Italian elections boost coalition’s survival prospects

Headline ITALY: Regional elections boost government stability

Significance In the first round of mayoral, municipal and regional elections on May 16, voters in Croatia’s larger cities and urban centres tilted towards challengers. This year’s local polls present a much better chance of political renewal than several recent national votes. Zagreb, Split, Rijeka and Osijek are electing new mayors, as incumbents are not standing for re-election. Impacts Mozemo!’s programme for Zagreb will focus attention on green energy, digital economy, health, culture and post-earthquake reconstruction. Challenger candidates would cut public-sector jobs to reduce city budgets, but it is unclear whether this will be followed through. A victory for Ivica Puljak in Split could boost centrist politics at national level and start dismantling HDZ dominance in Dalmatia. The election of an independent mayor in Vodnjan backed by local IT giant Infobip is a warning for the Istrian Democratic Assembly party.


Significance The polls, especially the battles to control Madrid and Barcelona, will influence September's regional election in Catalonia and the general election due late this year. With many regional elections unlikely to produce an outright winner, subsequent negotiations will provide pointers to possible future national coalition government, after 38 years of single-party rule. Impacts Competition from Podemos -- despite that party's difficulties -- seems likely to obstruct any PSOE bandwagon generated from the elections. Support from Citizens for local minority PP rule will require policy concessions, although national economic policy would not be affected. Electoral and policy gains by Citizens may encourage voters to transfer their support from the PP. In some places, Citizens may side with the PSOE, to show it is serious about reform. In some regions, a loss of PP control may spell an end to the controversial privatisation of hospital services.


Subject Prospects for India to end-2016. Significance Policymakers are counting on improved agrarian performance, cheaper credit and economic diplomacy to drive growth in coming months. On the political front, after a modest triumph in the last round of regional elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are emboldened but still politically encumbered.


Subject Prospects for North Africa in 2020. Significance The region is divided between areas of government stability, in Egypt and Morocco, and significant upheaval and turmoil, as in Algeria and Libya. Tunisia is also experiencing change as recent elections produced a strong result for anti-establishment parties, posing governance challenges in 2020.


Significance Khabarovsk is entering a third week of sustained protests following the arrest of regional governor Sergey Furgal. The Kremlin has not responded to this act of rebellion and has instead produced a hierarchical solution, installing a replacement governor with none of the skills needed in this explosive situation. Impacts The timing means that (barring a rule change) Khabarovsk's gubernatorial election is likely next year, not this. The protests in Khabarovsk and elsewhere may damage electoral support for United Russia in regional and parliamentary elections. A new law allowing voting over several days, initially in regional elections, will permit manipulation to keep United Russia's vote up. If the situation deteriorates, the president will shift the blame onto the Liberal Democratic Party.


Headline VENEZUELA: Regional elections risk chaotic outcome


Headline SOMALIA: Regional elections will prove contentious


Significance On the basis of exit polls and preliminary rapid counts, the MAS has clearly suffered an electoral reverse. However, in line with previous sub-national elections, this reflects the problem the party has in selecting sufficient candidates at that level who command widespread support. For the opposition, the election represented something of a recovery from its poor showing in last October's presidential and legislative elections. Impacts Demographic trends will further underline the political and economic strength of Santa Cruz vis-a-vis La Paz. The downturn in natural gas prices will mean that the government will have less money to redistribute to sub-national tiers of government. Costas has reaffirmed his position as Morales's chief political foe, but his appeal beyond Santa Cruz is limited.


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