Modi’s party will likely renew emphasis on caste

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Identity Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject India's ruling party's likely election strategy emphasising caste. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was last week displaced from government in three of its heartland states by the main opposition Congress party, following elections. The poll results suggest a loss of support for the BJP among rural voters and Dalits (formerly regarded as ‘untouchables’). Ahead of the general election likely in April or May, party President Amit Shah is overseeing the BJP’s strategy. Impacts The BJP will highlight India’s robust quarterly GDP growth figures, claiming good economic management besides engaging in identity politics. Opposition parties could highlight the plight of Dalits working as manual scavengers as part of their election campaigns. Shah will likely be a future prime ministerial candidate for the BJP.

Modi’s party will be relaxed about upcoming polls

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
National Profile ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Congress party will likely lead 2019 anti-Modi front

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Party President Rahul Gandhi’s Congress displaced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from power in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all in the nationally ruling party’s ‘Hindu-Hindi’ heartland and with large rural constituencies. In recent months, opposition parties including Congress have been in talks about possibly forming a broad anti-BJP front to challenge Modi in the general election, likely in April or May next year. Impacts More farmer-led protests are likely ahead of the general election. Outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim violence are likely, especially in the north and west. Modi’s government will press the Reserve Bank of India to release more reserves and cut rates, hoping to boost growth.

Modi may yet face a real opposition if it can unite

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.

Freedom of expression may be stymied in India

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Speech ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Cow Protection ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Attacks on India's media. Significance The gunning down of the journalist Gauri Lankesh on September 5 has revived concerns about free speech in India. More generally, critics of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are facing a backlash. Impacts In forthcoming election campaigns, opposition parties will claim rising intolerance of dissent under BJP rule. India’s states will come under pressure to curb the vigilantism of cow protection groups. Protests over legislation criminalising same-sex marriages are likely to increase.

India’s election will see patchwork opposition to Modi

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Close Result ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Ahead of the poll, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been consolidating its National Democratic Alliance (NDA). While the main opposition Congress party heads a United Progressive Alliance (UPA), a much-anticipated ‘Federal Front’ involving other opposition parties, and possibly the UPA, is yet to materialise. Impacts The BJP will play on India's recent military action targeting Pakistan-based militants, believing this improves its poll chances. Congress will attack Modi over jobless growth and farmer hardship, hoping to capitalise on signs of anger towards the prime minister. The election will see contention over electronic voting machines, with disputation likely to intensify in the event of a close result.

India may increase federal financing for some states

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
New States ◽  
Special Category

Subject India's redistribution of federal resources. Significance At the general election likely in April or May, the nationally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition Congress party will be seeking the support of state-based parties to bolster their alliances. Unequal patterns of regional development are prompting some states to seek a greater share of federal resources, but ‘special category status’ for disadvantaged states has effectively been abolished. Impacts Personal campaigning by Prime Minister Narendra Modi could improve the BJP’s chances of winning votes in states where it is unpopular. Congress will claim that Modi’s government has failed to deliver on economic development, hoping to increase its support. No post-election government will likely consider creating new states.

Indian opposition parties will disrupt parliament more

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Justice ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Parliamentary disruptions and increasing riots in India. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month led a public fast in protest at disruptions inside parliament, which cost the budget session nearly 250 hours in lost deliberations. While the Indian legislature’s role in holding the executive to account is curtailed, popular riots provide a means to challenge government policies. India’s general election is due in 2019, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power. Impacts Opposition parties’ attempts to have the Supreme Court chief justice impeached are unlikely to succeed. Spikes in civil violence are likely ahead of forthcoming state elections. The BJP and its allies may achieve a majority in the upper house after 2019, if Modi's party retains power.

Modi risks backlash by pursuing authoritarian tack

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Close Association ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Prime Minister Narendra Modi's authoritarian governance. Significance The circumstances in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) recently abrogated Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status have prompted some critics to highlight the government’s authoritarian tendencies. While most opposition parties are in disarray, Modi’s party is increasing the central government’s power over regional states. Impacts Home Minister and BJP President Amit Shah will consolidate his position as the likely long-term successor to the prime ministership. The main opposition Congress party will refuse to attenuate its close association with the Gandhi family. Many opposition parties will struggle to prevent members resigning and joining the BJP.

Indian opposition parties will find it tough to unite

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The dialogue centred on how to work more cooperatively to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government ahead of the next general election, due in 2024. The National Democratic Alliance, led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had landslide wins in the 2014 and 2019 polls. Impacts The BJP will try to destabilise rival parties by encouraging their lawmakers to quit them. West Bengal state’s ruling All India Trinamool Congress, a major BJP opponent, will become more influential in the north-east. Muslims may feel increasingly vulnerable to verbal and physical attacks.

Modi will lose much rural support

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
Farm Debt

Significance As the 2019 general election approaches, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to secure the backing of India’s rural population, which is some two-thirds of the country’s total. Modi has encouraged state governments to waive farm debt worth up to 2.8 trillion rupees (39 billion dollars); suggested a procurement formula guaranteeing farmers a return of at least 1.5 times their costs of production; and promised to double farm incomes by 2022. Meanwhile, landowning castes are increasingly demanding opportunities in education and employment away from rural areas. Impacts State governments will try to pay off farm debts by issuing bonds. In election campaigning, opposition parties will claim to champion rural interests. An average 2018 monsoon should boost agricultural output.

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