scholarly journals Modelling the Dependency between Inflation and Exchange Rate Using Copula

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Charles Kwofie ◽  
Isaac Akoto ◽  
Kwaku Opoku-Ameyaw
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Unit Interval ◽  
Marginal Distributions ◽  
Copula Approach

In this paper, we propose a copula approach in measuring the dependency between inflation and exchange rate. In unveiling this dependency, we first estimated the best GARCH model for the two variables. Then, we derived the marginal distributions of the standardised residuals from the GARCH. The Laplace and generalised t distributions best modelled the residuals of the GARCH(1,1) models, respectively, for inflation and exchange rate. These marginals were then used to transform the standardised residuals into uniform random variables on a unit interval [0, 1] for estimating the copulas. Our results show that the dependency between inflation and exchange rate in Ghana is approximately 7%.

scholarly journals Dynamic Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Based on VAR-DCC-GARCH Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03018
Author(s):  
Xuhang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility

Based on the daily data of Shibor and nominal exchange rate from 2006 to 2019, this paper constructs VAR model and uses Granger causality test and impulse response model to analyze the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and interest rate. Based on the DCC-GARCH model, this paper analyzes the correlation between exchange rate volatility and interest rate volatility, and concludes that there is a weak negative correlation between exchange rate and interest rate. Both exchange rate and monetary policy will have an important impact on China’s economic environment, so it is of great practical significance to study the joint impact of exchange rate and monetary policy.

Dependent Random Variables with Independent Subsets - II

1990 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. H. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Marginal Distributions ◽  
Dependent Random Variables ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
The One

AbstractIn this paper, we consolidate into one two separate problems - dependent random variables with independent subsets and construction of a joint distribution with given marginals. Let N = {1,2,3,...} and X = {Xn; n ∊ N} be a sequence of random variables with nondegenerate one-dimensional marginal distributions {Fn; n ∊ N}. An example is constructed to show that there exists a sequence of random variables Y = {Yn; n ∊ N} such that the components of a subset of Y are independent if and only if its size is ≦ k, where k ≧ 2 is a prefixed integer. Furthermore, the one-dimensional marginal distributions of Y are those of X.

scholarly journals Estimating Differential Entropy using Recursive Copula Splitting

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gil Ariel ◽  
Yoram Louzoun
Keyword(s):  
Compact Support ◽  
Mixed Type ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Differential Entropy ◽  
High Dimensions ◽  
Marginal Distributions ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Different Dimensions

A method for estimating the Shannon differential entropy of multidimensional random variables using independent samples is described. The method is based on decomposing the distribution into a product of marginal distributions and joint dependency, also known as the copula. The entropy of marginals is estimated using one-dimensional methods. The entropy of the copula, which always has a compact support, is estimated recursively by splitting the data along statistically dependent dimensions. The method can be applied both for distributions with compact and non-compact supports, which is imperative when the support is not known or of a mixed type (in different dimensions). At high dimensions (larger than 20), numerical examples demonstrate that our method is not only more accurate, but also significantly more efficient than existing approaches.

Bounding the stochastic performance of continuum structure functions. II

1987 ◽  
Vol 24 (03) ◽  
pp. 609-618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence A. Baxter ◽  
Chul Kim
Keyword(s):  
Structure Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Structure Functions ◽  
Unit Interval ◽  
Modular Decomposition ◽  
Associated Random Variables ◽  
Unit Hypercube ◽  
Continuum Structure

A continuum structure function γ is a non-decreasing mapping from the unit hypercube to the unit interval. Block and Savits (1984) use the sets and to determine bounds on the distribution of γ (X) when X is a vector of associated random variables. It is shown that, if γ admits of a modular decomposition, improved bounds may be obtained.

Sharp Bounds for Sums of Dependent Risks

2013 ◽  
Vol 50 (01) ◽  
pp. 42-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Puccetti ◽  
Ludger Rüschendorf
Keyword(s):  
Random Variables ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Homogeneous Case ◽  
Marginal Distributions ◽  
Sharp Bounds ◽  
Duality Result ◽  
Dependent Risks ◽  
Monotone Densities ◽  
Monotone Density ◽  
Dual Bounds

Sharp tail bounds for the sum of d random variables with given marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure have been known since Makarov (1981) and Rüschendorf (1982) for d=2 and, in some examples, for d≥3. Based on a duality result, dual bounds have been introduced in Embrechts and Puccetti (2006b). In the homogeneous case, F 1=···=F n , with monotone density, sharp tail bounds were recently found in Wang and Wang (2011). In this paper we establish the sharpness of the dual bounds in the homogeneous case under general conditions which include, in particular, the case of monotone densities and concave densities. We derive the corresponding optimal couplings and also give an effective method to calculate the sharp bounds.

scholarly journals Are global Exchange Traded Fund pretentious on exchange rate fluctuation? A study using GARCH model

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 356-366
Author(s):  
Geetha E ◽  
Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar ◽  
Vidya Bai G ◽  
Suhan Mendon ◽  
Rajesha Thekkekutt Mathukutti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Foreign Market ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Global Exchange ◽  
Exchange Traded Fund

Investors invest in a foreign market to reap the benefits of currency differences. The change in the value of underlying assets affects these hedged funds and, at the same time, restricts investors from higher return possible in unhedged funds. This study aims to examine the performance of most actively traded shares in Exchange Traded Fund and any influence, along with tracking the information from the index. This study also analyzes the currency fluctuation and its impact on returns and volatility of ETF and index. The equity ETF, which tracks NASDAQ (NDX 100), is chosen for the study, and the data analysis is carried out using statistical methods such as correlation, regression, and GARCH model. The study utilizes the currency rate data from 2013 to 2018 of USD, GBP, and INR and examines its effect on the NDX (NASDAQ). The study emphasizes whether the ETF as a basket of securities is insensitive to currency rate fluctuations. It is found that the response of ETF to the currency movements is likely due to its underlying index. The study concludes that Motilal Oswal shares in NASDAQ 100 ETF are highly sensitive to the NDX 100 movements; thus, there is no direct impact between ETF and index performance through exchange rate fluctuation.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP KINERJA EKSPOR UTAMA PERTANIAN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-186
Author(s):  
Eka Dewi Satriana ◽  
Harianto ◽  
Dominicus Savio Priyarsono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Trading Partner ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Agricultural Exports

Abstrak Nilai tukar merupakan salah satu aspek yang memengaruhi daya saing ekspor. Pada tahun 2013 hingga tahun 2015, volatilitas nilai tukar mengalami kenaikan, khususnya pada triwulan akhir tahun 2015 yaitu sebesar 16,90%. Kondisi ekspor utama pertanian Indonesia pada tahun tersebut rata-rata mengalami penurunan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh volatilitas nilai tukar terhadap kinerja ekspor utama pertanian Indonesia ke negara mitra dagang utama dengan menggunakan gravity model. Ekspor utama pertanian yang dianalisis yaitu karet alam, kopi, udang, dan Crude Palm Oil (CPO). Model ARCH-GARCH digunakan untuk mengukur volatilitas nilai tukar. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif terhadap ekspor karet alam, kopi, dan udang Indonesia. Artinya, semakin fluktuatif nilai tukar rupiah maka akan menurunkan ekspor karet alam, kopi, dan udang Indonesia ke negara mitra dagang utama. Pengaruh negatif tersebut juga menunjukkan adanya penghindaran risiko yang dilakukan oleh pelaku usaha. Beberapa rekomendasi hasil kajian yang dapat dilakukan Pemerintah Indonesia adalah menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, kemudahan akses ke lembaga keuangan, penerapan lindung nilai (hedging), kontrak jangka panjang (longterm contracts), dan menjaga pertumbuhan produksi komoditas. Kata Kunci: Volatilitas Nilai Tukar, Ekspor Utama Pertanian, Model ARCH-GARCH   Abstract The exchange rate is one aspect that affects export competitiveness. From 2013 to 2015, exchange rate volatility increased, especially in the final quarter of 2015, which was 16.90%. Indonesia's main agricultural export conditions in the year on average experienced a decline. This paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate volatility on the performance of Indonesia's main agricultural exports to major trading partner countries using the gravity model. The main agricultural exports analyzed were natural rubber, coffee, shrimp, and Crude Palm Oil (CPO). The ARCH-GARCH model is used to measure exchange rate volatility. The analysis shows that exchange rate volatility harms on Indonesia's exports of natural rubber, coffee, and shrimp. This means, the more the rupiah exchange rate fluctuates will reduce Indonesia's natural rubber, coffee and shrimp exports to the main trading partner countries. The negative influence also indicates the existence of risk aversion by business actors. Some recommendations for the Government of Indonesia based on the study findings are maintaining exchange rate stability, easy access to financial institutions, implementing hedging, long-term contracts, and maintaining commodity production growth. Keywords: Exchange Rate Volatility, Main Agricultural Exports, ARCH-GARCH Model JEL Classification: F14, F31, F41, Q17

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