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Headline ARGENTINA: Rising COVID cases represent economic risk


Author(s):  
Günther Schauberger ◽  
Martin Schönhart ◽  
Werner Zollitsch ◽  
Stefan J. Hörtenhuber ◽  
Leopold Kirner ◽  
...  

Economic risks for livestock production are caused by volatile commodities and market conditions, but also by environmental drivers like increasing uncertainties due to weather anomalies and global warming. These risks impact the gross margin of farmers and can stimulated investment decisions. For confined pig and poultry production, farmers can reduce the environmental impact by implementing specific adaptation measures to reduce heat stress. A simulation model driven by meteorological data was used to calculate heat stress impact as a projection for 2030. For a business-as-usual livestock building, the indoor climate for several adaptation measures was calculated. The weather-related value-at risk quantified the economic risks caused by global warming and the stochastic component of the weather. The results show that only energy-saving adaptation measures to reduce the inlet air temperature are appropriate to reduce the economic risk to the level of the year 1980. The efficiency of other adaptation measures to reduce heat stress is distinctly lower. The results in this study can support the decision making of farmers concerning adaptation management and investments. It can inform agricultural policy design as well as technological development.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13542
Author(s):  
Nitesh Kumar Singh ◽  
Chaitali Koley ◽  
Sadhan Gope ◽  
Subhojit Dawn ◽  
Taha Selim Ustun

Due to the restructuring of the power system, customers always try to obtain low-cost power efficiently and reliably. As a result, there is a chance to violate the system security limit, or the system may run in risk conditions. In this paper, an economic risk analysis of a power system considering wind and pumped hydroelectric storage (WPHS) hybrid system is presented with the help of meta-heuristic algorithms. The value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used as the economic risk analysis tool with two different confidence levels (i.e., 95% and 99%). The VaR and CVaR with higher negative values represent the system in a higher-risk condition. The value of VaR and CVaR on the lower negative side or towards a positive value side indicates a less risky system. The main objective of this work is to minimize the system risk as well as minimize the system generation cost by optimal placement of wind farm and pumped hydro storage systems in the power system. Sequential quadratic programming (SQP), artificial bee colony algorithms (ABC), and moth flame optimization algorithms (MFO) are used to solve optimal power flow problems. The novelty of this paper is that the MFO algorithm is used for the first time in this type of power risk curtailment problem. The IEEE 30 bus system is considered to analyze the system risk with the different confidence levels. The MVA flow of all transmission lines is considered here to calculate the value of VaR and CVaR. The hourly VaR and CVaR values of the hybrid system considering the WPHS system are reported here and the numerical case studies of the hybrid WPHS system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. To validate the presented approach, the results obtained by using the MFO algorithm are compared with the SQP and ABC algorithms’ results.


Author(s):  
Xin Tao ◽  
Jonas Mårtensson ◽  
Håkan Warnquist ◽  
Anna Pernestål

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aishwarya Mishra ◽  
Sanjay Kumar Palei ◽  
Netai Chandra Karmakar ◽  
Mrutyunjaya Mishra

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0260061
Author(s):  
Kevin da Silva Castanheira ◽  
Madeleine Sharp ◽  
A. Ross Otto

Here, we sought to quantify the effects of experienced fear and worry, engendered by the COVID-19 pandemic, on both cognitive abilities—speed of information processing, task-set shifting, and proactive control—as well as economic risk-taking. Leveraging a repeated-measures cross-sectional design, we examined the performance of 1517 participants, collected during the early phase of the pandemic in the US (April–June 2020), finding that self-reported pandemic-related worry predicted deficits in information processing speed and maintenance of goal-related contextual information. In a classic economic risk-taking task, we observed that worried individuals’ choices were more sensitive to the described outcome probabilities of risky actions. Overall, these results elucidate the cognitive consequences of a large-scale, unpredictable, and uncontrollable stressor, which may in turn play an important role in individuals’ understanding of, and adherence to safety directives both in the current crisis and future public health emergencies.


Risk Analysis ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Mamudu ◽  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Sohrab Zendehboudi ◽  
Sunday Adedigba

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Consolata Jepkemei Chesang ◽  
Samuel M Mwangi ◽  
Parvin Moloo

Until the emergence of policies and legal frameworks to address domestic violence -including intimate partner and child abuse- in the last decades of the 20th century, abuse of the older people had persisted as a private matter that was accorded little public attention. Even so, intra-familial elder abuse (IFEA) has been acknowledged globally as a pervasive problem, associated with overwhelming distinct consequences, outcomes, and societal expenses. With an overall increase in the older persons’ populace, IFEA is expected to become a more pressing issue, affecting masses of older individuals globally. Kenya is experiencing population aging at a high rate, which implies that, with it, elder abuse, and particularly IFEA is anticipated to become a more pressing problem, distressing millions of older individuals countrywide. IFEA refers to as a type of family violence has been defined as a sole or repeated mistreatment and/or abusive action, which can be an act of commission or omission, intentional and unintentional, towards older persons within the family context. The definition, conceptualization, and perceptions of intra-familial elder abuse vary across societies and culture, because, what may be deemed abusive in one society might not be the case in another, thus making the whole issue of elder abuse and particularly IFEA dynamic, with variations across boundaries, religions, economic, and social settings. This study sought to explore the socio-economic dynamics of IFEA in Baringo County. The study objectives were to profile the dominant types of IFEA, to examine the dynamics of IFEA in relation to the associated socio-economic risk factors, and to assess the dynamics associated with reporting and disclosure of IFEA, guided by Homan’s Social Exchange theory. The study embraced a cross-sectional analytical survey design to collect both qualitative and quantitative data. The study was conducted in Baringo County. The respondents of the study were older persons in the area who were aged 70 years and older; 226 older persons from two purposively sampled sub counties were sampled for the study. The study also targeted key informants including local authorities, health care authorities, adult protection agency representatives and law enforcement. Semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews, and focus group discussion guides were used in data collection. Quantitative data was analyzed using the SPSS 21.0 to generate both descriptive and inferential statistics such as chi-square tests. Qualitative data was analyzed thematically. The study established that most prevalent form of intra-familial abuse reported in the study was psychological abuse (79.2%) while sexual abuse was the least (19.9%) prevalent type of IFEA. The study found out that gender of the victim, victim dependence and vulnerability, living arrangements, trust relationships, social isolation and financial dependency on the older person influenced the older persons’ experiences with the different types of abuse reported in the study. Based on the reported dynamics of IFEA in relation to reporting, the study concluded that given the right platforms, older persons are more likely to report incidences of abuse. The study concludes that IFEA is a dynamic social problem, which varies across cultural contexts, perceptions, socio-economic risk factors, as well as in its reporting and disclosure. The study recommends education, sensitization, and public awareness campaigns at the community level as preventive strategies aimed at informing members of the society about IFEA, what it constitutes, and how it can be addressed.


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