Vulnerable, but still poorly known, marine ecosystems: how to make distribution models more relevant and impactful for conservation and management of VMEs?

Human activity puts our oceans under multiple stresses, whose impacts are already significantly affecting biodiversity and physicochemical properties. Consequently, there is an increased international focus on the conservation and sustainable use of oceans, including the protection of fragile benthic biodiversity hotspots in the deep sea, identified as vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). International VME risk assessment and conservation efforts are hampered because we largely do not know where VMEs are located. VME distribution modelling has increasingly been recommended to extend our knowledge beyond sparse observations. Nevertheless, the adoption of VME distribution models in spatial management planning and conservation remains limited. This work critically reviews VME distribution modelling studies, and recommends promising avenues to make VME models more relevant and impactful for policy and management decision making. First, there is an important interplay between the type of VME data used to build models and how the generated maps can be used in making management decisions, which is often ignored by model-builders. We encourage scientists towards founding their models on: (i) specific and quantitative definitions of what constitute a VME, (ii) site conservation value assessment in relation to VME multi-taxon spatial predictions, and (iii) explicitly mapping vulnerability. Along with the recent increase in both deep-sea biological and environmental data quality and quantity, these modelling recommendations can lead towards more cohesive summaries of VME’s spatial distributions and their relative vulnerability, which should facilitate a more effective protection of these ecosystems, as has been mandated by numerous international agreements.

LONG-TERM MONITORING OF THE EUROPEAN ROLLER (CORACIAS GARRULUS) IN UKRAINE: IS CLIMATE BEHIND THE CHANGES?

Since the 1980s there has been a long-term decline in numbers and contraction of range in Europe, including Ukraine. Our specific goals were to reconstruct the climatically suitable range of the species in Ukraine before the 1980s, gain better knowledge on its requirements, compare the past and current suitable areas, infer the regional and environmental variables that best explain its occurrence, and quantify the overall range change in the country. For these purposes we created a database consisting of 347 records of the roller made ever in Ukraine. We employed a species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to hindcast changes in the suitable range of the roller during historical times across Ukraine and to derive spatially explicit predictions of climatic suitability for the species under current climate. SDMs were created for three time intervals (before 1980, 1985-2009, 2010-2021) using corresponding climate data extracted from the TerraClim database. SDMs show a decline of suitable for rollers areas in the country from 85 to 46%. Several factors, including land cover and use, human population density and climate, that could have contributed to the decline of the species in Ukraine were considered. We suggest climate change and its speed (velocity) have been responsible for shaping the contemporary home range of the European roller. Key words: Coracias garrulus; species distribution modelling; ecological niche; climate change; velocity of climate change

First record of Cnemidochroma phyllopus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in the province of Corrientes, Argentina and potential distribution in the southern part of South America

Cnemidochroma Schmidt, 1924, a small genus of the tribe Callichromatini endemic in South America, comprises six species of which the only one recorded in Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil is C. phyllopus (Guérin-Méneville, 1844). The aim of this study was to estimate potential suitable areas for C. phyllopus to provide further knowledge on its current distribution. A dataset of 43 records was compiled and species distribution modelling was employed linking these occurrences with bioclimatic variables. Results indicate higher suitability conditions along the Atlantic coast of Brazil, reaching north Uruguay and extending inland to Paraguay and northern parts of Argentina. In addition, we report a new distributional record from Corrientes, Argentina.

Evolutionary history of the two North African hedgehogs (Mammalia: Erinaceidae) Atelerix algirus and Paraechinus aethiopicus based on phylogeography and species distribution modelling

Two species of hedgehogs are known to occur in northern part of Africa: the Algerian hedgehog Atelerix algirus and the Ethiopian hedgehog Paraechinus aethiopicus. Within each species several subspecies were described based on morphometrical data and pelage coloration, but all these subspecies have enigmatic and unclear definitions. We investigated the phylogeographical history and taxonomy of these two species based on mitochondrial DNA data covering the entire geographical distribution of A. algirus and the North African distribution of P. aethiopicus. We also used climatic niche modelling to make inferences about their evolutionary history. Low genetic diversity was recovered in both species. While no phylogeographic pattern was found in P. aethiopicus, two haplogroups were identified within A. algirus. This could be explained by the fact that continuous high or moderate climatic suitability occurred throughout most of the Saharan desert since the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) for the first species, while during the LGM there were several disconnected areas of high climatic suitability for A. algirus: one in South-West Morocco, one at the coastal Moroccan-Algerian border and one in Tunisia-coastal Libya. Our genetic results confirm that A. algirus recently colonized Spain, Balearic and Canary Islands, and that this colonization was probably mediated by humans. Suitable climatic conditions occurred throughout most of the Southern and Eastern Iberian Peninsula during the last 6,000 years which could have favored the spatial expansion of the Algerian hedgehog after its arrival in Europe. According to our molecular results subspecific recognition within North Africa is unwarranted for both species.

Handling uncertainty through Bayesian inference for Species Distribution Modelling in the Amazon Basin region

Uma das ferramentas mais utilizadas para o monitoramento da biodiversidade é a modelagem de distribuição de espécies. Para a sua aplicação, é necessário possuir uma grande base de dados confiáveis a respeito da ocorrência de espécies. Entretanto, essa condição não é satisfeita quando existem poucos registros de ocorrência. Nesse contexto, podem ser aplicadas técnicas de tratamento de incertezas. Assim, este trabalho buscou utilizar a abordagem Bayesiana para permitir a modelagem de distribuição de espécies na região da Bacia Amazônica próxima a Manaus (AM), com base em dados coletados pelo projeto GoAmazon 2014/15. Os resultados foram comparados com os resultantes de técnicas clássicas, obtendo desempenhos semelhantes.

Discerning the Management-Relevant Ecology and Distribution of Sea Pens (Cnidaria: Pennatulacea) in Norway and Beyond

Sea pens are considered to be of conservation relevance according to multiple international legislations and agreements. Consequently, any information about their ecology and distribution should be of use to management decision makers. This study aims to provide such information about six taxa of sea pen in Norwegian waters [Funiculina quadrangularis (Pallas, 1766), Halipteris spp., Kophobelemnon stelliferum (Müller, 1776), Pennatulidae spp., Umbellula spp., and Virgulariidae spp.]. Data exploration techniques and ensembled species distribution modelling (SDM) are applied to video observations obtained by the MAREANO project between 2006 and 2020. Norway-based ecological profiles and predicted distributions are provided and discussed. External validations and uncertainty metrics highlight model weaknesses (overfitting, limited training/external observations) and consistencies relevant to marine management. Comparison to international literature further identifies globally relevant findings: (a) disparities in the environmental profile of F. quadrangularis suggest differing “realised niches” in different locations, potentially highlighting this taxon as particularly vulnerable to impact, (b) none of the six sea pen taxa were found to consistently co-occur, instead partially overlapping environmental profiles suggests that grouping taxa as “sea pens and burrowing megafauna” should be done with caution post-analyses only, (c) higher taxonomic level groupings, while sometimes necessary due to identification issues, result in poorer quality predictive models and may mask the occurrence of rarer species. Community-based groupings are therefore preferable due to confirmed shared ecological niches while greater value should be placed on accurate species ID to support management efforts.

The geographic distribution of Senecio glastifolius in New Zealand: past, current and climatic potential

<p>Senecio glastifolius (Asteraceae) is an invasive species in New Zealand, where it threatens rare and vulnerable coastal floristic communities. It has expanded its range dramatically over recent years and continues to spread. It is subject to control programs in parts of its distribution. Uncertainty over its future distribution and invasive impacts in New Zealand contribute to the difficulty of its management. To address this knowledge gap, the potential distribution of S. glastifolius in New Zealand was predicted, based on its bioclimatic niche. Existing information on its current distribution and historic spread is incomplete, stored in disparate sources, and is often imprecise or inaccurate. In this study, available information on its distribution and spread was synthesised, processed, and augmented with new data collected in the field by the author. This data set was optimised for use in species distribution modelling. The distribution of S. glastifolius is described in its native range of South Africa, plus invaded regions in Australia, the British Isles and New Zealand. The data set describing its distribution is of higher quality than any known previous data set, is more extensive, and more suitable for use in species distribution modelling. The historic spread of S. glastifolius in New Zealand is presented, illustrating its expansion from sites of introduction in Wellington, Gisborne, plus several subsequent sites, to its now considerable range throughout much of central New Zealand. A predictive model of the potential distribution of S. glastifolius was created based on the three main climatic variables observed to limit its distribution: mean annual temperature range, aridity, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. MaxEnt models were trained on data from all regions for which georeferenced records of the species were available; South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Isles of Scilly. Predictions were evaluated using methods appropriate to the special case of range-expanding species. Models performed well during validation, suggesting good predictive ability when applied to new areas. Analysis of the realised niche space of S. glastifolius in the two climatic dimensions most influencing its distribution: Annual Temperature Range and Aridity, indicated that it is exploiting almost totally disjunct niche spaces in New Zealand and South Africa. Of the climate space occupied in New Zealand, almost none is available to the species in its native range of South Africa. Predictions of S. glastifolius’s potential distribution in New Zealand reveal significant areas of suitable habitat yet to be invaded. Much of this suitable habitat is contiguous with the current range and active dispersal front of S. glastifolius, suggesting that invasion is highly likely under a scenario of no management intervention. Specifically, it is suggested that control and surveillance in coastal Taranaki are required to prevent invasion of an area covering most of the northern third of the North Island.</p>

The geographic distribution of Senecio glastifolius in New Zealand: past, current and climatic potential

<p>Senecio glastifolius (Asteraceae) is an invasive species in New Zealand, where it threatens rare and vulnerable coastal floristic communities. It has expanded its range dramatically over recent years and continues to spread. It is subject to control programs in parts of its distribution. Uncertainty over its future distribution and invasive impacts in New Zealand contribute to the difficulty of its management. To address this knowledge gap, the potential distribution of S. glastifolius in New Zealand was predicted, based on its bioclimatic niche. Existing information on its current distribution and historic spread is incomplete, stored in disparate sources, and is often imprecise or inaccurate. In this study, available information on its distribution and spread was synthesised, processed, and augmented with new data collected in the field by the author. This data set was optimised for use in species distribution modelling. The distribution of S. glastifolius is described in its native range of South Africa, plus invaded regions in Australia, the British Isles and New Zealand. The data set describing its distribution is of higher quality than any known previous data set, is more extensive, and more suitable for use in species distribution modelling. The historic spread of S. glastifolius in New Zealand is presented, illustrating its expansion from sites of introduction in Wellington, Gisborne, plus several subsequent sites, to its now considerable range throughout much of central New Zealand. A predictive model of the potential distribution of S. glastifolius was created based on the three main climatic variables observed to limit its distribution: mean annual temperature range, aridity, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. MaxEnt models were trained on data from all regions for which georeferenced records of the species were available; South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Isles of Scilly. Predictions were evaluated using methods appropriate to the special case of range-expanding species. Models performed well during validation, suggesting good predictive ability when applied to new areas. Analysis of the realised niche space of S. glastifolius in the two climatic dimensions most influencing its distribution: Annual Temperature Range and Aridity, indicated that it is exploiting almost totally disjunct niche spaces in New Zealand and South Africa. Of the climate space occupied in New Zealand, almost none is available to the species in its native range of South Africa. Predictions of S. glastifolius’s potential distribution in New Zealand reveal significant areas of suitable habitat yet to be invaded. Much of this suitable habitat is contiguous with the current range and active dispersal front of S. glastifolius, suggesting that invasion is highly likely under a scenario of no management intervention. Specifically, it is suggested that control and surveillance in coastal Taranaki are required to prevent invasion of an area covering most of the northern third of the North Island.</p>