South Sudan faces crisis moment in peace process

10.1108/oxan-db258626 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

South Sudan ◽

Peace Process ◽

Humanitarian Aid ◽

Content Type ◽

Arms Embargo

Significance However, criticisms of the government’s attitude towards the deal are mounting, among the peace agreement’s signatories as well as international actors. Impacts Non-signatory groups are unlikely to join the deal, but some individuals or sub-groups may be co-opted with offers of money or positions. A UN arms embargo and US and European targeted sanctions will be maintained. Assessed humanitarian aid needs will remain high.

Extension will defer South Sudan peace deal dilemmas

10.1108/oxan-db243913 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Transition Period ◽

South Sudan ◽

Peace Process ◽

Content Type ◽

Security Guarantees

Subject Outllok for South Sudan's peace process. Significance In early May, the signatories to South Sudan’s peace deal agreed to extend the ‘pre-transition’ period (due to expire on May 12) by six months, thereby postponing the formation of a new transitional government. This averted the risk of an immediate crisis, with opposition leader Riek Machar refusing to return to government without stronger security guarantees and President Salva Kiir threatening to form a government with or without Machar. However, it has not resolved any underlying issues. Impacts Rivalries are likely to prevent a concerted opposition challenge to government actions. Calls by some activists for anti-Kiir protests, emulating neighbouring Sudan, are unlikely to transform into a sustained movement. Despite improved security, clashes will persist in some areas. Economic improvements will remain meagre.

Shortcomings will mire the South Sudan peace process

10.1108/oxan-db256948 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Armed Conflict ◽

South Sudan ◽

Peace Process ◽

Institutional Reform ◽

Armed Groups ◽

The South ◽

Significance The agreement has formally held, but implementation is well behind schedule and shows no sign of accelerating. Moreover, there still appears to be little prospect that the agreement will resolve the deeper political ills that have kept South Sudan embroiled in conflict for most of its history. Impacts Rhetorical commitments to institutional reform will translate into changes that are symbolic at best. Escalating armed conflict between the army and other armed groups is still a risk. The economy will remain stagnant.

Flawed choices may birth new South Sudan government

10.1108/oxan-db250780 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

New South ◽

South Sudan ◽

Peace Process ◽

Content Type ◽

Process Implementation

Significance Kiir on February 15 made a major concession by reversing a controversial decentralisation initiative and restoring the country’s original ten states, though Machar has rejected the proposed addition of new ‘administrative areas’. The opposition also has major concerns over multiple other aspects of peace process implementation, but few palatable options. Impacts There is no clarity on how administrative areas would be governed; if Pibor is a guide, they may become states-in-waiting. Some opposition elements will accept the ‘ten-plus-three’ solution, as it protects their own interests. Kiir will need to compensate those in his own camp who lose out from the changes, leaving little room for further concessions to Machar.

Distrust imperils peace process in South Sudan

10.1108/oxan-es210663 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

South Sudan ◽

Peace Process ◽

Headline SOUTH SUDAN: Distrust imperils peace process

South Sudan peace process will fail if not inclusive

10.1108/oxan-es226363 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

South Sudan ◽

Peace Process ◽

Headline SOUTH SUDAN: Peace process will fail if not inclusive

Flaws may undermine fragile South Sudan peace process

10.1108/oxan-db238950 ◽

2018 ◽

Keyword(s):

Civil War ◽

South Sudan ◽

Peace Process ◽

Armed Forces ◽

Content Type ◽

Local Actors ◽

The Government

Significance The warring parties in September signed the latest in a string of peace deals to end five years of civil war. However, one month in, fighting continues and many are gloomy about the prospect of the deal holding. Impacts Implementation will be fraught with challenges and flashpoints, not least cantonment of armed forces and reintegration of rebel soldiers. Anger will grow among those who see the deal as yet another elite pact that fails to address the ‘root causes’ of conflict. Fragmented opposition forces will pose less of a threat to the government but leave large areas under the shifting control of local actors.

South Sudan peace process may fall at the first hurdle

10.1108/oxan-db227774 ◽

2018 ◽

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

South Sudan ◽

Peace Process ◽

Dry Season ◽

Political Control ◽

Controversial Issues ◽

Significance However, despite all faction leaders publicly issuing orders to adhere to the ceasefire, military confrontations were reported in various locations, some within hours of the CoH’s commencement on December 24. All factions involved rejected responsibility, accusing others of instigating attacks. Impacts The CoH will see more violations as the dry season eases movement and parties try to gain advantage on the ground and in negotiations. The government’s battlefield successes will not translate into increased political control. The lack of decision-making power among the parties’ delegates will make binding decisions on controversial issues elusive.