Central banks will prioritise fuelling the recovery

Headline INTERNATIONAL: Banks will prioritise the recovery

Significance The cost of gas-fired generation sets the electricity price in much of Europe today. Falling indigenous production has left Europe reliant on gas imports and exposed it to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices set by fast-recovering China. This has left retail-only electricity suppliers vulnerable and increases the risk that falling disposable incomes will undermine post-pandemic recovery. Impacts EU carbon allowance prices will stay strong. Higher energy prices will stoke inflation amid a fragile recovery, posing a dilemma for central banks. Rising gas prices have had ancillary but potentially alarming impacts as some fertiliser and CO2 producers have shut in production.


2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Carretta ◽  
Vincenzo Farina ◽  
Paola Schwizer

Purpose This paper aims to analyzing the main risk culture traits of a sample of Central Banks and Supervisory Authorities in Europe as well as of the European Central Bank (ECB). Design/methodology/approach Risk culture is measured through text data processing of the official discourses made by the head Supervisory Authorities, during the years from 1999 to 2012. Findings Results highlight heterogeneous but converging risk cultures for European Union (EU) supervisors and the presence of a “distance” between these cultures and the risk culture of the ECB. Originality/value The paper points out that cultural differences, especially in presence of credit markets still characterized by poor integration, could create unwanted distortion effects during the initial stages of the Banking Union.


Significance Mounting concerns that a faster-than-expected global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will spur inflation, forcing the leading central banks to signal an earlier-than-expected withdrawal of monetary stimulus, have contributed to renewed pressure on the lira. Although Turkey is less vulnerable than it was in 2013, it is still acutely susceptible to a sharp deterioration in risk appetite. Impacts Policy tightening in the fourth quarter will probably be reflected in lower growth in the current and later quarters. Provided the coronavirus threat fades and vaccination proceeds apace, the prospects for tourism and some service sectors will improve. Base effects and financial and economic stability may allow growth of 3-5% in 2021, despite lira volatility and high corporate debt levels.


Significance It will not be easy to reconcile new tasks with traditional price-stability mandates. Moreover, it is not clear what data banks should use to measure progress, while a green transition will depend on closer coordination with governments, creating challenges for politically independent central banks. Impacts As governments raise carbon taxes, there will be calls to loosen monetary policy to offset their deflationary effect. ‘Mission creep’ is a risk for authorities; financial firms may incur losses if politicians fail to follow through on carbon price moves. Green investments risk a bubble effect, especially as short-run supplies of metals such as cobalt and lithium are limited.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Dupuis ◽  
Kimberly Gleason ◽  
Zhijie Wang

Purpose The purpose of this study is to describe the present taxonomy of money, summarize potential central bank digital currency (CBDC) regimes that central banks worldwide could adopt and explore the implications of the introduction of each of these CDBC regimes for money laundering through the lens of the regulatory dialectic theory. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used in the analysis of significant recent events regarding the progress of central banks in establishing a CBDC and the implications for money laundering under a CBDC regime. This paper also reviews the literature regarding the Regulatory Dialectic to highlight potential innovative responses of money launderers to circumvent the controls generated through the implementation of a CBDC. Findings This study examines the impact of Kane’s regulatory dialectic paradigm on the feasibility of money laundering under a CBDC regime and identifies potential avenues that would be available for those seeking to launder money, based on the form a CBDC would take. Research limitations/implications This paper is unable as of yet to empirically evaluate anti-money laundering (AML) tactics under a CBDC regime as it has not yet been fully implemented. Practical implications Many central banks worldwide are evaluating the structure of and introduction of a CBDC. There are a number of forms that a CBDC could take, each of which has implications for individual privacy and for entities involved in AML efforts within financial institutions and the regulatory community. The paper has implications for AML experts who are considering how AML procedures would change under a CBDC regime. Social implications The regulatory dialectic predicts that regulatory response reactive, rather than proactive when it comes to socially undesirable phenomena. As central banks and governments seek to divert economic activity away from the laundering of the proceeds of illicit activity, there are tradeoffs in terms of a loss of privacy. The regulatory dialectic predicts a corresponding innovative response of those who wish to undermine the controls generated through the establishment of a CBDC. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to explore the impact of a potential CBDC on money laundering and the potential innovative circumventions within the paradigm of the Regulatory Dialectic.


Significance The surge in inflation this year owes more to supply bottlenecks caused by the release of pent-up demand than to falling unemployment. In the decade before the pandemic, US unemployment more than halved and euro-area unemployment nearly halved, but inflation remained below target in both economic areas. Impacts Central banks face the dilemma of raising rates too early for growth and too late for inflation, and may struggle to dampen expectations. The threat of a possible revival of the pandemic will help temporarily to cool inflation expectations that have surged in 2021. The trade-off between unemployment and inflation that has been missing for many years may emerge again once the pandemic is finally over.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 577-591
Author(s):  
Vighneswara Swamy

Purpose The significant economic weight of the Eurozone in the globe caused the contagion of the Eurozone debt crisis on the emerging markets. The Eurozone debt crisis caused the sudden plummeting of the cross-border bank credit (BC) to India causing a significant impact on bank lending in India. Essentially, the purpose of this study is to find an answer to the question: Did the decline in cross-border cross-credit from Eurozone had an impact on domestic BC in India? Design/methodology/approach Using the data for the period from 2000 to 2013 sourced from Bank for International Settlements international banking statistics consolidated data sets, the novel specification of the study captures the impact of Eurozone cross-border credit on India by developing two regression frameworks that capture the pre-Euro debt crisis period scenario and post-Euro debt crisis period scenario. Findings The results offer a very interesting analogy of the behavior of BC and cross-border credit during the pre and post-Eurozone crisis scenarios of analysis. During the pre-Eurozone crisis period, cross-border credit displayed a significant negative relationship with BC indicating that cross-border credit to the Indian firms indirectly benefitted the banks by creating increased demand for domestic BC. The post-Eurozone crisis period witnessed a nexus between cross-border credit and BC during the pre-Eurozone crisis period, which gradually disappeared largely because of the onset of the Eurozone crisis. Originality/value This study is a first of its kind in investigating the impact of the Eurozone crisis on an emerging economy like India. This study supports the hypothesis of the existence of the transmission of financial shocks through the balance sheets of international banks. The findings conform to the policy concerns of most of the emerging economies that international banks transmit financial shocks from their home countries. The implication for India and other emerging economies is that international credit growth deserves careful monitoring.


2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 911-938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Edoardo Beretta

PurposeThe paper explores the precarious balance between modernizing monetary systems by means of digital currencies (either issued by the central bank itself or independently) and safeguarding financial stability as also ensured by tangible payment (and saving) instruments like paper money.Design/methodology/approachWhich aspects of modern payment systems could contribute to improve the way of functioning of today's globalized economy? And, which might even threaten the above-mentioned instable equilibrium? This survey paper aims, precisely, at giving some preliminary answers to a complex – therefore, ongoing – debate at scientific as well as banking and political levels.FindingsThe coexistence of State's money (i.e. “legal tender”) and cryptocurrencies can have a disciplining effect on central banks. Nevertheless, there are still high risks connected to the introduction of central bank digital currency, which should be by far not considered to be a perfect substitute of current cash. At the same time, cryptocurrencies issued by central banks might be exposed to the drawbacks of cryptocurrencies without benefiting from correspondingly strong advantages. A well-governed two-tier system to be achieved through innovation in payment infrastructures might be, in turn, more preferable. Regulated competition by new players combined with “traditional” deposits and central bank elements remains essential, although central banks should embrace the technologies underlying cryptocurrencies, because risk payment service providers could move to other currency areas considered to be more appealing for buyers and sellers.Research limitations/implicationsWe do not see specific limitations besides the fact that the following is for sure a broad field of scientific research to be covered, which is at the same time at the origin of ongoing developments and findings. Originality and implications of the paper are, instead, not only represented by its conclusions (which highlight the role of traditional payment instruments and stress why the concept of “money” still has to have specific features) but also by its approach of recent literature's review combined with equally strong logical-analytical insights.Practical implicationsIn the light of these considerations, even the role of traditional payment systems like paper money is by far not outdated or cannot be – at this point, at least – replaced by central bank digital currencies (whose features based on dematerialization despite being issued and guaranteed by a public authority are very different).Social implicationsNo matter which form it might assume is what differentiates economic from barter transactions. This conclusion is by far not tautological or self-evident since the notion of money has historically been a great object of scientific discussion. In the light of increasingly modern payment instruments, there is no question that money and the effectiveness of related monetary policies have to be also explored from a social perspective according to different monetary scenarios, ranging from central bank digital currencies to private currencies and cash restrictions/abolition.Originality/valueThe originality/value of the following article is represented by the fact that it (1) refers to some of the most relevant and recent contributions to this research field, (2) moves from payment systems in general to their newest trends like cryptocurrencies, cash restrictions (or, even, abolition proposals) and monetary policy while (3) combining all elements to reach a common picture. The paper aims at being a comprehensive contribution dealing with "money" in its broadest but also newest sense.


Significance In the worst start to a year for US equities since 2008, the benchmark S&P 500 index fell 0.7% during the week ending January 10. December's employment report showed US non-farm payrolls rising by a robust 252,000, but average hourly earnings declined, accentuating deflationary fears. The dollar continued to strengthen against the euro on concerns about a possible euro crisis over Greece and the introduction of sovereign QE by the ECB. With the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise rates, investor sentiment remains fragile. Impacts The tug-of-war between central bank largesse and country-specific, geopolitical and economic risks will become more intense. Markets will focus on renewed fears of 'Grexit' and on concerns about German opposition to an ECB sovereign QE programme. The relentless oil prices slide, exacerbated by the dollar's strength, will put further strain on EM assets. The ruble is likely to weaken further, increasing the scope for contagion to other developing economies.


Subject Opposite forces are shaping investor sentiment towards EM assets. Significance Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) assets is being shaped by the conflicting forces of a strong dollar and the launch of a sovereign quantitative easing (QE) programme by the ECB. While the latter is likely to encourage investment into higher-yielding assets, such as EM debt, the former will keep the currencies of developing economies under strain, particularly those most sensitive to a rise in US interest rates due to heavier reliance on capital inflows to finance large current account deficits, such as Turkey and South Africa. Impacts EM bonds will benefit from ECB-related inflows, while the strength of the dollar will keep local currencies under strain. Higher-yielding EMs will benefit the most from the ECB's bond-buying scheme since they provide the greatest scope for 'carry trades'. The collapse in oil prices is forcing EM central banks to turn increasingly dovish, putting further strain on local currencies.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document