Examining the predictive validity of low-risk gambling limits with longitudinal data

Abstract Background. There is little longitudinal evidence on the cumulative risk of harm from gambling associated with excess spending and frequency of play. The present study sought to assess the risk of gambling problems over a five-year period in adults who exceed previously derived low-risk gambling limits compared to those who remain within the limits after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Methods. Participants were adults (N = 4212) drawn from two independent Canadian longitudinal cohort studies who reported gambling in the past year and were free of problem gambling at time 1. Multivariate Cox regression was employed to assess the impact over time of gambling above low-risk gambling thresholds (frequency ≥ 8 times per month; expenditure ≥ 75CAD per month; percent of household income spent on gambling ≥ 1.7%) on developing moderate harm and problem gambling. Covariates included presence of a DSM5 addiction or mental health disorder at time 1, irrational gambling beliefs, number of stressful life events in past 12 months, number of game types played each year, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. Results. In both samples, exceeding the low-risk gambling limits at time 1 significantly increased the risk of moderate harm (defined as ≥ 2 consequences on the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) within five years after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Other significant predictors of harm were presence of a mental disorder at time 1, cognitive distortions about gambling, stressful life events, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. In one sample, the five-year cumulative survival rate for moderate harm among individuals who stayed below all the low-risk limits was 95% compared to 83% among gamblers who exceeded all limits. Each additional low-risk limit exceeded increased the cumulative probability of harm by 30%. Similar results were found in models when the outcome was problem gambling.Conclusions. Level of gambling involvement represents a highly modifiable risk factor for later harm. Staying below empirically derived safe gambling thresholds reduces the risk of harm over time.

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Assessing Effective Coping with Bereavement in College Students: The Reactions to Loss Scale

OMEGA - Journal of Death and Dying ◽

10.2190/om.68.3.d ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 68 (3) ◽

pp. 241-257 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Eric Cooley ◽

Tamina Toray ◽

Lauren Roscoe

Keyword(s):

College Students ◽

Negative Affect ◽

Longitudinal Data ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Loss Of Control ◽

Positive Reappraisal ◽

Control Scale ◽

Loss Event ◽

Positive Feelings ◽

Negative Feelings

The predictive validity of the Reactions to Loss Scale (RTL) was assessed in two studies ( N = 185 and 170) of college students who reported a recent loss and their feelings about and preoccupation with the loss. Across a 9–week interval, participants reported an increase in positive feelings about the loss event and a decrease in negative feelings, regret, and preoccupation with the loss. The Positive Reappraisal Scale of the RTL predicted increased positive feelings and a reduction of regret. Avoidance scale of the RTL predicted higher levels of regret and the Loss of Control scale predicted higher levels of negative affect (Study 2). This longitudinal data supports the validity of the Reactions to Loss scale and supports the value of assessing positive, resilient responses to a loss.

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A research plan to define Canada’s first low-risk gambling guidelines

Health Promotion International ◽

10.1093/heapro/day074 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 34 (6) ◽

pp. 1207-1217 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Shawn R Currie ◽

Shawn Currie ◽

Marie-Claire Flores-Pajot ◽

David Hodgins ◽

Louise Nadeau ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Emotional Health ◽

Large Population ◽

Population Data ◽

Low Risk ◽

Public Health Perspective ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Similar Dose ◽

Nationally Representative ◽

Risk Gambling

AbstractFrom a public health perspective, gambling shares many of the same characteristics as alcohol. Notably, excessive gambling is associated with many physical and emotional health harms, including depression, suicidal ideation, substance use and addiction and greater utilization of health care resources. Gambling also demonstrates a similar ‘dose-response’ relationship as alcohol—the more one gambles, the greater the likelihood of harm. Using the same collaborative, evidence-informed approach that produced Canada’s Low-Risk Alcohol Drinking and Lower Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines, a research team is leading the development of the first national Low-Risk Gambling Guidelines (LRGGs) that will include quantitative thresholds for safe gambling. This paper describes the research methodology and the decision-making process for the project. The guidelines will be derived through secondary analyses of several large population datasets from Canada and other countries, including both cross-sectional and longitudinal data on over 50 000 adults. A scientific committee will pool the results and put forward recommendations for LRGGs to a nationally representative, multi-agency advisory committee for endorsement. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic attempt to generate a workable set of LRGGs from population data. Once validated, the guidelines inform public health policy and prevention initiatives and will be disseminated to addiction professionals, policy makers, regulators, communication experts and the gambling industry. The availability of the LRGGs will help the general public make well-informed decisions about their gambling activities and reduce the harms associated with gambling.

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An empirical study of the predictive validity of number grades in medical school using 3 decades of longitudinal data: implications for a grading system

Medical Education ◽

10.1111/j.1365-2923.2004.01774.x ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 38 (4) ◽

pp. 425-434 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Joseph S Gonnella ◽

James B Erdmann ◽

Mohammadreza Hojat

Keyword(s):

Empirical Study ◽

Longitudinal Data ◽

Medical School ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Grading System

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Predicting Future Harm from Gambling over a Five-Year period in a General Population Sample: A Survival Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-42471/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shawn Currie ◽

David Hodgins ◽

Robert Williams ◽

Kirsten Fiest

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Problem Gambling ◽

Life Events ◽

Stressful Life Events ◽

Low Risk ◽

Modifiable Risk Factors ◽

Electronic Gaming Machines ◽

Risk Gambling ◽

Gaming Machines ◽

Over Time

Abstract Background. There is little longitudinal evidence on the cumulative risk of harm from gambling associated with excess spending and frequency of play. The present study sought to assess the risk of gambling problems over a five-year period in adults who exceed previously derived low-risk gambling limits compared to those who remain within the limits after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Methods. Participants were adults (N = 4212) drawn from two independent Canadian longitudinal cohort studies who reported gambling in the past year and were free of problem gambling at time 1. Multivariate Cox regression was employed to assess the impact over time of gambling above low-risk gambling thresholds (frequency ≥ 8 times per month; expenditure ≥ $75CAN per month; percent of household income spent on gambling ≥ 1.7%) on developing moderate harm and problem gambling. Covariates included presence of a DSM5 addiction or mental health disorder at time 1, irrational gambling beliefs, number of stressful life events in past 12 months, number of game types played each year, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. Results. In both samples, exceeding the low-risk gambling limits at time 1 significantly increased the risk of moderate harm (defined as ≥ 2 consequences on the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) within five years after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Other significant predictors of harm were presence of a mental disorder at time 1, cognitive distortions about gambling, stressful life events, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. In one sample, the five-year cumulative survival rate for moderate harm among individuals who stayed below all the low-risk limits was 95% compared to 83% among gamblers who exceeded all limits. Each additional low-risk limit exceeded increased the cumulative probability of harm by 30%. Similar results were found in models when the outcome was problem gambling.Conclusions. Level of gambling involvement represents a highly modifiable risk factor for later harm. Staying below empirically derived safe gambling thresholds reduces the risk of harm over time.

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Commentary on Currie et al . (2017): Low-risk gambling limits-a bridge too far?

Addiction ◽

10.1111/add.14017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 112 (11) ◽

pp. 2021-2022 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Max W. Abbott

Keyword(s):

Low Risk ◽

Risk Gambling

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Predicting Future Harm from Gambling over a Five-Year period in a General Population Sample: A Survival Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-42471/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shawn Currie ◽

David Hodgins ◽

Robert Williams ◽

Kirsten Fiest

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Life Events ◽

Stressful Life Events ◽

Low Risk ◽

Stressful Life ◽

Gambling Problems ◽

Electronic Gaming Machines ◽

Risk Gambling ◽

Gaming Machines ◽

Over Time

Abstract Background There is little longitudinal evidence on the cumulative risk of harm from gambling associated with excess spending and frequency of play. The present study sought to assess over a five-year period the risk of gambling problems in adults who exceed previously derived low-risk gambling limits compared to those who remain within the limits after controlling for other modifiable psychosocial risk factors. Methods Participants were adults (N = 4212) drawn from two independent Canadian longitudinal cohort studies (Quinte Longitudinal Study and Leisure, Lifestyle, and Lifecycle Project) who reported gambling in the past year and were free of problem gambling at time 1. Multivariate Cox regression was employed to assess the impact of gambling above low-risk gambling thresholds (frequency ≥ 8 times per month; expenditure ≥ $75CAN per month; percent of household income spent on gambling ≥ 1.7%) on developing gambling problems over time. Covariates included presence of a DSM 5 addiction or mental health disorder at time 1, irrational gambling beliefs, number of stressful life events in past 12 months, number of game types played each year, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. Results In both samples, exceeding the low-risk gambling limits at time 1 significantly increased the risk of moderate harm within five years after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Other significant predictors of harm were presence of a mental disorder at time 1, cognitive distortions about gambling, stressful life events, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. In the QLS sample, the five-year cumulative survival rate among individuals who stayed below all the low-risk limits was 95% compared to 83% among gamblers who exceeded all limits. Each additional low-risk limit exceeded increased the cumulative probability of harm by 30%. Conclusions Level of gambling involvement represents a highly modifiable risk factor for later harm. Staying below empirically derived safe gambling thresholds reduces the risk of harm over time.

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