The EUR/CNY exchange rate forecast based on GARCH model

Author(s):  
Huaijin Gao ◽  
Jianan Sun
2013 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-177
Author(s):  
Edward Sandoyan ◽  
David Manukyan

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03018
Author(s):  
Xuhang Zhao

Based on the daily data of Shibor and nominal exchange rate from 2006 to 2019, this paper constructs VAR model and uses Granger causality test and impulse response model to analyze the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and interest rate. Based on the DCC-GARCH model, this paper analyzes the correlation between exchange rate volatility and interest rate volatility, and concludes that there is a weak negative correlation between exchange rate and interest rate. Both exchange rate and monetary policy will have an important impact on China’s economic environment, so it is of great practical significance to study the joint impact of exchange rate and monetary policy.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Dipanwita Barai ◽  
◽  
Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. ◽  
Adam G. Walke ◽  
◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Charles Kwofie ◽  
Isaac Akoto ◽  
Kwaku Opoku-Ameyaw

In this paper, we propose a copula approach in measuring the dependency between inflation and exchange rate. In unveiling this dependency, we first estimated the best GARCH model for the two variables. Then, we derived the marginal distributions of the standardised residuals from the GARCH. The Laplace and generalised t distributions best modelled the residuals of the GARCH(1,1) models, respectively, for inflation and exchange rate. These marginals were then used to transform the standardised residuals into uniform random variables on a unit interval [0, 1] for estimating the copulas. Our results show that the dependency between inflation and exchange rate in Ghana is approximately 7%.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 356-366
Author(s):  
Geetha E ◽  
Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar ◽  
Vidya Bai G ◽  
Suhan Mendon ◽  
Rajesha Thekkekutt Mathukutti

Investors invest in a foreign market to reap the benefits of currency differences. The change in the value of underlying assets affects these hedged funds and, at the same time, restricts investors from higher return possible in unhedged funds. This study aims to examine the performance of most actively traded shares in Exchange Traded Fund and any influence, along with tracking the information from the index. This study also analyzes the currency fluctuation and its impact on returns and volatility of ETF and index. The equity ETF, which tracks NASDAQ (NDX 100), is chosen for the study, and the data analysis is carried out using statistical methods such as correlation, regression, and GARCH model. The study utilizes the currency rate data from 2013 to 2018 of USD, GBP, and INR and examines its effect on the NDX (NASDAQ). The study emphasizes whether the ETF as a basket of securities is insensitive to currency rate fluctuations. It is found that the response of ETF to the currency movements is likely due to its underlying index. The study concludes that Motilal Oswal shares in NASDAQ 100 ETF are highly sensitive to the NDX 100 movements; thus, there is no direct impact between ETF and index performance through exchange rate fluctuation.


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