Shortcomings will mire the South Sudan peace process

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type

Significance The agreement has formally held, but implementation is well behind schedule and shows no sign of accelerating. Moreover, there still appears to be little prospect that the agreement will resolve the deeper political ills that have kept South Sudan embroiled in conflict for most of its history. Impacts Rhetorical commitments to institutional reform will translate into changes that are symbolic at best. Escalating armed conflict between the army and other armed groups is still a risk. The economy will remain stagnant.

South Sudan peace process faces ingrained stagnation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arms Embargo

Significance However, criticisms of the government’s attitude towards the deal are mounting, among the peace agreement’s signatories as well as international actors. Impacts Non-signatory groups are unlikely to join the deal, but some individuals or sub-groups may be co-opted with offers of money or positions. A UN arms embargo and US and European targeted sanctions will be maintained. Assessed humanitarian aid needs will remain high.

Food insecurity will persist in South Sudan

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Produce ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

Significance Areas of South Sudan were once predicted to become the ‘food basket’ of East Africa, making the country a net exporter of agricultural produce. However, even before independence in 2011, the government did little to increase agricultural output. Meanwhile, severe under-development, armed conflict and resulting displacement of civilians have together meant that food insecurity has been a persistent feature of life for many. Localised intensifications in fighting, disruptions to market routes and obstructions by parties to conflict have recently caused increases in food insecurity, tipping some of the population into famine conditions. Impacts Conflict has resulted in displacements, limiting subsistence agricultural activity. Poor economic management, leading to high and rising inflation, has rendered the food in the markets unaffordable to most of the population. Political forces have actively prevented food aid from reaching those in need, exacerbating the famine.

Relative prosperity will prolong Libya's civil war

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
The Other ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Dominance

Significance His comments are optimistic. The other two rival administrations that are based in Libya have resisted efforts to form a unified government, while armed groups (some associated with the administrations, others independent) compete for local dominance. As a result, intermittent escalations in fighting and sporadic attacks by fringe militias continue to occur in parts of the country. Concern has grown about the impact on civilians. Impacts Bombings and outbreaks of intense fighting will remain a risk in key contested locations in the north. Clashes between militias will recur sporadically in the south. The number of migrants working in Libya and seeking to travel to Europe may increase again.

Myanmar peace process could collapse post-2020

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Military Personnel ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Ethnic Minority Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
China And India ◽  
National League

Significance The meeting, which will be the third in the process so far, has been delayed due to disagreements among ethnic minority groups, including ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs). Myanmar’s next general election is due in 2020, when State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will be seeking to retain control of the civilian portion of government. Impacts While ongoing violence may dissuade Western investors, China and India will see opportunity rather than risk in Myanmar. China will encourage EMAGs to negotiate peace. Myanmar military personnel will face US sanctions over attacks on Rohingya Muslims.

Extension will defer South Sudan peace deal dilemmas

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transition Period ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Guarantees

Subject Outllok for South Sudan's peace process. Significance In early May, the signatories to South Sudan’s peace deal agreed to extend the ‘pre-transition’ period (due to expire on May 12) by six months, thereby postponing the formation of a new transitional government. This averted the risk of an immediate crisis, with opposition leader Riek Machar refusing to return to government without stronger security guarantees and President Salva Kiir threatening to form a government with or without Machar. However, it has not resolved any underlying issues. Impacts Rivalries are likely to prevent a concerted opposition challenge to government actions. Calls by some activists for anti-Kiir protests, emulating neighbouring Sudan, are unlikely to transform into a sustained movement. Despite improved security, clashes will persist in some areas. Economic improvements will remain meagre.

Myanmar armed groups eye leverage through 2020 poll

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
National League ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Government

Subject Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations. Significance The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense. Impacts Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced. Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy. China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.

Deadly Thai insurgency shows no signs of ending

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The South ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the southern insurgency. Significance Thai security forces went on alert in early March ahead of the 55th anniversary of the founding of the National Revolutionary Front (BRN), one of the primary militias in southern Thailand's insurgency. During the week of the anniversary, there were four shootings and a bombing. These attacks followed the junta's claim that overall violence has declined in the region. The military has raised the prospect of a new peace process, although progress in organising the next round has been slow. Impacts The insurgency will have a limited impact on the economy; its impact will largely be confined to some SEZ plans. Improvements in Thailand's ties with Malaysia will be key to beginning a meaningful peace process. Violence in the south is unlikely to impede the drafting of a new constitution and the conduct of fresh parliamentary polls.

Khartoum will resist committing to power sharing

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
The West ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
South Kordofan

Significance Since South Sudan seceded in 2011, Khartoum has confronted conflict on three fronts. Armed conflict escalated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan in mid-2011, while clashes between pro- and anti-government forces and outbreaks of inter-communal fighting have plagued Darfur and West Kordofan. Impacts Ongoing conflict will dash hopes of Sudan's removal from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Reports about fighting and atrocities in areas to which the government restricts access will further strain relations with the West. Khartoum will continue to pressure Juba against providing support to any rebel groups in Sudan. The government will step up its call that AU-UN peacekeepers withdraw from Darfur.

Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism will face strains

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Ethnic Conflict ◽  
Current System ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
National Level ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Borders ◽  
Ethnic Federalism

Subject Challenges to Ethiopia's system of ethnic federalism. Significance Ethiopia’s Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) was until recently considered a region of relative peace and tolerance. However, recent inter-ethnic conflict has thrown it into turmoil. Moreover, new demands for statehood being voiced by ethnic groups could have far-reaching consequences for both the region and the nation. Impacts Statehood bids could lead to races for resources and subsequent conflicts. Attempts to resolve federal problems at a national level could frustrate those who are content with the current system. Instability in the south could cross international borders and worsen people-to-people relations with Kenya and South Sudan.

Regional states will influence South Sudan’s conflict

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Regional Politics ◽  
Content Type

Significance The announcement comes as security deteriorates, evidenced by the flow of refugees into Uganda, estimated at over 795,000 people. After a year of renewed fighting, South Sudan is shaping regional politics and relations. Impacts A proliferation of armed groups will complicate the prospects for halting hostilities. The economy will fail to improve significantly amid insecurity. Declining US interest in the conflict opens opportunities for regional states to increase their influence.

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