Integrating ensemble species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography to inform projections of climate change impacts on species distributions

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 1480-1495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brenna R. Forester ◽  
Eric G. DeChaine ◽  
Andrew G. Bunn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Statistical Phylogeography

scholarly journals Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1761) ◽  
pp. 20170446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Jarvie ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
First Century ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Biodiversity And Ecosystem Function

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.

scholarly journals Strictly protected species of hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) in Serbia in the face of climate change

2018 ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marija Milicic ◽  
Marina Jankovic ◽  
Dubravka Milic ◽  
Snezana Radenkovic ◽  
Ante Vujic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Protected Species ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
The Face ◽  
Intensive Land Use

Climate change is happening. Due to a spectrum of possible conse?quences, numerous studies examine the effects of global warming on species distribution. This study examines the effects of changing climate on distribution of selected strictly protected species of hoverflies in Serbia, by using species distribution modelling. Ten species were included in the analysis. Three species were predicted to lose a part of their range across time, while for seven species the range expansion was predicted. Both in the present time and in the future, mountainous regions have the highest species richness, such as Golija, Kopaonik, and Prokletije in the western Serbia, and mountains Stara Planina, Besna Kobila, Suva Planina, and Dukat in the southeastern part of the country. However, beside climate change, there are several other factors that might influence the distribution of strictly pro?tected hoverflies in Serbia, such as intensive land use and degradation of habitats. Addition?ally, global warming also affects flowering plants that syrphids are dependent on, which could present another obstacle to their future range expansions. These results can contribute to planning future steps for the conservation of strictly protected hoverfly species.

Will tropical mountaintop plant species survive climate change? Identifying key knowledge gaps using species distribution modelling in Australia

2015 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 322-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig M. Costion ◽  
Lalita Simpson ◽  
Petina L. Pert ◽  
Monica M. Carlsen ◽  
W. John Kress ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Knowledge Gaps ◽  
Distribution Modelling

scholarly journals Classification of unlabeled observations in Species Distribution Modelling using Point Process Models

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emy Guilbault ◽  
Ian Renner ◽  
Michael Mahony ◽  
Eric Beh
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Process Models ◽  
List Type ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Species Identity ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Unknown Species

1AbstractSpecies distribution modelling, which allows users to predict the spatial distribution of species with the use of environmental covariates, has become increasingly popular, with many software platforms providing tools to fit species distribution models. However, the species observations used in species distribution models can have varying levels of quality and can have incomplete information, such as uncertain species identity.In this paper, we develop two algorithms to reclassify observations with unknown species identities which simultaneously predict different species distributions using spatial point processes. We compare the performance of the different algorithms using different initializations and parameters with models fitted using only the observations with known species identity through simulations.We show that performance varies with differences in correlation among species distributions, species abundance, and the proportion of observations with unknown species identities. Additionally, some of the methods developed here outperformed the models that didn’t use the misspecified data.These models represent an helpful and promising tool for opportunistic surveys where misidentification happens or for the distribution of species newly separated in their taxonomy.

scholarly journals Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 1468-1478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Bush ◽  
Karel Mokany ◽  
Renee Catullo ◽  
Ary Hoffmann ◽  
Vanessa Kellermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Evolutionary Adaptation ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change
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