Stock Price Prediction: A Comparative Study between Traditional Statistical Approach and Machine Learning Approach

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted, on the other hand, there are propositions illustrating that, if appropriately modelled, stock prices can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. There is also a gamut of literature on technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and profit from it. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, over a period of four years: 2015 – 2018. Based on the NIFTY data during 2015 – 2018, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the “Close” value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week, i.e., five days. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual “Close” values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

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Machine-learning and statistical methods for DDoS attack detection and defense system in software defined networks

10.32920/ryerson.14657556 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Merlin James Rukshan Dennis

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Random Forest ◽

Statistical Approach ◽

Denial Of Service ◽

Attack Detection ◽

Learning Approach ◽

Ddos Attack ◽

Machine Learning Approach ◽

Ddos Detection ◽

Ddos Attack Detection

Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is a serious threat on today’s Internet. As the traffic across the Internet increases day by day, it is a challenge to distinguish between legitimate and malicious traffic. This thesis proposes two different approaches to build an efficient DDoS attack detection system in the Software Defined Networking environment. SDN is the latest networking approach which implements centralized controller, which is programmable. The central control and the programming capability of the controller are used in this thesis to implement the detection and mitigation mechanisms. In this thesis, two designed approaches, statistical approach and machine-learning approach, are proposed for the DDoS detection. The statistical approach implements entropy computation and flow statistics analysis. It uses the mean and standard deviation of destination entropy, new flow arrival rate, packets per flow and flow duration to compute various thresholds. These thresholds are then used to distinguish normal and attack traffic. The machine learning approach uses Random Forest classifier to detect the DDoS attack. We fine-tune the Random Forest algorithm to make it more accurate in DDoS detection. In particular, we introduce the weighted voting instead of the standard majority voting to improve the accuracy. Our result shows that the proposed machine-learning approach outperforms the statistical approach. Furthermore, it also outperforms other machine-learning approach found in the literature.

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