Risk Analysis of Construction Schedule Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing-xia Wang ◽  
Jian-wen Huang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Schedule

Analysis of Project Shedule Risk Indexes in PERT Network Using Monte Carlo Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 760-762 ◽  
pp. 2205-2211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Zhuo Fu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Critical Index ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Schedule Risk ◽  
Schedule Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Schedule

It is convenient and effective to use Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique in project schedule risk analysis and assessment, but at the same time, the indexes put forward by scholars up to now is quite few, leaving construction schedule risk assessment still difficult to carry out. Therefore, based on PERT network assumption, the shortcomings of current project schedule risk indexes are summarized and new project schedule risk index is put forward to estimate the criticality of each activity and path to provide more information for project schedule controllers. In the case studied, with the application of the new index, the critical index of each activity is given and divided into five levels, and the new index put forward in this paper shows great superiority over the classic indexes.

Risk Analysis by Monte Carlo Simulation over Large Offshore Projects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agostino Bruzzone ◽  
Kirill Sinelshchikov ◽  
Federico Tarone ◽  
Federica Grosso
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Risk Analysis

A Weighted Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Risk Assessment of Information Security Management System

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 63-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Bamakan ◽  
Mohammad Dehghanimohammadabadi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Management System ◽  
Security Management ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Information Security Management ◽  
Information Security Management System

In recent decades, information has become a critical asset to various organizations, hence identifying and preventing the loss of information are becoming competitive advantages for firms. Many international standards have been developed to help organizations to maintain their competitiveness by applying risk assessment and information security management system and keep risk level as low as possible. This study aims to propose a new quantitative risk analysis and assessment methodology which is based on AHP and Monte Carlo simulation. In this method, AHP is used to create favorable weights for Confidentiality, Integrity and Availability (CIA) as security characteristic of any information asset. To deal with the uncertain nature of vulnerabilities and threats, Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to handle the stochastic nature of risk assessment by taking into account multiple judges' opinions. The proposed methodology is suitable for organizations that require risk analysis to implement ISO/IEC 27001 standard.

Risk Management of Construction Schedule by PERT with Monte Carlo Simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 548-549 ◽  
pp. 1646-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Yan Li
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Control Points ◽  
Schedule Management ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Critical Paths ◽  
Construction Schedule

It has been proved that the construction schedule management was an uncertain problem. Traditional CPM method was a good way to define the total duration and critical paths but can not solve uncertainty. The paper use CPM to define the duration and critical path firstly, then defined the parameters with Delphi and make Monte Carlo simulation. Through simulation results, it is found that the probability to finish the work on time was only 35.3%. The following step is to make sensitivity analysis, through the calculation, the work which has large influence was found and treat as key control points. It is proved that Monte Carlo simulation is useful to solve the problem of construction schedule management.

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