ANALISA KELAYAKAN INVESTASI ALAT PENGOLAHAN KERAK TEMBAGA DI PT. TEMBAGA MULIA SEMANAN

PT. Tembaga Mulia Semanan adalah salah satu perusahaan yang bergerak dibidang peleburan tembaga terkemuka di Indonesia.Memiliki jumlah kerak tembaga sebanyak 32.266 kg. Masalah yang dihadapi perusahaan adalah ketika kerak tembaga ini harus dijual dan dihargai hanya 73% dari harga LME (London Metal Exchange). Sehingga perusahaan mengalami kerugian 27%. Untuk memperbaiki masalah ini perusahaan membuat alat pengolahan kerak tembaga dan melakukan analisa investasi alat pengolahan ketak tembaga ini. Hasil perhitungan metode NPV (Net Present Value) adalah RP 366,79 juta, maka layak secara economis. Hasil perhitungan metode IRR (Internal Rate of Return) untuk MARR 15% adalah IRR = 26,94%, maka investasi tersebut layak secara economis. Hasil perhitungan metode BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) adalah 1,528 maka investasi tersebut layak secara economis. Hasil perhitungan metode PBP (Peyback period) adalah k = 2,621 < n = 10 tahun, maka memenuhi syarat dan layak secara economis.

Implicit Interpretation of Indonesian Export Bans on LME Nickel Prices: Evidence from the Announcement Effect

Forecasting of LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel prices remains an interesting topic but lacks consensus. This study aims to fill knowledge gaps by demonstrating the announcement effect of export bans by the Indonesian government. This article focuses on Indonesia because Indonesia produces more than 60% of global nickel ore. We identified the sequence of two episodes in which Indonesian export bans of nickel ore appeared to increase LME nickel prices through the Romer and Romer (1989) approach. The impact of the Indonesian export ban in 2014 is somewhat larger than that of 2019. The shock on the LME nickel market in 2014 was sustained for a while after the ban was implemented. We believe that this is the first export ban that has had unexpected effects within the market.

Production cuts will rebalance the lithium market

Significance The two-year inventory glut was expected to clear in early 2020, but automaker shutdowns due to COVID-19 have rippled through the lithium value chain. Miners have cut production and delayed capacity upgrades in response to lower prices. Yet there are signs of demand improving, led by electric vehicle (EV) sales in Europe. Impacts Russia’s Uranium One plans to begin producing lithium (mostly from foreign ores) in 2023, aiming to have 10% of the global market by 2030. London Metal Exchange is working to develop reference pricing to offer lithium hedging services; this would facilitate more trading. Nascent lithium recycling business will take about a decade to capture waste streams profitably. Prices to make capital spending worthwhile stand at about USD12,000 per tonne for carbonate and USD15,000 for hydroxide projects. Speciality grade prices will recover first; long-range EVs use prized nickel-heavy batteries, favouring lithium hydroxide over carbonate.

Examining the evidence of risk spillovers between Shanghai and London non-ferrous futures markets: a dynamic Copula-CoVaR approach

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the evidence of risk spillovers between Shanghai and London non-ferrous futures markets using a dynamic Copula-CoVaR approach.Design/methodology/approachWith daily data, the marginal distributions and optimal Copula functions are determined using the kernel estimation method and squared Euclidean distance test. The conditional value-at-risk and the conditional value-at-risk spillover rate are computed from the Copula estimated parameters based on the Copula-CoVaR model. Also, the dynamic correlation coefficient between the two futures markets is investigated.FindingsThe empirical results are as follows: overall, the risk spillover effect exerted by the London Metal Exchange on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is more significant than vice versa. Moreover, the degree of risk spillovers exerted by the London Metal Exchange on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for zinc and copper are more significant when they are depressed in the London Metal Exchange. Moreover, the dynamic of the correlation between the Shanghai and London futures markets is attributed to be largely due to changes in the global economy.Research limitations/implicationsThe Copula-CoVaR model used in this paper is suitable for measuring the risk spillovers between two different markets, while the risk spillovers across multiple markets or the consideration of multiple risk factors cannot be accurately captured using this framework. Multiple state variables to capture time variation in the conditional moments of return series will be a topic in future research.Practical implicationsThe results provide theoretical support for risk management and monitoring of the non-ferrous futures markets.Originality/valueThe ability of the Copula function to accurately describe a nonlinear relationship and tail correlation is harnessed to measure the risk spillovers, explore the degree and direction of risk spillovers and identify the source of risk spillovers. The global economy is incorporated as a macro factor to explore its inner connection with the dynamic of risk spillovers in the non-ferrous metal futures market.

Direct Effect of TC on the LME Copper Prices

The motivation of this paper is to identify the effect of treatment charge (TC) on LME (London Metal Exchange) copper prices. It is a fundamental variable as a supply side factor, because it is related to the smelting process and reflects the level of concentrates market tightness. To examine this question carefully, the regression model is applied. This paper finds a statistically significant negative link between TC and LME copper prices. It is found that a 10% increase in TC of copper decreases in copper return by 1.8%. Subsequently, the vector autoregression (VAR) model is introduced to consider the impact of TC to copper prices as a permanent effect. It is found that the negative impact of the TC to copper returns dies out quickly. The statistical estimation in this article will provide a good reference for future study.

Analysis of Selected Seasonality Effects in the Following Metal Markets: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper

The commodity market has been becoming one of the most popular segments of the financial markets among individual and institutional investors in recent years. Similarly to the eąuity market, the problem of anomalies in the commodities market is becoming an interesting phenomenon, especially in the segment of the precious metals. This paper tests the hypothesis of monthly, the day-of-the week and weekend effects of the precious metal markets ąuoted on the London Metal Exchange for gold, silver, platinum and copper in the period of 1.01.1995-31.12.2015 considering also palladium in the period 1.01.1998-31.12.2015. Calculations presented in this paper indicate the absence of the monthly effect on gold, silver, platinum, copper markets but proved occurrence of monthly anomaly in the month of September on palladium market. In the analyzed period day- of-the week effect for any of the studied metal markets was not observed but the weekend effect was registered on the gold and copper markets.

On the Optimal Dynamic Hedging with Nonferrous Metals

This paper employs multivariate GARCH to model conditional correlations and to examine volatility spillovers and hedging possibilities with nonferrous metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) market. Three different multivariate GARCH models (diagonal, CCC and DCC) are employed and contrasted. The nonferrous metals studied are copper, aluminum, tin, lead, zinc and nickel and span the period from January 6, 2000 to February 29, 2016. The multivariate DCC GARCH framework is found to fit the data in an appropriate design and provides results showing the strongest evidence of long-term persistence volatility spillovers between lead and aluminum. We also find that the Hurst exponents given by the R/S method are on average 0.94, indicating the existence of a strong degree of long-range dependence in conditional volatilities. On average, the cheapest hedge is a long position in lead and a short position in nickel. The most expensive hedge is long nickel and short copper.

Tech advances will bolster long-term copper demand

Subject The copper market. Significance The copper price has picked up by nearly 9% this year after weakening unexpectedly through 2018, losing 17.5%. Unusually, the slide was accompanied by metal inventories dropping steadily on the London Metal Exchange, Comex and Shanghai Metals Exchange. Stocks peaked at 900 kilotonnes (kt) in March 2018 before plummeting by 65% to start the year at the lowest since 2014. This rare combination of falling inventories and weakening prices has yet to find a viable explanation. Impacts Zambian import duties on concentrate has prompted 366 kt of capacity to be shutdown, reducing supply on the market. Boosting the outlook for US output, the US Environmental Protection Agency has approved Hudbay’s 112-kt-per-year Rosemont mine in Arizona. Chilean miner Codelco is spending 4.9 billion dollars to mine underground at Chuquicamata, aiming to extend operations by 40 years. Indonesia, the ninth largest copper producer, is to redirect output towards local smelters; it has cut annual export quotas by 25-75%.