Disinformation is a rising security threat to the West

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Social Media ◽  
The United States ◽  
Step Change ◽  
Media Discourse ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Synthetic Media ◽  
Victims Of Bullying

Significance Articles containing the bogus quotes were shared across social media globally. The case illustrates how disinformation is created and spread for malign influence, and its ease of entry into social media discourse, which makes it so difficult to untangle and counter. Impacts Political polarisation within the United States is impeding a 'whole of society' response. Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns will claim the two nations are falsely accused victims of bullying by envious foes. Artificial intelligence-created synthetic media such as deepfakes will enable a step-change in the sophistication of 'infowars'.

Entry barriers could easily thwart China’s tech plans

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Quantum Computing ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Entry Barriers ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technological Competition ◽  
Efficiency And Productivity

Significance These are: artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, genetics, biotechnology, neuroscience and aerospace. Impacts It is not always useful to view technological competition between China and the West as a ‘race’. China will likely burn significant capital just to achieve parity with advanced countries, and may never achieve it. Low margins will encourage protectionism and import substitution, with an impact on efficiency and productivity.

Pragmatism may win out in Turkey over anti-Westernism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Political Trauma ◽  
Coup Attempt

Subject Foreign policy after the attempted coup. Significance Before the July 15 coup attempt, foreign policy was showing signs of turning towards pragmatism from the ambitious positions associated with former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Rapprochement was sought with both Russia and Israel, and relations with the United States and EU were relatively stable. The attempted coup introduces considerable uncertainty. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's insistence that US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind it is drawing the United States into Turkey's most serious political trauma in decades. Impacts Relations with the West are unlikely to return to their pre-coup warmth soon. The most likely result for US-Turkish relations is what may be termed a 'stressed-out partnership of convenience'. How both US-Turkish relations and Turkey's conflict with the PKK develop will determine Turkish policy on Syria and the ISG.

Myanmar civil society will complicate China relations

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
The United States ◽  
Standing Position ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Partner ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
New Space ◽  
Malacca Strait

Subject The role of civil society in China-Myanmar relations. Significance Myanmar's political transition, following the 2010 and 2015 elections, provides new space and opportunities for civil society, challenging China's long-standing position as the country's most important foreign partner. Impacts Lack of skills to engage with civil society in Myanmar will jeopardise China's status as an economic and development partner. Civil society in Myanmar could look towards the West, in particular the United States, for support -- not China. Myanmar has strategic potential as a land-based energy supply route that avoids the Malacca Strait. Rapid economic growth will eventually make Myanmar a market for China as well as supplier of resources. Nonetheless, Myanmar's government will not shun China: its support will be useful in the ethnic ceasefire effort.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

EU may not develop a joint stance on Chinese FDI soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
The West ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
The Eu

Subject Chinese FDI into Europe. Significance China's hosting of the G20 summit on September 4-5 came as it is recalibrating its foreign economic strategy, becoming a major investor in the West and particularly the EU. With a few notable exceptions, EU governments have been keen to encourage those investments. Impacts While China will continue to relax restrictions on investments into its domestic economy, it is unlikely to reciprocate fully to the EU. Sectors China considers strategic, including defence equipment and infrastructure, will remain out of bounds to foreign companies. Concerns about the geostrategic risk of Chinese investments appear to resonate more strongly in Australia and the United States than the EU.

Top powers race for artificially intelligent weapons

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reputational Risk ◽  
Waking Up

Subject Innovation in artificial intelligence-enabled defence systems outside the United States. Significance Besides the United States, China and Russia seek a geostrategic advantage through artificial intelligence(AI)-enabled defence. European governments are also waking up to the potential of such systems, but their efforts are splintered. Impacts The feverish pace of development in China suggests its defence systems may be unreliable or unsafe initially. Western researchers will be more bound by ethical barriers than their Russian and Chinese counterparts. Private sector responses will balance commercial gain and reputational risk.

Western pushback against China will increase

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive View ◽  
Downward Spiral ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Public Views ◽  
The Belt And Road

Significance Senior US officials see Communist-led China as the foremost threat to the United States. The Trump administration’s campaign against it spans the spectrum of government actions: criticism; tariffs; sanctions; regulatory crackdowns; military intimidation; support for Taiwan; and restrictions on imports, exports, investment and visas. Impacts Beijing will have little success in driving a wedge between Washington and its major Western allies. The West is unlikely to produce a convincing alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Negative public views of China incentivise China-bashing by politicians, which in turn feeds negative public opinion in a downward spiral. Beijing will persist in its efforts to encourage a more positive view of China among Western publics.

Election meddling will take new insidious forms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Harmful Content ◽  
Media Firms ◽  
Regulatory Challenge ◽  
User Content ◽  
Election Meddling ◽  
The Eu

Subject Election meddling. Significance With elections due in the EU, Canada and Australia in 2019 and the United States next year, social media firms have made significant efforts to prevent further misuse of their platforms. These efforts are likely to be effective, and manipulation of the kind attempted between 2016 and 2018 will not re-occur. However, the nature of the adversary has changed. The platforms are at risk of preparing to re-fight yesterday’s battles. Impacts Containing the spread of harmful content via fringe platforms is a significant regulatory challenge. Governments may increase their reliance on offensive cybersecurity campaigns to contain foreign interference. Increased privacy on Facebook will make policing fake content harder as the platform will have restricted access to user content.

Much could upset deal on Bosnian state government

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
State Government ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
The Us

Significance Under pressure from the US and EU ambassadors, Bosnia's leaders have reached agreement to form a state government. The breakthrough has provided a badly needed respite from political paralysis; it required difficult concessions from all sides. Impacts By emphasising each side's concessions, politically affiliated media could jeopardise a shaky settlement. The United States and EU are too preoccupied with mainly internal problems to re-engage in Bosnia or the Balkans more concretely. Tensions between Russia and the West are being reflected in Bosnian politics.

China’s ‘new media’ create new markets and new risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Media ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Live Streaming ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Growth ◽  
Short Video ◽  
The Government

Subject Live streaming and short video in China. Significance Live streaming and ‘short video’ apps have fast become mainstream in China. The international growth of Chinese-owned short-video app TikTok has generated fears in the United States that its data policies and censorship constitute a national security threat. Impacts China’s array of internet regulations make it easy for the government to find fault with a firm whose actions it disapproves of. Future laws in China will directly govern the use of the algorithms tech firms use to monitor and censor content. US politicians will be increasingly aware, and wary, of Chinese tech firms that collect data on US citizens.

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