Pyongyang's missile test may play into Seoul politics

Headline NORTH KOREA: Missile test may affect politics in Seoul

Headline NORTH KOREA: Missile test reveals new capabilities


Headline NORTH KOREA: Missile test aims to instil urgency


Headline NORTH KOREA/US: Missile test raises stakes in talks


Headline NORTH KOREA: Missile test will spur regional arms race


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Headline NORTH KOREA: Kim will double down on nuclear deterrent


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Headline NORTH KOREA: Halting trade again will prevent recovery


Significance It also benefits from policies that heavily favour the domestic arms industry. This has resulted in a well-equipped modern military and a high degree of self-reliance in equipping it. However, this model may be unsustainable. Impacts Seoul will likely attempt to expand armaments collaboration with other countries to gain additional resources, technologies and markets. China’s military modernisation is an increasing concern, including in the context of potential war with China’s ally, North Korea. Threats from North Korea make air and missile defence the top procurement priorities.


Subject The impact of recent by-elections and an ongoing corruption scandal. Significance Lee Wan-koo resigned as premier on April 21 after just two months in post. He and seven other associates of President Park Geun-hye were named in an interview and suicide note by Sung Wan-jong -- former head of a construction firm -- who hanged himself on April 9. All deny taking money from Sung, but Lee's position became untenable. In better news for Park, her Saenuri Party won three hitherto opposition-held seats in by-elections on April 29. Her approval rating as of May 1 was 39%, up four points in a week. Impacts Park's personal popularity is holding up, but this does not imply effective policy-making ahead. The main opposition, which lost all four by-elections, is in turmoil and may split. Park may try to regain popularity by easing policy toward North Korea.


Subject Japan's military space programme. Significance Japan's national space systems, particularly when linked to those of the United States, make it one of the pre-eminent military space powers regionally, if not globally. Impacts Japan's militarisation of space indicates a determination to face down threats from North Korea and China. Augmentation of Japanese space power should enhance US deterrence against China. Japan's attempt to match China's space capabilities risks an arms race in yet another dimension.


Subject Zinc market Significance The zinc price rose by more than 50% last year -- the best performance of all base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME). After approaching a ten-year high of 2,900 dollars per tonne in November, the price remains sharply higher than its low of 1,500 a year ago. Mine closures in Australia and Ireland removed 1.1 million tonnes of zinc from the market, limiting the increase in output last year to an estimated 0.5%. In contrast, demand rose strongly, led by Chinese infrastructure spending, which accounts for around one-quarter of zinc demand. The 2016 deficit was estimated at 400,000-600,000 tonnes, the fifth year of shortfalls. Impacts Northern Chinese smelters are increasingly turning to North Korea for zinc concentrate, making the country China's third-largest supplier. Namibia's Skorpion mine may close two years earlier than forecast, removing an estimated 140,000 tonnes of refined metal from the market. South Africa's Gamsberg mine, one of the world's largest undeveloped zinc deposits, is due to begin production in 2018. Rising prices are attracting more buyers for the mines that Belgium-based producer Nyrstar has for sale under its restructuring programme.


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