Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries

1988 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard H Thaler ◽  
William T Ziemba
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Future Cash Flows ◽  
Termination Point ◽  
Parimutuel Betting

Economists have given great attention to stock markets in their efforts to test the concepts of market efficiency and rationality. Yet wagering markets are, in one key respect, better suited for testing market efficiency and rationality. The advantage of wagering markets is that each asset (bet) has a well-defined termination point at which its value becomes certain. The absence of this property is one of the factors that has made it so difficult to test for rationality in the stock market. Since a stock is infinitely lived, its value today depends both on the present value of future cash flows and on the price someone will pay for the security tomorrow. Indeed, one can argue that wagering markets have a better chance of being efficient because the conditions (quick, repeated feedback) are those which usually facilitate learning. However, empirical research has uncovered several interesting anomalies. While there are numerous types of wagering markets, legal and otherwise, this column will concentrate on racetrack betting and lotto-type lottery games.

Do the Stock Market Indices Follow a Random Walk?

2021 ◽  
pp. 389-410
Author(s):  
Cristina Vasco ◽  
Pedro Pardal ◽  
Rui Teixeira Dias
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Efficiency Hypothesis

This chapter aims to test the hypothesis of an efficient market, in its weak form, in the stock markets of Brazil, China, South Korea, USA, Spain, Italy, in the period from December 2, 2020 to May 12, 2020. The results show that the market efficiency hypothesis is rejected in all markets. In corroboration the DFA exponents show long memories, which put in question the market efficiency, in its weak form, suggesting that the stock markets analyzed show some predictability. In conclusion, investors should avoid investing in stock markets, at least while this pandemic lasts, and invest in less risky markets in order to mitigate risk and improve the efficiency of their portfolios.

scholarly journals Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm Baker ◽  
Jeffrey Wurgler
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Investor sentiment, defined broadly, is a belief about future cash flows and investment risks that is not justified by the facts at hand. The question is no longer whether investor sentiment affects stock prices, but how to measure investor sentiment and quantify its effects. One approach is “bottom up,” using biases in individual investor psychology, such as overconfidence, representativeness, and conservatism, to explain how individual investors underreact or overreact to past returns or fundamentals The investor sentiment approach that we develop in this paper is, by contrast, distinctly “top down” and macroeconomic: we take the origin of investor sentiment as exogenous and focus on its empirical effects. We show that it is quite possible to measure investor sentiment and that waves of sentiment have clearly discernible, important, and regular effects on individual firms and on the stock market as a whole. The top-down approach builds on the two broader and more irrefutable assumptions of behavioral finance—sentiment and the limits to arbitrage—to explain which stocks are likely to be most affected by sentiment. In particular, stocks that are difficult to arbitrage or to value are most affected by sentiment.

scholarly journals Weak form market efficiency test of Bangladesh Stock Exchange: an empirical evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange and Chittagong Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 285
Author(s):  
Shafir Zaman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficiency Test ◽  
Non Parametric ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

Investors need to have an idea about stock market before making investment whether the stock markets are efficient or not to take investment decision in stock market. For that reason, measurement of market efficiency of stock market bears significance to investors. Bearing it in mind, the study is undertaken to find out the existence of weak form efficiency prevails in largest stock market of Bangladesh. In order to get perfect result Parametric and Non Parametric tests were conducted of DSE & CSE for 2013 to 2017. It was found from all tests that Dhaka and Chittagong Stock exchange are not weak form efficient. Therefore, the result of the study will act as a helping hand to researchers to find out the reason of Bangladesh stock market not being weak form efficient as well as providing measurement to make the stock market weak form efficient.

STOCK MARKET REACTION TO BREXIT ANNOUNCEMENTS: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (03) ◽  
pp. 1950018 ◽  
Author(s):  
JÚLIO LOBÃO ◽  
SÍLVIA SANTOS
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
Trading Activity ◽  
Stock Market Reaction ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
European Stock Markets

Using four Brexit-related announcements as a source of exogenous information shocks, we investigate the semi-strong form of efficiency in seven major European stock markets. Our results suggest that only the announcement of the Brexit referendum result produced statistically significant negative cumulative abnormal returns in the markets of the sample. However, with the exception of the Irish stock market, the effects ceased to be significant in a period of five trading sessions after the event. We also document an increase in trading activity, though statistically insignificant, in the day of the referendum and in the following days. Overall, our results are in line with the semi-strong form of market efficiency.

How the Equity Terminal Value Influences the Value of the Firm?

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso A. Rojo-Ramírez ◽  
Maria J. Martínez-Romero ◽  
Teresa Mariño-Garrido
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Common Stock ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Cash Flows

AbstractThe discounted cash flow model (DCFM) views the intrinsic value of common stock as the present value of its expected future cash flows. This paper analyses whether the equity terminal value (EqTV) of the firm calculated by fundamentals is appreciated by the market. It also studies the impact of variations in EqTV and the extent to which the market perceives these variations. Using a sample of 62 Spanish listed companies, this paper shows that EqTV and its variations are positively and significantly correlated with EqTV assigned by the market and its corresponding variations. It therefore corroborates the validity and relevance of the valuation model.

scholarly journals Predictive ability of accruals before and after IFRS in the Brazilian stock market

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (78) ◽  
pp. 375-389
Author(s):  
Terence Machado Boina ◽  
Marcelo Alvaro da Silva Macedo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Discretionary Accruals ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Accounting Quality ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Accounting Choices ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Future Cash Flows

ABSTRACT This study aimed to analyze and assess the predictive ability of discretionary accruals (DAs) and non-discretionary accruals (NDAs) for forecasting future cash flows before and after the convergence with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Brazil. The study is warranted due to the scarcity of research in Brazil on the subject and is relevant because it aims to shed light on whether the changes occurring due to convergence with IFRS in Brazil have improved accounting quality. The accounting choices of managers and accountants in the Brazilian stock market, enabled by IFRS, contribute to an apparent improvement in accounting quality in terms of reliability, the faithful representation of entities’ equity and financial positions, and in particular, the predictive ability for forecasting future cash flows. The population was composed of publicly traded companies listed on the Bovespa and São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) in 2004 to 2007 and 2010 to 2015. The non-probability convenience sample is composed of 715 enterprises, once companies from the “finance and insurance” and “funds” sectors and even those considered as “holding” were excluded. The data were pooled by year, as they contain different companies over the time series (unbalanced panel data). The DAs and NDAs produced prior to full convergence with IFRS are negative and statistically significant for predicting future cash flows in the Brazilian stock market, which indicated opportunistic/contractual earnings management. One of the possible explanations for this would be the influence of government tax authorities on Brazilian accounting norms, which could induce managers to manipulate accounting results with the aim of reducing earnings in order to pay fewer taxes, for example. The DAs and NDAs produced after IFRS are positive and statistically significant for predicting future cash flows in the Brazilian stock market, signaling the motivation of discretionary accounting choices under the informational aspect. Current DAs and NDAs add informational power compared to current aggregate accruals. It has also been observed that the current DAs and NDAs originating after IFRS in Brazil, compared to current aggregate accruals, have an informational gain in relation to those produced before.

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