decision to make do without an IMF loan. Sri Lanka will try to balance its relations with India and China, recognising that it needs diplomatic and economic support from both. The government may increase financial backing for the pandemic-hit tourism and textiles sectors, key sources of foreign exchange.


Significance In late May, it approved a three-month, USD200mn currency swap with Sri Lanka to help ease Colombo’s foreign exchange woes. The move underscores its growing economic strength, even as it battles the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts The government will step up efforts to procure more COVID-19 jabs as it tries to speed up the vaccine roll-out. Bangladesh will attract more foreign direct investment, especially from Chinese- and Japanese-based multinationals. The central bank will continue to invest reserve assets in low-risk instruments overseas.


Significance Iza, a central figure in 2019 anti-austerity protests, replaces Jaime Vargas, who was expelled from CONAIE after backing 'Correista' candidate Andres Arauz in April’s presidential election run-off. Vargas’s expulsion illustrates divisions within Ecuadoran indigenous politics. CONAIE nevertheless remains a powerful force that will challenge the government. Impacts Private media channels will attempt to discredit Iza and CONAIE and undermine wider support for the indigenous movement. Correa will attempt to strengthen links within CONAIE and the Pachakutik party and build a broader leftist alliance. Popular resistance to Lasso’s economic reforms might undermine investor confidence in Ecuador.


Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 246-260
Author(s):  
Subaskar Charles ◽  
Herath Vidyaratne ◽  
Damithri Gayashini Melagoda

Purpose Green roofs are acknowledged as a method to substitute greenery washed out by the urbanization. They provide many ecological and sustainable benefits of greenery; reduce the adverse effects of high-rise building constructions. Though this concept is more popular across many countries over the past few decades, still, implementation of this technology in Sri Lanka is new and scant. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the potential of green roofs in high-rise buildings in Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach The data collection was conducted through expert interviews and questionnaire survey. Expert interviews were carried out to validate the prospects and restraints identified through literature review to the Sri Lankan context and analyzed using content analysis. Questionnaire survey identified the most significant prospects and restraints using descriptive statistics and paired sample t-test. Purposive sampling was used to select participants. Findings Reduction of air pollution, aesthetical appearance, thermal benefits and energy savings, reduction of an urban heat island effect, the addition of points in the green rating system are the top most significant prospects that need to be highlighted in promoting green roof systems in Sri Lankan high rises. Less space allocation on rooftops, lack of technical competence and lack of awareness and research are restraints that need most effective elimination strategies to encourage green roof systems. Originality/value The first identified and quantified prospects and restraints for green roof system in Sri Lankan high-rise buildings can be utilized by the government, donors, multi-lateral agencies to promote the sustainable development in Sri Lanka and this knowledge could be used in different scale awareness programs. The value of this paper is such that the paper discusses the links of green roofs with the other facets of sustainability. The new legal reforms and amendments in Sri Lanka could potentially be pending with findings of this study.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Binashi Kumarasiri ◽  
Piumi Dissanayake

PurposeIt is no surprise that garbage is not garbage for some. It is money. This is why garbage has been overestimated to a point that money allocated for waste-to-energy (WtE) projects feed individual pockets. Many countries have already adapted WtE as a successful solution for both energy and waste crisis. Although in Sri Lanka six WtE projects were promised, the government abruptly decided that it would not have any more projects other than the two plants that were under construction. The purpose of this paper is to analyse barriers to the implementation of WtE projects in Sri Lanka.Design/methodology/approachAn exploratory case study was selected as the research strategy to achieve the research aim. In total, two WtE megaprojects, which have been initiated implementation in Sri Lanka, were used as cases. A total of 12 semi-structured interviews with four personnel from each case and four government officials were used as the data collection technique. Data analysis was carried out using code-based content analysis. The barriers were extracted through analysis of case findings using an abductive analysis. The strategies to mitigate identified barriers were formulated based on attributes highlighted through case study findings and further validated through the opinions of three experts.FindingsBarriers were analysed using the PESTEL framework to get ample insight into barriers that impact on the implementation of WtE projects in Sri Lanka. Less support from the government due to their less awareness on WtE, high investment and operational cost, lack of expert knowledge on WtE technologies in Sri Lanka, absence of a proper regulatory framework for implementation WtE technologies, lengthy process and delay in getting approvals from government process, poor attitudes of public and their protests due to the less awareness on WtE are the foremost barriers identified in this study. Further, strategies were proposed based on the empirical research findings to overcome barriers to facilitate the successful implementation of WtE projects in Sri Lanka.Research limitations/implicationsSo far only two WtE megaprojects have been initiated the implementation in Sri Lanka. Therefore, the scope of the study was limited only to those projects. Moreover, the type of waste considered in this study is municipal solid waste (MSW), which has become a bigger problem in Sri Lanka.Originality/valueThe current study unveils an analysis of barriers for implementation of WtE projects in Sri Lanka, including strategies for mitigating identified barriers. The findings would enable relevant stakeholders, i.e. policymakers, industry practitioners, investors, government bodies and researchers to make informed decisions on implementation of WtE projects and thereby promote successful implementation of WtE projects in Sri Lanka.


2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henk Berkman ◽  
Vidura Galpoththage

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to use a portfolio-time-series approach to examine the impact of five important political events on the value of politically connected firms in Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach – This study examines five major political events to test if political connections affect market value of listed companies in Sri Lanka. Results show that despite numerous news articles and public perception suggesting otherwise, there is no convincing evidence which indicate that political connections increase firm value in Sri Lanka. Findings – The empirical results provide no evidence that political connections increase firm value in Sri Lanka. Further tests indicate that the government is not biased towards politically connected firms when granting major projects. The authors also fail to find a relation between Tobin’s Q and the level of political connection after including several common control variables. Originality/value – This study contributes to the literature on the value of political connections by using a robust event study methodology and a novel setting: Sri Lanka in the period around the end of the civil war.


Subject The Central Bank's 2015 monetary programme. Significance The Central Bank's (BCRA) 2015 monetary programme indicates that the main features of the current monetary policy framework -- characterised by an expansionary bias, foreign exchange controls and close monitoring of the informal exchange market -- will continue this year. Impacts The government will prioritise exchange rate stability, at the expense of economic activity. The BCRA will continue using the official exchange rate as a nominal anchor. Foreign exchange controls may be extended to discourage devaluation expectations and to protect international reserves.


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