South Sudan peace process faces ingrained stagnation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arms Embargo

Significance However, criticisms of the government’s attitude towards the deal are mounting, among the peace agreement’s signatories as well as international actors. Impacts Non-signatory groups are unlikely to join the deal, but some individuals or sub-groups may be co-opted with offers of money or positions. A UN arms embargo and US and European targeted sanctions will be maintained. Assessed humanitarian aid needs will remain high.

Doubts grow over reforms for Africa's fragile states

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
State Building ◽  
African Union ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Fragile States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Goals

Subject International state-building aid and interventions in Africa. Significance The five most 'fragile' states in the 2014 Fragile States Index are in Africa: South Sudan, Somalia, the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan. Of these, South Sudan and Somalia in particular have been subject to major international efforts at 'state-building'. Meanwhile the DRC, Sudan and to some extent the CAR have for many years hosted high levels of humanitarian aid and large UN, African Union (AU) or sub-regional peace-keeping missions. Yet doubts are growing over the assumptions and effectiveness of international state-building aid and interventions. Impacts Countries in or emerging from long-running conflicts will remain vulnerable to fragmentation and perform worst on global development goals. Infrastructure development in the most conflict-affected countries will remain stunted, sometimes retarding regional linkage schemes. Despite generalised prescriptions for state-building, the specific context will be the decisive factor in success of any interventions.

South Sudan's multiple conflicts will not subside

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sudanese Refugees

Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.

Extension will defer South Sudan peace deal dilemmas

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transition Period ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Guarantees

Subject Outllok for South Sudan's peace process. Significance In early May, the signatories to South Sudan’s peace deal agreed to extend the ‘pre-transition’ period (due to expire on May 12) by six months, thereby postponing the formation of a new transitional government. This averted the risk of an immediate crisis, with opposition leader Riek Machar refusing to return to government without stronger security guarantees and President Salva Kiir threatening to form a government with or without Machar. However, it has not resolved any underlying issues. Impacts Rivalries are likely to prevent a concerted opposition challenge to government actions. Calls by some activists for anti-Kiir protests, emulating neighbouring Sudan, are unlikely to transform into a sustained movement. Despite improved security, clashes will persist in some areas. Economic improvements will remain meagre.

UAE's bolstering of Libya's Haftar is a risky policy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Arms Embargo ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Oil Embargo ◽  
Frozen Conflict

Significance Abu Dhabi has long played a leading but quiet role in the Libya conflict, providing extensive military support to LNA leader Khalifa Haftar over the years, violating a UN arms embargo on Libya. Impacts The Berlin peace process and Europe will lose influence and relevance in a worsening security environment. A prolonged conflict gives Russia more opportunity to entrench at low cost, increasing the likelihood of a long-term ‘frozen conflict’. Algeria and Tunisia may be provoked to step up diplomatic action, as they face the prospect of prolonged instability on their doorstep. The LNA’s oil embargo will continue, harming mainly ENI and Repsol, and possibly provoking fighting around oil terminals.

Economic woes could raise tensions between the Sudans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Free Access ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Arms Embargo ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Sudan and South Sudan. Significance Earlier this month, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir ordered the border with South Sudan to be reopened. It was formally closed in 2011, though enforcement has eased since 2012 due to deepening economic cooperation, formalised in several agreements stipulating the financial terms for exporting South Sudanese oil through Sudan's pipelines to Port Sudan. Impacts Russian opposition will probably scupper other UN Security Council proposals to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan. Growing -- albeit small -- numbers of Syrian refugees will likely settle in Khartoum, facilitated by their visa-free access to Sudan. Uganda and South Sudan will proceed on finalising demarcation of their common, disputed border, but localised tensions could persist.

Shortcomings will mire the South Sudan peace process

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type

Significance The agreement has formally held, but implementation is well behind schedule and shows no sign of accelerating. Moreover, there still appears to be little prospect that the agreement will resolve the deeper political ills that have kept South Sudan embroiled in conflict for most of its history. Impacts Rhetorical commitments to institutional reform will translate into changes that are symbolic at best. Escalating armed conflict between the army and other armed groups is still a risk. The economy will remain stagnant.

Flawed choices may birth new South Sudan government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Process Implementation

Significance Kiir on February 15 made a major concession by reversing a controversial decentralisation initiative and restoring the country’s original ten states, though Machar has rejected the proposed addition of new ‘administrative areas’. The opposition also has major concerns over multiple other aspects of peace process implementation, but few palatable options. Impacts There is no clarity on how administrative areas would be governed; if Pibor is a guide, they may become states-in-waiting. Some opposition elements will accept the ‘ten-plus-three’ solution, as it protects their own interests. Kiir will need to compensate those in his own camp who lose out from the changes, leaving little room for further concessions to Machar.

South Sudan faces crisis moment in peace process

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type

Headline SOUTH SUDAN: Crisis moment in peace process looms

Distrust imperils peace process in South Sudan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type

Headline SOUTH SUDAN: Distrust imperils peace process

South Sudan peace process will fail if not inclusive

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type

Headline SOUTH SUDAN: Peace process will fail if not inclusive

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