'Brexit' will put pressure on UK-Irish links

Significance The agenda was clear: planning for Brexit and the negotiations that will surround it. The extensive economic links between Ireland and the United Kingdom in terms of trade and the movement of people as well as the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland mean that Brexit will have significant economic, social and political implications for Ireland. Impacts Brexit could undermine police cooperation along the Irish border. EU funding for peace and reconciliation, provided through the UK government, may be problematic after Brexit. UK controls on EU immigration could increase flows to Ireland.

Significance However, there has been a notable change in the EU’s tone. In July, the European Commission unexpectedly paused legal action against the United Kingdom for an alleged breach of the NIP, and when London announced on September 6 that it was suspending key elements indefinitely, the EU’s response was muted. Impacts France is so deeply aggrieved over AUKUS that any further UK breaches of the Withdrawal Agreement could prompt a bad-tempered response. The possibility of an early assembly election in Northern Ireland would complicate EU-UK attempts to resolve the NIP issue. The exclusion of high profile, pro-EU politicians in the UK cabinet reshuffle shows how important the Brexit agenda remains for London.


2020 ◽  
pp. 002201832097752
Author(s):  
Gemma Davies

Much of the cooperation on criminal justice matters between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland is based on EU level instruments. While there has been consideration of the broader impact of Brexit on the Good Friday Agreement and consensus on the need to avoid a return to a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, more detailed consideration has not been given to the effect that Brexit may have on continued criminal justice cooperation across the border. This article highlights the combined risks that Brexit presents for Northern Ireland in the form of increased criminality at a time when the loss of EU police cooperation mechanisms may result in a reduction of operational capacity and the removal of the legal architecture underpinning informal cooperation. Part 1 seeks to highlight the historical context of UK-Irish cooperation in policing matters. Part 2 explores the risk that post Brexit the Irish border may become a focus for criminal activity. The risks relating to increased immigration crime, smuggling of commodities and potential rise in terrorist activities are explored. Part 3 considers how the risks of increased criminal threats are exacerbated by the loss of EU criminal justice cooperation mechanisms and how this will affect UK-Irish cooperation specifically. Consideration is particularly given to the loss of information sharing systems. Part 4 considers how loss of EU level cooperation mechanisms could be mitigated. The viability of bilateral agreements between the UK and Ireland is considered alongside ways which police cooperation can be formalised to compensate for the potential loss of EU criminal justice information sharing systems. Nordic police cooperation is considered as a potential blueprint for the UK and Ireland.


Significance The Brexit process also has coincided with the rise of national over British identities in Scotland and Wales, as well as an increase in younger generations supporting independence. In Northern Ireland, Catholics are likely to outnumber Protestants for the first time when the census is released next year. Impacts The UK government’s hard-line opposition to another Scottish referendum vote could risk increasing support for independence. Resolving tensions over the Northern Ireland protocol will be crucial in making progress on other aspects of UK-EU relations. Concern over the economic impact of Brexit suggests that London will continue to take a lax approach to customs checks on EU imports.


Subject Future UK-US relations. Significance During his state visit to the United Kingdom, US President Trump took a conciliatory line towards his hosts. There was little substantive progress on bilateral issues, but neither was there open disagreement. Trump appeared to walk back a threat to cut off intelligence-sharing with the United Kingdom over London’s stance towards China, and he also attempted to minimise the damage he caused by suggesting the National Health Service (NHS) should be part of a future US-UK trade deal. Impacts Trump remains unpopular among large sections of the UK public, which makes it risky for Conservative politicians to appear close to him. Trump suggested that Nigel Farage should become the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, indicating he still holds hard-line views on Brexit. A hard border in Northern Ireland after Brexit would complicate the already-difficult politics of a US-UK trade deal in the US Congress.


Significance Johnson's cabinet overhaul is the largest in decades, replacing 17 cabinet ministers from the previous government mostly with individuals who support Johnson’s hard-line stance on Brexit. Impacts Brussels could offer London a ‘Northern Ireland only’ backstop, but this will be rejected by the UK government. The government will likely pass legislation to protect EU citizens’ rights in the United Kingdom if there is a no-deal Brexit. The EU will only grant another extension if a deal is almost agreed, or if there is a UK general election or second Brexit referendum.


Significance The differing perspectives of unionists and nationalists on the creation of Northern Ireland as a political entity within the United Kingdom, together with Brexit and tensions over the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), have brought the contentious issue of Irish reunification onto the political agenda in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Impacts Scottish independence would likely increase momentum for a referendum on Irish unity. Successful implementation of the NIP, giving firms access to EU and UK markets, may support arguments for maintaining the status quo. If the UK government abandons the NIP, the adverse trade impact on Northern Irish firms could increase support for unification.


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