Turkey will export its internal crisis to the Balkans

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Internal Pressure ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Criminal Networks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Thanks to its historical links with Muslims in the Balkans, Turkey has established itself as an influential regional actor, an achievement that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used to boost his position internally and geopolitically. Impacts Falling polling figures for both Erdogan and his ruling party will increase internal pressure on him. Erdogan can exploit difficulties within the ruling Bosniak SDA party. The arrival of Turkish security and criminal networks in the Balkans will present a new security threat for the region.

Bosnia’s local election results could be destabilising

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Quarter Century ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Local Election ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Banja Luka ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Low turnouts in elections in mid-November and ruling party setbacks suggest popular frustration. A quarter-century after the war, Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) is marked by division and dysfunction. Unless a way is found locally or abroad to fix its problems -- and soon -- BiH will slide towards disintegration or even new conflict. Impacts Ruling Bosniak and Bosnian Serb party defeats in Sarajevo and Banja Luka could indicate a shift ahead of 2022 general elections. Change in the White House is expected to bring stronger US involvement in BiH, providing either opportunity or risk. Close EU-US cooperation in the Balkans is a key condition but no guarantee for stabilising BiH and the whole region.

New Taiwan opposition leader could ease China tension

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Charismatic Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cautious Approach ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance He is Beijing's preferred candidate and appears to have a cordial relationship with President Xi Jinping. He takes the helm at a moment when relations with China are the tensest they have been in more than a decade. Impacts Chu will stick to the '1992 Consensus' that there is only one China. Chu will take a more cautious approach to cross-Strait cooperation than Taiwan's last Kuomintang president, Ma Ying-jeou (2008-16). The task of making the Kuomintang a ruling party again will probably require a more charismatic leader than Chu.

Foreign powers will use media for Balkan influence

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Investigative Journalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Radio Free Europe ◽  
Media Corporations ◽  
Privately Owned ◽  
Western Media

Significance Western media have been present in the Balkans for decades through the likes of the BBC and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). Large media corporations in Russia, China and Turkey are also looking to expand, in a region where the information sphere is still largely underdeveloped. Impacts Hungarian media investments in Slovenia and North Macedonia appear to be profit-making although their content reflects Fidesz’s values. Privately owned media can be financially robust although owners sometimes threaten editorial independence. Media with a state-backed agenda are unlikely to encourage the investigative journalism that calls power to account.

Disinformation is a rising security threat to the West

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Social Media ◽  
The United States ◽  
Step Change ◽  
Media Discourse ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Synthetic Media ◽  
Victims Of Bullying

Significance Articles containing the bogus quotes were shared across social media globally. The case illustrates how disinformation is created and spread for malign influence, and its ease of entry into social media discourse, which makes it so difficult to untangle and counter. Impacts Political polarisation within the United States is impeding a 'whole of society' response. Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns will claim the two nations are falsely accused victims of bullying by envious foes. Artificial intelligence-created synthetic media such as deepfakes will enable a step-change in the sophistication of 'infowars'.

Angola court ruling will bolster ruling party

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Court Ruling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ruling Party

Headline ANGOLA: Court ruling will bolster ruling party

Factionalism in Vietnam’s ruling party will increase

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Ruling Party

Headline VIETNAM: Factionalism ruling party will increase

Buhari's electoral bill veto may weaken ruling party

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Ruling Party

Headline NIGERIA: Electoral bill veto may weaken ruling party

Ruling party dominance will mean stability in Mongolia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Party Dominance ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance He was elected on June 9 with a record majority of nearly 68%, after stepping down as prime minister in January. The MPP now holds all the highest offices: the presidency, the office of the prime minister and the office of the speaker of parliament. Impacts Development plans and government finances will rely on rising copper prices. Despite high vaccination levels, COVID-19 is spreading and calls for more lockdowns are growing; these would threaten economic recovery. Beijing will see Khurelsukh as friendlier than his predecessors, but significant concessions to China are unlikely.

Zagreb city boss’s death will upend Croatian politics

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Average ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Municipal elections on May 16 will be particularly significant in Zagreb, where Bandic’s death lays wide open Croatia’s third-most-important political contest, after those for parliament and the presidency. His 20-year rule of Croatia’s capital was dogged by accusations of corruption, including a spell in prison awaiting trial. He died with the Agram case and an appeal against acquittal in another case undecided. Impacts Bandic was a key HDZ ally in the capital, where the ruling party has little traction. His well-established network of political and business associates could try to survive under new leadership. Zagreb is a key political prize in Croatia, with GDP per capita twice the national average and one-fifth of the population.

Ruling party poll win leaves Ethiopia at a crossroads

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Addis Ababa ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Notably, the party defied expectations by reportedly winning comfortably in the capital Addis Ababa. Impacts Ethiopia’s government will invoke the outcome to reject international pressure and perceived encroachments on the country’s sovereignty. As electoral calculations fade, Abiy may have greater scope to make concessions on major national and international disputes. Tigray will remain unrepresented at the national level.

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