The Online Forecasting Research of Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Generation at Wind Farm Based on Phase Space Reconstruction

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Yajun ◽  
Liu Jing
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Phase Space ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Phase Space Reconstruction ◽  
Short Term

The Forecasting of Short-Term Wind Speed on Wind Farm Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Neural Network

2012 ◽  
Vol 246-247 ◽  
pp. 496-500
Author(s):  
Ying Ying Su ◽  
Fei Ma ◽  
Hai Yan Zhang ◽  
Zhi Qiang Liao ◽  
Peng Jun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Phase Space ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Phase Space Reconstruction ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
The Mean

The forecasting precision of short-term wind speed is not high for its chaos and time-varying. Aimed at the problem, the novel data space is reconstructed with the best embedding dimension and time delay according to the phase space reconstruction. On the basis, neural network (NN) is used as the modeling tool with the novel sample data. Meanwhile, the structure of NN is confirmed compared with the others on the precision. In the end, the model of short-term wind speed is able to be obtained. The results show that the method is available and the Mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased to 16.2% for 2 hours.

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting by Using Chaotic Theory and SVM

2013 ◽  
Vol 300-301 ◽  
pp. 842-847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cai Hong Zhu ◽  
Ling Ling Li ◽  
Jun Hao Li ◽  
Jian Sen Gao
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Phase Space Reconstruction ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Particle Swarm Algorithm ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecast

The wind speed forecast is the basis of the wind power forecast. The wind speed has the characteristics of random non-smooth so obviously that its precise forecast is extremely difficult. Therefore, a forecasting method based on the theory of chaotic phase-space reconstruction and SVM was put forward in this paper and a forecasting model of Chaotic Support Vector Machine was built. In order to improve the precision and generalization ability, the key parameters in the phase space reconstruction and the key parameters of SVM were carried out joint optimization by using particle swarm algorithm in the paper. Then the optimal parameters were brought into the forecasting model to forecast short-term wind speed. The above method was applied to wind speed forecast of a wind farm in Inner Mongolia, China. In the experiments of computer simulation, the absolute percentage error of forecasting results was only 12.51%, which showed this method was effective for short-term wind speed forecast.

Improving short-term wind power forecasts during ramp events by including nacelle wind speed observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz Lochmann ◽  
Heike Kalesse-Los ◽  
Michael Schäfer ◽  
Ingrid Heinrich ◽  
Ronny Leinweber
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Mean Deviation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Sonic Anemometers ◽  
Ramp Events

<p>Wind energy is and will be one of the key technologies for a transition to green electricity. However, the smooth integration of the generated wind energy into the electrical grid depends on reliable power forecasts. Rapid changes in power generation, so-called ramps, are not always reflected properly in NWP data and pose a challenge for power predictions and, therefore, grid operation. While contributions to the topic of ramp forecasting increased in the recent years, this work approaches the mitigation of deviations from the forecast more directly.</p> <p>The power forecast tool used here is based on an artificial neural network, trained and evaluated on multiple years of data. It is applied in comparison to power generation data for a 44 MW wind farm in Brandenburg. For short-term wind power forecasts, NWP wind speeds in this power forecast tool are replaced with recent Doppler Lidar wind profiles and nacelle wind speed observations from ultra-sonic anemometers, aiming to provide an easy-to-implement way to reduce negative impacts of ramps. Compared to NWP input data, this persistence approach with observational data aims to improve the forecast quality especially during the time of wind ramps.</p> <p>Different ramp definitions and forecast horizons are explored. In general, the number of ramps detected increases dramatically when using wind speed observations instead of the (too smooth) NWP model data. In addition, the mean deviation between power forecast and actual power generation around ramp events decreases, indicating a reduced need for balancing efforts.</p>

Ultra-Short-Term Forecasting Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Wind Power Wind

2015 ◽  
Vol 713-715 ◽  
pp. 1444-1447
Author(s):  
De Yin Du ◽  
Bao Fan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Turbine Output

The amount of random variation of wind speed, wind turbine output power are volatile, a lot of wind power will be on the safe and stable operation of power systems and power quality pose serious challenges, so the wind farm wind speed and power generation forecast scheduling and management of wind farms play an important role. According wind with chaotic discuss the use of phase space CC method to reconstruct the chaotic time series, and the phase space of a wind farm 10 units were reconstructed using the weighted first order local prediction model to obtain short-term within 1h wind forecast values obtained using the power curve conversion method of generating power for each unit. By examples show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.

scholarly journals Analysis of Wind Turbine Aging through Operation Data Calibrated by LiDAR Measurement

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2319
Author(s):  
Hyun-Goo Kim ◽  
Jin-Young Kim
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Free Stream ◽  
Turbine Blades ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Lidar Measurement ◽  
Wind Turbine Blades ◽  
Wake Effect

This study analyzed the performance decline of wind turbine with age using the SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) data and the short-term in situ LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) measurements taken at the Shinan wind farm located on the coast of Bigeumdo Island in the southwestern sea of South Korea. Existing methods have generally attempted to estimate performance aging through long-term trend analysis of a normalized capacity factor in which wind speed variability is calibrated. However, this study proposes a new method using SCADA data for wind farms whose total operation period is short (less than a decade). That is, the trend of power output deficit between predicted and actual power generation was analyzed in order to estimate performance aging, wherein a theoretically predicted level of power generation was calculated by substituting a free stream wind speed projecting to a wind turbine into its power curve. To calibrate a distorted wind speed measurement in a nacelle anemometer caused by the wake effect resulting from the rotation of wind-turbine blades and the shape of the nacelle, the free stream wind speed was measured using LiDAR remote sensing as the reference data; and the nacelle transfer function, which converts nacelle wind speed into free stream wind speed, was derived. A four-year analysis of the Shinan wind farm showed that the rate of performance aging of the wind turbines was estimated to be −0.52%p/year.

Wind Power Short-Term Forcasting of BP Neural Network Based on the Small-World Optimization

2014 ◽  
Vol 933 ◽  
pp. 384-389
Author(s):  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Shuang Xin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Small World ◽  
Power Method ◽  
Short Term

Wind power short-term forcasting of BP neural network based on the small-world optimization is proposed. First, the initial data collected from wind farm are revised, and the unreasonable data are found out and revised. Second, the small-world optimization BP neural network model is proposed, and the model is used on the prediction method of wind speed and wind direction, and the prediction method of power. Finally, by simulation analysis, the NMAE and NRMSE of the power method are smaller than those of the wind speed and wind direction method when the wind power data of one hour later are predicted. When the power method are used to forecast the data one hour later, NMAE is 5.39% and NRMSE is 6.98%.

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