Partial UK-US trade deal to join China and USMCA deals

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Significant Activity ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
United States Mexico

Subject US trade policy after the China and USMCA deals. Significance US President Donald Trump approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on January 29 after Mexico approved it in December. Canada will almost certainly approve it, having begun the ratification process on January 27. The USMCA signing, coming soon after Chinese and US officials signed phase one of their trade agreement on January 16, is the most significant activity on international trade thus far by the US administration. Impacts US trade policy will continue to focus on bilateral deals. Trump benefits politically from attacking US trade imbalances, which his supporters view as having only hurt US industry and commodities. Trump may see the USMCA and China deals as fleeting successes; he might redouble his efforts and pursue stricter deals if re-elected.

US trade policy will target self-sufficiency

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Comment ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
The Government

Subject US trade policy. Significance US President Donald Trump announced on March 22 that within 15 days a list of more than 1,000 Chinese imports to be subject to 25% tariffs will be released for 30 days of public comment. This could herald wider protectionist policies: the rhetoric of Trump's team may suggest its goal is to establish 'fair' trade, letting markets determine pricing and observing copyrights and patents, but the move also represents a key step in the fundamental 15-year US policy shift towards autarky. Impacts Forecasters were slow to see that US shale advances 15 years ago would alter energy markets -- now manufacturing too could change markedly. The United States may extend its shale experience to other sectors to reduce its imports substantially. If the United States becomes less dependent on certain regions for key imports, the government will gain foreign policy flexibility.

USMCA brings Mexico broad continuity, with some risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Sector ◽  
The One ◽  
United States Mexico

Subject The new USMCA. Significance Mexico, Canada and the United States agreed on September 30 to a new trilateral free trade agreement, to replace NAFTA. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) presents a mixed scenario for Mexico’s economy. On the one hand, Mexican officials and businesses are relieved that the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations has been resolved. On the other, the agreement imposes new rules in the auto sector, which could have negative consequences for Mexico’s most important manufacturing industry. Impacts New auto industry rules could raise prices and disrupt supply chains in Mexico’s key export sector. Despite the USMCA’s provisions for higher wages, it will in practice do little to raise them in Mexico. Mexico remains vulnerable to the Trump administration’s protectionist whims.

Japan's political outlook stable but economy will slow

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Territorial Dispute ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Economic Slowdown

Subject The outlook for politics in Japan for the rest of 2019. Significance Japan’s political calendar is busy in the months ahead. On May 1, a new emperor will take the throne. The G20 meeting will be held in Osaka in June. The US and Chinese presidents will both visit separately, too. Upper house elections are due in July, following local elections in April. In October, a long-postponed rise in sales tax will take effect. Impacts Some economic slowdown in the fourth quarter seems inevitable, following the hike in the sales tax. The prospect of a settlement of Japan’s territorial dispute with Russia is distant, despite optimistic talk. Trade talks with the United States are likely to be protracted and not settled until after Washington reaches a trade agreement with Beijing

US Space Force will start small and then evolve

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Marine Corps ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Subject Creation of the US Space Force. Significance President Donald Trump on February 19 signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to draw up legislation establishing a Space Force as the sixth branch of the US military, alongside the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Impacts A separation of air and space budgets could positively affect future military space modernisation and development programmes. Creation of the Space Force could ultimately move the United States closer towards openly putting weapons in space. If China and Russia perceive it this way, it creates the risk of an arms race in space.

India's Afghan role will be less than Pakistan fears

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Indian Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Strategic Partner ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Subject Indian policy on Afghanistan. Significance India features prominently in the US strategy on Afghanistan articulated by President Donald Trump in August 2017. The United States views India as a 'strategic partner' and wants it to support the Afghan state. US support for Kabul fits with India's desire for a more even balance of power between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Impacts Pakistan will blame India and Afghanistan for its domestic insurgency problems. Islamabad will try to make a reduced Indian presence a condition for better relations with Kabul. Russia and China will watch India's actions warily as they position themselves closer to Pakistan.

US-Vietnam security ties may trump trade

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Transfers ◽  
Look Ahead ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vietnamese Diaspora

Subject US-Vietnam relations. Significance Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc met US President Donald Trump on May 31 in Washington, during a two-day visit in which he also conferred with the US business community and Vietnamese diaspora. Phuc’s visit is part of Hanoi’s plan to forge a relationship with the new US administration. The prime minister sought the continuance of the Obama-era US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership and to look ahead to the APEC meeting in Da Nang in November, which Trump will attend. Impacts Even without the twelve-member TPP, Vietnam will improve its intellectual property and labour laws. Increased US security support may see more frictions over maritime issues between Beijing and a more confident Hanoi. Trump’s wish to protect US borders will cause Hanoi concern that Vietnamese student numbers in the United States will fall. If so, this could hit knowledge and technology transfers from the United States to Vietnam.

Afghan Taliban use violence to hasten US troop exit

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Armed Force ◽  
Bad Faith ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Creation

Significance At the same time as pursuing peace talks with the Afghan government, the Taliban are using calibrated armed force to push the United States into withdrawing all its troops. In an incontrovertible breach of their agreement with Washington, the insurgents launched their largest military offensive in years in October. As though this were not happening, President Donald Trump ordered the US force in Afghanistan to be reduced to 2,500 by the end of his term. Impacts NATO and other coalition allies in Afghanistan will mirror the US exit with proportionate troop drawdowns. Opposition to talks is hardening in Kabul as sceptics claim the Taliban are acting in bad faith. Reverses suffered by the Afghan security forces will focus debate on whether they can cope once US forces leave. The Afghan president is accelerating the creation of the 'Territorial Army', recruited from the militias of former warlords.

It is time to change US trade policy to foster access to medicines

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-27
Author(s):  
Maria Fabiana Jorge
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Access To Medicines ◽  
The United States ◽  
Drug Prices ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
United States Mexico ◽  
United States Trade

While Americans are deeply concerned about drug prices, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) continues to negotiate agreements like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that put at risk the sustainability of the generics industry and undermine the development of biosimilars that play a critical role in access to medicines. It is time to restore some balance to US trade policy.

China agreement will not help US manufacturers

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Upper Midwest ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Wars

Subject The impact of the US-China trade wars on US manufacturers. Significance The United States and China reached a tentative agreement in trade negotiations on October 11 that President Donald Trump described as "a substantial phase one deal". The deal, which is yet to be finalised, centres on China's agreement to purchase some 40-50 billion dollars' worth of additional US agricultural goods annually, and Trump's agreement to suspend a planned increase in tariffs on 250 billion dollars' worth of Chinese goods, from 25% to 30%, that was due to take effect tomorrow. However, existing tariffs on both sides remain in place. Impacts A manufacturing recession could lead to greater upper Midwest voters’ discontent. Midwestern voter discontent could help a Democrat win the presidency in 2020, and a populist win the party’s nomination. US-based manufacturers could benefit from new contracts as supply lines are revised, but costs would rise. A second Trump tax cut in 2020 could temporarily help US-based firms avoid competitiveness gaps.

scholarly journals A Really Big Button That Doesn’t Do Anything? The Anti-NME Clause in US Trade Agreements Between Law and Geoeconomics

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-64
Author(s):  
Geraldo Vidigal
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Original Design ◽  
Bilateral Agreements ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
United States Mexico ◽  
Legal Consequences

Abstract The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) features a clause, dubbed ‘anti-China’, which sets out legal consequences in case one of the parties negotiates or enters into a free trade agreement (FTA) with a nonmarket economy (NME). A similarly worded objective appears among the negotiating objectives of the US for FTAs with the European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom. This article examines the anti-NME clause, arguing that its concrete legal consequences are less relevant than its symbolic effects. The USMCA clause itself is difficult to replicate in bilateral agreements, since it depends on cooperation between the two nonsigning parties. Its operation is nonetheless similar to that of two unilateral remedies available under the law of treaties, permitting a reasonable assessment that the clause, if it follows its original design, will aim to permit termination of bilateral US FTAs in response to the other party entering into an NME FTA. While such a clause would offer little in terms of concrete effects if added to agreements that already permit unilateral withdrawal, its greatest value may not be in its legal effects but in its legitimating and signaling properties, which push USMCA parties to establish a common front in the ‘geoeconomic’ dispute between the United States and China.

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