Market Efficiency and Return Statistics: Evidence from Real Estate and Stock Markets Using a Present-Value Approach

2001 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuming Fu ◽  
Lilian K. Ng
1988 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard H Thaler ◽  
William T Ziemba

Economists have given great attention to stock markets in their efforts to test the concepts of market efficiency and rationality. Yet wagering markets are, in one key respect, better suited for testing market efficiency and rationality. The advantage of wagering markets is that each asset (bet) has a well-defined termination point at which its value becomes certain. The absence of this property is one of the factors that has made it so difficult to test for rationality in the stock market. Since a stock is infinitely lived, its value today depends both on the present value of future cash flows and on the price someone will pay for the security tomorrow. Indeed, one can argue that wagering markets have a better chance of being efficient because the conditions (quick, repeated feedback) are those which usually facilitate learning. However, empirical research has uncovered several interesting anomalies. While there are numerous types of wagering markets, legal and otherwise, this column will concentrate on racetrack betting and lotto-type lottery games.


2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 309-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changjiang Lu ◽  
Kemin Wang ◽  
Haiwei Chen ◽  
James Chong

We investigate the effectiveness of two recent regulatory policy changes on market efficiency in the Chinese A- and B-share markets. Overall, the opening of the B-share market to domestic Chinese investors and the limited opening of the A-share market to foreign investors increase market efficiency. The opening of the B-share market significantly reduces the price differential between A- and B-shares. Furthermore, there is no longer feedback in returns between the two markets in recent years. Our results provide evidence that there is no detrimental effect to market efficiency by integrating Chinese investors to international markets and foreign investors to the Chinese stock markets.


2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 69-80
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Numapau Gyamfi ◽  
Kwabena A. Kyei ◽  
Ryan Gill

Author(s):  
Elizabeth M. Holt

Yaʿqūb Ṣarrūf’s first foray in the novel genre, Fatāt Miṣr (The Girl of Egypt) was serialized as a literary supplement to Al-Muqtaṭaf over the course of 1905. A tale of finance capital’s restless wandering in Egyptian cotton fields, Cairo apartment buildings, Japanese war bonds, and the stock markets of the world -- from London, to St. Petersburg, Tokyo and back to Cairo --, Fatāt Miṣr met with critical praise upon its initial publication. Soon forgotten, the novel has been left unread by Arabic literary critics, despite the prescient augury it held for how a culture of speculation in Arabic would culminate in Egypt less than two years later in the stock and real estate crash of 1907. Indeed, the plot of Fatāt Miṣr owes much to Ṣarrūf’s own personal financial speculation in Egyptian land.


Author(s):  
Nathan Lael Joseph ◽  
Khelifa Mazouz

In this paper, the authors examine the impacts of large price changes (or shocks) on the abnormal returns (ARs) of a set of 39 national stock indices. Their initial results support returns continuations for both positive and negative shocks in line with prior results. After controlling for market size, their findings provide support for over-reaction, return continuations and market efficiency, but these result depend on the magnitude of the price shocks. Whilst the market is efficient when the positive shocks are large, the market also over-reacts when negative shocks are large. To illustrate, for large stock markets that are more liquid, positive shocks of more than 5% generate an insignificant day one CAR of -0.004%, whilst negative shocks of more than 5% generate a positive and significant day one CAR of 0.662%. In contrast, positive (negative) shocks of less than 5% generate a significant one day CAR of 0.119% (-0.174%) for these same (large) stock markets.


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