A Novel combined forecasting method for short-term distributed electric heating power load

Author(s):  
Haiyang Chen ◽  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Baoqun Zhang ◽  
Yifeng Ding ◽  
Qinfei Sun ◽  
...  
2014 ◽  
Vol 494-495 ◽  
pp. 1647-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling Juan Li ◽  
Wen Huang

Short-term power load forecasting is very important for the electric power market, and the forecasting method should have high accuracy and high speed. A three-layer BP neural network has the ability to approximate any N-dimensional continuous function with arbitrary precision. In this paper, a short-term power load forecasting method based on BP neural network is proposed. This method uses the three-layer neural network with single hidden layer as forecast model. In order to improve the training speed of BP neural network and the forecasting efficiency, this method firstly reduces the factors which affect load forecasting by using rough set theory, then takes the reduced data as input variables of the BP neural network model, and gets the forecast value by using back-propagation algorithm. The forecasting results with real data show that the proposed method has high accuracy and low complexity in short-term power load forecasting.


2011 ◽  
Vol 127 ◽  
pp. 569-574
Author(s):  
Dong Liang Li ◽  
Xiao Feng Zhang ◽  
Ming Zhong Qiao ◽  
Gang Cheng

The power load characteristics of warship on a specific task was analyzed,and a task-based forecasting method for warship short-term load forecasting was presented. the new influencing factors of warship power load were used in modeling which is different with the land grid and civilian vessels grid. Theory of particle swarm optimization and Support vector machine was disscused first, and the method of particle swarm optimization was improved to have the ability of adaptive parameter optimization. and the method of support vector machine was improved by the adaptive PSO optimizational method. then a new adaptive short-term load forecasting model was established by the adaptive PSO-SVM method. finally Through simulation results show that the adaptive PSO-SVM method is highly feasible to predict with high accuracy and high generalization capability.


2014 ◽  
Vol 538 ◽  
pp. 247-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hou Bin ◽  
Yun Xiao Zu ◽  
Chao Zhang

Described the meaning of the Short-Term Power forecasting firstly, then gives summary of the basic principles and steps of the power load forecasting, analyses the disadvantages of traditional forecasting methods, and proposing the load analysis plan base on BP neural network theory. Taking full account of the relationship between the daily load and weather factors, establishes a short-term load forecasting model. Results of the prediction are verified highly precise and stable, which makes it suitable for different forecasting conditions.


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