Russian pipeline delayed, not stopped, by US sanctions

Subject Implications of US sanctions against Nord Stream 2. Significance US Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said in a February 15 interview at the Munich Security Conference that he was confident Russia would not be able to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. He reiterated US opposition to the project, which would have likely been operational by now if Swiss pipelaying firm Allseas had not pulled out in December because of US legislation threatening sanctions for involvement in pipeline construction. Impacts The recent transit deal with Ukraine gives Gazprom capacity in the event of a Nord Stream 2 delay. Russia plans to reduce use of the Ukrainian route; whether (and when) it will abandon it altogether is unclear. Europe will remain dependent on Russian gas, whichever route it travels by; Azerbaijan and others can add only marginal capacity.

Significance Gazprom held its first auctions, for Nord Stream gas, on September 7-10. Auctions represent a departure in Gazprom's sales strategy, and suggest that it is exploring alternatives to oil indexation and long-term contracts. Auction sales would allow Gazprom to sell more gas from the currently under-utilised Nord Stream pipeline, and could form the basis for gas sales from its proposed expansion. Both Nord Stream auctions sales and expansion would advance Gazprom's objective of bypassing Ukraine for gas transit to Europe. Impacts Auction sales would meet CEE states' preference for sourcing Russian gas through Western intermediaries. However, any loss of gas transit via Ukraine will raise concerns in some CEE states and Ukraine on transit fee and strategic grounds. By helping to meet EU TPA requirements, Nord Stream auction sales could reduce regulatory concerns about the line's expansion. EU and US sanctions against Russia do not prohibit Western company involvement in pipeline construction for gas transmission.


Significance Despite this, Biden indicated no change in the US position after a bilateral agreement with Germany effectively paved the way to completing the pipeline. Technically, Nord Stream 2 could begin partially operating in October. Impacts The recent spike in European gas prices to levels unseen since 2008 reinforces the case for Nord Stream 2's speedy completion. EU energy diversification, with a focus on renewables, poses long-term questions about the viability of both the Nord Stream pipelines. From October, Hungary will switch to Gazprom gas supplied via Serbia and Austria instead of through Ukrainian pipelines.


Significance The two sides have suspended tariffs arising from their dispute over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing, are working on an international deal on corporate taxation and have established a high-level council to discuss issues at the nexus of security, technology and trade. Impacts A major aim of closer transatlantic cooperation is better coordination of policies with respect to China. Closer transatlantic cooperation over China might soften US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It will be difficult for the US government to pass legislation concerning trade given the Democrats' precarious majority in both houses.


Subject Impact of old and new sanctions on Russia's oil industry Significance New US sanctions make it harder for President Donald Trump to relax or reverse sanctions on Russia's energy sector but do not radically change existing restrictions. The Russian oil industry has responded since 2014 by seeking alternative sources of capital. Gas firms have been targeted less by restrictions, although the new US bill singles out Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 project for potential punitive action. Impacts Sanctions will not affect Russia's current position as the world's top oil producer. Long-term production will be depressed if ageing fields cannot be replaced with new fields requiring high-tech development. Kazakhstan is keen to stress that the oil pipeline from its Tengiz field to the Russian Black Sea is exempt from sanctions.


Significance Interest in hydrogen stems mainly from a recognition that global markets and regulation will change, rather than domestic pressure for climate change mitigation. Natural gas producer Gazprom, liquified natural gas (LNG) specialist Novatek and government-controlled nuclear and hydroelectric companies Rosatom and Rusgidro are expected to play leading roles, but ambitions are modest. Impacts Hydrogen development will be led by firms with interests in natural gas or electricity, both key inputs. The German-Russian Chamber of Commerce will push hydrogen development as a way of marrying bilateral expertise and capacity. There is talk of using the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to carry a hydrogen-methane mix, or even of a dedicated third pipeline.


Significance Trump's acceptance at the post-meeting press conference of Putin's assertion that Moscow did not interfere in the 2016 US presidential election caused shock in the United States as it contradicts the findings of US intelligence services. Impacts Any future US-Russia dialogue will move slowly: neither side can gain domestic political benefit from being seen to concede too much. German officials may be relieved Trump yesterday downplayed Nord Stream 2 as economic cooperation, not Russia dominating Germany. Iran will note Putin did not publicly agree to press for formal removal of its proxy militias in Syria. If Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, they will likely be more assertive over US-Russia policy.


Significance Russia's demand that Washington scale down its diplomatic mission staffing is dramatic in tone yet limited in effect. Despite the large number of posts to be cut, this retaliation is a formality and underlines the paucity of options available to Moscow. Impacts Domestic media will present Moscow's retaliation as evidence of President Vladimir Putin's resolute defence of Russian interests. With little hope of a swift end to Western sanctions, Moscow will try to mitigate the effects through evasion or engagement with China. Moscow will lobby EU states to commit to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline despite the new sanctions' implied restrictions on such energy projects.


Subject EU responses to Russian actions around Ukraine. Significance EU sanctions imposed in 2014 remain in place owing to continuing concerns about Russian interference in elections, the poison attack on former spy Sergey Skripal and covert Russian activities in Ukraine and elsewhere. However, the EU has resisted pressure to take immediate action after the Kerch Straits incident, in which Russian coast guards captured three Ukrainian naval vessels. Impacts The US position on sanctions currently mirrors EU restraint, but Washington would be forced to act by blatant Russian aggression. Ukraine will call for EU support while using legal action in an attempt to hamper Gazprom's alternative gas export routes. European Parliament resolutions condemning Nord Stream 2 will have little impact on German support for the project.


Keyword(s):  

Headline RUSSIA: Firms act to reduce Nord Stream sanction risks


Keyword(s):  

Headline RUSSIA/EUROPE: Last Nord Stream obstacle cleared


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document