In this paper, we propose a two-step data-analytic approach to the promotion planning for mobile applications (apps). In the first step, we use historical sales data to estimate the app demand model and quantify the effect of price promotions on download volume. The estimation results reveal two interesting characteristics of the relationship between price promotion and download volume of mobile apps: (1) the magnitude of the direct immediate promotion effect is declining within a multiday promotion; and (2) due to the visibility effect (i.e., apps ranked high on the download chart are more visible to consumers), a price promotion also has an indirect effect on download volume by affecting app rank, and this effect can persist after the promotion ends. Based on the empirically estimated demand model, we propose a moving planning window heuristic to construct a promotion policy. Our heuristic promotion policy consists of shorter and more frequent promotions. We show that the proposed policy can increase the app lifetime revenue by around 10%.
District energy system optimisation under uncertain demand: Handling data-driven stochastic profiles
