Subject
Outllok for South Sudan's peace process.
Significance
In early May, the signatories to South Sudan’s peace deal agreed to extend the ‘pre-transition’ period (due to expire on May 12) by six months, thereby postponing the formation of a new transitional government. This averted the risk of an immediate crisis, with opposition leader Riek Machar refusing to return to government without stronger security guarantees and President Salva Kiir threatening to form a government with or without Machar. However, it has not resolved any underlying issues.
Impacts
Rivalries are likely to prevent a concerted opposition challenge to government actions.
Calls by some activists for anti-Kiir protests, emulating neighbouring Sudan, are unlikely to transform into a sustained movement.
Despite improved security, clashes will persist in some areas.
Economic improvements will remain meagre.