Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

India's Afghan role will be less than Pakistan fears

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Indian Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Strategic Partner ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Subject Indian policy on Afghanistan. Significance India features prominently in the US strategy on Afghanistan articulated by President Donald Trump in August 2017. The United States views India as a 'strategic partner' and wants it to support the Afghan state. US support for Kabul fits with India's desire for a more even balance of power between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Impacts Pakistan will blame India and Afghanistan for its domestic insurgency problems. Islamabad will try to make a reduced Indian presence a condition for better relations with Kabul. Russia and China will watch India's actions warily as they position themselves closer to Pakistan.

ECHELON and the NSA

2011 ◽  
pp. 453-468
Author(s):  
D. C. Webb
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electronic Systems ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
The Us ◽  
E Mail

Communication via electronic systems such as telephones, faxes, e-mail, computers, etc., has enormously increased the volume and ease with which people and institutions can exchange messages and information. However, the associated technologies have also enabled the introduction of new sophisticated concepts and methods in interception and analysis for intelligence gatherers. One such method has been dubbed ECHELON and is used by which the United States and its partners in a worldwide intelligence alliance to intercept and analyse messages transmitted electronically from anywhere on Earth. The National Security Agency (NSA), based at Fort Mead in Maryland, is the US organisation most intimately involved in the operation of this covert surveillance system. This is the story of the methods developed and the institutions that adopt them and the debates and arguments that have accompanied their use from domestic surveillance to international commercial and political espionage.

Next US president will confront nuclear disorder

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Response

Significance As Barack Obama eyes the January 2017 presidential transition, Washington's decades-long goal of a stable global nuclear order appears to be under threat from multiple quarters. Obama was mulling a US nuclear posture shift in August, whereby he would declare that the United States would only launch its nuclear deterrent in response to a nuclear strike by an adversary, ruling out a nuclear response to a conventional attack on US or allied forces. Impacts Deviation by Washington from support of disarmament and existing legal instruments could strain ties with some US allies. Trump's unorthodox positions on nuclear policy will promote defections by national security Republicans to Clinton's camp. A candidate's campaign trail rhetoric is likely to influence the credibility of the US nuclear deterrent once in office.

WikiLeaks disclosures will intensify US anti-leak push

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Privacy Concerns ◽  
Technology Firms ◽  
Internet Regulation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Microsoft said WikiLeaks had been in contact with them about vulnerabilities disclosed when WikiLeaks published files on March 7, the first in a series called ‘Vault 7’. This leak has been rebuked by US national security officials, but further revelations could be forthcoming. Impacts Customers may be reluctant to buy products that have previously been associated with CIA spy tools and listening devices. The revelations will damage an already strained relationship between the US government and technology firms. Privacy concerns will hinder internet regulation liberalisation between the United States and other countries, particularly in the EU.

Extended tariffs may push a US-China deal beyond 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Dynamics ◽  
Better Than ◽  
The Eu

Subject US-China trade policy ahead. Significance Starting on August 1, the United States and China have this month imposed more import tariffs on each other’s products following the collapse of the Shanghai round of US-China trade talks. The quick reaction by both indicates that neither sees much prospect of reaching a deal. To protect domestic activity and maintain momentum for further talks, both could apply a lower tariff to products they cannot buy from elsewhere. For example, rare earths, which the United States depends on China for, remain exempt from tariffs. Impacts Worries about the overreliance on consumer spending and uncertainty over investment ahead suggest that the US downturn could accelerate. Despite suffering slower growth and employment worries, China will not simply agree a deal on the US administration’s terms. Chinese negotiators understand the US-China trade dynamics better than the US administration and will use this to their advantage. The US administration can impose 25% tariffs on its global imports of cars and parts, citing national security; this would hit the EU hard.

Rethinking U.S. National Security after Covid19

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda J. Bilmes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military

AbstractThe United States has traditionally defined national security in the context of military threats and addressed them through military spending. This article considers whether the United States will rethink this mindset following the disruption of the Covid19 pandemic, during which a non-military actor has inflicted widespread harm. The author argues that the US will not redefine national security explicitly due to the importance of the military in the US economy and the bipartisan trend toward growing the military budget since 2001. However, the pandemic has opened the floodgates with respect to federal spending. This shift will enable the next administration to allocate greater resources to non-military threats such as climate change and emerging diseases, even as it continues to increase defense spending to address traditionally defined military threats such as hypersonics and cyberterrorism.

Washington will rethink its foreign chip strategy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Export Controls ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Technology Competition ◽  
Business In China

Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.

Online disinformation is greater risk for older users

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Senior Citizens ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
News Source ◽  
The Us ◽  
Older Users ◽  
Special Concern

Significance The growing numbers of senior citizens in the United States, their rapidly increasing adoption of social media and their high levels of voter turnout make their vulnerability to disinformation a matter of special concern. Other advanced democracies likely mirror the US experience. Impacts Older US adults' use of television as their primary news source may provide some bulwark against being targeted by disinformation online. The rapid evolution of news distribution technologies will challenge older adults used to a more slowly changing media landscape. Further research is necessary to determine the causes of age-based vulnerability and levels of resilience.

scholarly journals Conflict in the Middle East: The US and the Turkish-Kurdish Conflict

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 11-21
Author(s):  
Matthew Dotzler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
Boiling Point ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Northern Iraq ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
Kurdish Conflict

The conflict between Turkey and the Kurds is once again reaching a boiling point. Following the defeat of ISIL in northern Iraq and Syria, Turkey is now concerned that the returning Kurdish militias pose a threat to its national security. The United States, as an ally to both parties, finds itself in a unique position to push for diplomatic solutions and to mediate the conflict before it grows out of control once again. This paper will examine the history of the Turkish-Kurdish conflict, the actors involved, and how US foreign policy can be used to try and deter yet another war in the region.

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