Analysis of the Schedule Risk of Prefabricated Buildings Based on ISM and Research of Transfer Path

Project schedule management is an important part of prefabricated construction project management. General contracting is an effective way to promote the development of prefabricated construction. However, at present, from the perspective of general contracting, the risk factors affecting the project progress of prefabricated buildings are not clear, and the relationship between risks is not known. The purpose of this study is to study the composition, hierarchical structure and transmission path of schedule risk factors of prefabricated construction in general contracting mode, so as to help the general contractor formulate effective schedule risk avoidance measures. This study uses grounded theory to obtain 22 risk factors that affect the progress of assembly building projects, and the data are from expert interviews. Using Delphi method and interpretative structural modeling (ISM), these factors are divided into seven levels, and the ISM model of schedule risk factors is constructed. The research shows that there are 60 progress risk transmission paths, and four progress risk transfer chains are obtained. This paper also further analyzes and puts forward suggestions to avoid risks for each level. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-01-010 Full Text: PDF

Construction Schedule Risk Assessment and Management Strategy for Foreign General Contractors Working in the Ethiopian Construction Industry

Construction project schedule delay is a worldwide concern and especially severe in the Ethiopian construction industry. This study developed a Construction Schedule Risk Assessment Model (CSRAM) and a management strategy for foreign general contractors (FGCs). 94 construction projects with schedule delay were collected and a questionnaire survey of 75 domain experts was conducted to systematically select 22 risk factors. In CSRAM, the artificial neural network (ANN) inference model was developed to predict the project schedule delay. Integrating it with the Garson algorithm (GA), the relative weights of risk factors with rankings were calculated and identified. For comparison, the Relative Importance Index (RII) method was also applied to rank the risk factors. Management strategies were developed to improve the three highest-ranked factors identified using the GA (change order, corruption/bribery, and delay in payment), and the RII (poor resource management, corruption/bribery, and delay in material delivery). Moreover, the improvement results were used as inputs for the trained ANN to conduct a sensitivity analysis. The findings of this study indicate that improvements in the factors that considerably affect the construction schedule can significantly reduce construction schedule delays. This study acts as an important reference for FGCs who plan to enter or work in the Ethiopian construction industry.

RISIKO TERHADAP KINERJA, BIAYA DAN WAKTU PROYEK RISKS TO PROJECT PERFORMANCE, COST AND TIME

Project risk is an uncertain event or condition in the future, and if it occurs it will have a positive or negative impact on the achievement of project goals / objectives, including scope, schedule, cost and quality. One of the main causes of project failure is poor project risk management. There have been many studies that state that project risk management is an important factor in the success of a project. In previous studies, many results indicate that risk management must be carried out for every construction project in order to avoid losses on cost, quality and project completion schedule. Risk management planning is the first step and determines the direction of a series of other risk management activities. This process determines how to approach and plan activities in risk management will be carried out in the projectKeywords: project risk, risk management, construction project(Risiko proyek adalah suatu peristiwa yang tidak pasti atau kondisi di masa depan, dan jika terjadi maka akan berdampak positif atau negatif terhadap pencapaian tujuan/sasaran proyek, termasuk ruang lingkup, jadwal, biaya dan kualitas. Salah satu penyebab utama kegagalan suatu proyek adalah buruknya manajemen risiko proyek. Sudah banyak penelitian yang menyatakan bahwa manajemen risiko proyek merupakan salah satu faktor penting kesuksesan suatu proyek. Pada penelitian sebelumnya banyak hasil yang menunjukkan bahwa manajemen risiko harus dilakukan bagi setiap proyek konstruksi agar dapat menghindari kerugian atas biaya, mutu dan jadwal penyelesaian proyek. Perencanaan manajemen risiko merupakan langkah pertama dan yang menentukan arah dari rangkaian kegiatan manajemen risiko lainnya. Proses ini menentukan bagaimana pendekatan dan perencanaan kegiatan-kegiatan dalam manajemen risiko akan dilakukan di dalam proyekKata Kunci: Risiko proyek, manajemen resiko, proyek konstruksi)

Integrating Schedule Risk Analysis with Multi-Skilled Resource Scheduling to Improve Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problems

Construction projects are planned in a complex and dynamic environment characterized by high risks and uncertainties amidst resource constraints. Assessing construction schedule risk facilitates informed decision-making, especially in a resource-constrained situation, and allows proactive actions to be taken so that project objectives are not jeopardized. This study presents a stochastic multiskilled resource scheduling (SMSRS) model for resource-constrained project scheduling problems (RCSPSP) considering the impact of risk and uncertainty on activity durations. The SMSRS model was developed by integrating a schedule risk analysis (SRA) model (developed in MS Excel) with an existing multiskilled resource scheduling (MSRS) algorithm for the development of a feasible and realistic schedule. The computational experiment carried out on three case projects using the proposed SMSRS model revealed an average percentage deviation of 10.50%, indicating the inherent risk and uncertainty in activity durations of the project schedule. The core contribution of the proposed SMSRS model is that it: (1) presents project practitioners with a simple tool for assessing the risks and uncertainty associated with resource-constrained project schedules so that necessary response actions can be taken to ensure project success; (2) provides the small-scale construction businesses with an affordable tool for evaluating schedule risk and developing a feasible and realistic project schedule.