India's Afghan role will be less than Pakistan fears

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Indian Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Strategic Partner ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Subject Indian policy on Afghanistan. Significance India features prominently in the US strategy on Afghanistan articulated by President Donald Trump in August 2017. The United States views India as a 'strategic partner' and wants it to support the Afghan state. US support for Kabul fits with India's desire for a more even balance of power between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Impacts Pakistan will blame India and Afghanistan for its domestic insurgency problems. Islamabad will try to make a reduced Indian presence a condition for better relations with Kabul. Russia and China will watch India's actions warily as they position themselves closer to Pakistan.

Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

US Space Force will start small and then evolve

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Marine Corps ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Subject Creation of the US Space Force. Significance President Donald Trump on February 19 signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to draw up legislation establishing a Space Force as the sixth branch of the US military, alongside the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Impacts A separation of air and space budgets could positively affect future military space modernisation and development programmes. Creation of the Space Force could ultimately move the United States closer towards openly putting weapons in space. If China and Russia perceive it this way, it creates the risk of an arms race in space.

US-Vietnam security ties may trump trade

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Transfers ◽  
Look Ahead ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vietnamese Diaspora

Subject US-Vietnam relations. Significance Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc met US President Donald Trump on May 31 in Washington, during a two-day visit in which he also conferred with the US business community and Vietnamese diaspora. Phuc’s visit is part of Hanoi’s plan to forge a relationship with the new US administration. The prime minister sought the continuance of the Obama-era US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership and to look ahead to the APEC meeting in Da Nang in November, which Trump will attend. Impacts Even without the twelve-member TPP, Vietnam will improve its intellectual property and labour laws. Increased US security support may see more frictions over maritime issues between Beijing and a more confident Hanoi. Trump’s wish to protect US borders will cause Hanoi concern that Vietnamese student numbers in the United States will fall. If so, this could hit knowledge and technology transfers from the United States to Vietnam.

Afghan Taliban use violence to hasten US troop exit

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Armed Force ◽  
Bad Faith ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Creation

Significance At the same time as pursuing peace talks with the Afghan government, the Taliban are using calibrated armed force to push the United States into withdrawing all its troops. In an incontrovertible breach of their agreement with Washington, the insurgents launched their largest military offensive in years in October. As though this were not happening, President Donald Trump ordered the US force in Afghanistan to be reduced to 2,500 by the end of his term. Impacts NATO and other coalition allies in Afghanistan will mirror the US exit with proportionate troop drawdowns. Opposition to talks is hardening in Kabul as sceptics claim the Taliban are acting in bad faith. Reverses suffered by the Afghan security forces will focus debate on whether they can cope once US forces leave. The Afghan president is accelerating the creation of the 'Territorial Army', recruited from the militias of former warlords.

China agreement will not help US manufacturers

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Upper Midwest ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Wars

Subject The impact of the US-China trade wars on US manufacturers. Significance The United States and China reached a tentative agreement in trade negotiations on October 11 that President Donald Trump described as "a substantial phase one deal". The deal, which is yet to be finalised, centres on China's agreement to purchase some 40-50 billion dollars' worth of additional US agricultural goods annually, and Trump's agreement to suspend a planned increase in tariffs on 250 billion dollars' worth of Chinese goods, from 25% to 30%, that was due to take effect tomorrow. However, existing tariffs on both sides remain in place. Impacts A manufacturing recession could lead to greater upper Midwest voters’ discontent. Midwestern voter discontent could help a Democrat win the presidency in 2020, and a populist win the party’s nomination. US-based manufacturers could benefit from new contracts as supply lines are revised, but costs would rise. A second Trump tax cut in 2020 could temporarily help US-based firms avoid competitiveness gaps.

Stagnating US women’s rights may set global pace

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Women's Rights ◽  
The United States ◽  
Women’S Rights ◽  
Reproductive Health Services ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Access To Contraception

Significance The action urges women to strike or avoid making purchases to highlight women’s importance in society. It follows marches in the United States and across the world on January 21 against the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States. Impacts The US cut in reproductive health services funding will restrict access to contraception for millions of women globally. This could lead to increases in unsafe abortion, and higher maternal death rates. In Europe, the rise of far-right governments may also result in reversals in legislation protecting women’s rights.

US government’s investment intervention will grow

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Foreign Investments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Government intervention in foreign inward and outward investments and mergers. Significance The Trump administration is increasingly moving to control undesired foreign investments, as the March 12 presidential order blocking overseas-based Broadcom from merging with US-based Qualcomm showed. President Donald Trump was working on advice from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Since 1990, there have been only five cases where presidents have blocked mergers; two of these have been under Trump since his inauguration in January 2017. Impacts Foreign firms will face constraints on accessing US intellectual property and tech patents. Trump will impose new visa requirements for Chinese nationals working and studying in the United States. US vetoes of foreign investment and mergers could see other countries respond in the same way. The Broadcom-Qualcomm veto should help the US semiconductors industry maintain a global role in 5G technology. Foreign firms may sidestep the CFIUS by incorporating in the United States, as Broadcom hopes to do next month.

Vietnam will try to ease reliance on US trade

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Subject Vietnam's trading ties with the United States and other countries. Significance Vietnam-US ties are burgeoning, and the United States is Vietnam’s largest export market. Yet US President Donald Trump in June said Vietnam was “almost the single worst abuser of everybody” with regards to trade practices, one month after the US Treasury put Vietnam on a watchlist for currency manipulation. Impacts Vietnam will gather evidence to show the United States that it is not manipulating its currency. Hanoi will crack down on Chinese goods being shipped through Vietnam as a means of evading US tariffs. Vietnam will increasingly focus on trade accords that do not include the United States.

Partial UK-US trade deal to join China and USMCA deals

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Significant Activity ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
United States Mexico

Subject US trade policy after the China and USMCA deals. Significance US President Donald Trump approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on January 29 after Mexico approved it in December. Canada will almost certainly approve it, having begun the ratification process on January 27. The USMCA signing, coming soon after Chinese and US officials signed phase one of their trade agreement on January 16, is the most significant activity on international trade thus far by the US administration. Impacts US trade policy will continue to focus on bilateral deals. Trump benefits politically from attacking US trade imbalances, which his supporters view as having only hurt US industry and commodities. Trump may see the USMCA and China deals as fleeting successes; he might redouble his efforts and pursue stricter deals if re-elected.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document