ABSTRACT
The oil spill trajectory prediction for the barge Buffalo 292 spill was provided by NOAA and TGLO. The bulk of the 5000 barrels of IFO 380 that was leaked moved rapidly through the Galveston Channel entrance and into the Gulf of Mexico as a result of a strong meteorological event. Because of the nature of the product, it was possible to track the resulting slicks for more than 3 weeks. Initially, the oil trailed east away from shore. Changing winds and currents moved the oil south and west, leading to sporadic impacts along the shore from east of Galveston to south of Corpus Christi. Trajectory forecasts were used to alert response personnel of impending beach impacts and to direct offshore skimming operations.
Real-time current and wind meters, oil-tracking drifters, visual overflights, and remote-sensing observations provided an unusual amount of calibrating data for trajectory forecasting. This fact, along with detailed analysis assisted by computer models, allowed for a surprisingly high degree of accuracy in trajectory prediction in spite of complex current and wind patterns and changing wind drift factors for the product as it weathered. In this paper, these favorable results are compared with results of an earlier spill in the region where fewer resources were available for trajectory analysis.