Predicting the outcome of severe ulcerative colitis: development of a novel risk score to aid early selection of patients for second-line medical therapy or surgery

Abstract Background An episode of acute severe ulcerative colitis (UC) is a watershed event during the disease course with a heightened risk of colectomy during and following these episodes.1 The prompt identification of these events followed by the early implementation of appropriate treatment is essential to obtaining the best clinical outcomes for these unwell patients. The majority of published risk scores predicting the important clinical outcomes of intravenous corticosteroid therapy failure and colectomy-by-discharge rely on clinical data from days 1–3 of therapy.2 There is a paucity of tools that allow for a simple and individualised prediction of risk of corticosteroid therapy failure during the earliest stages of admission. Methods Data were prospectively obtained from 349 presentations of moderate–severe UC requiring hospital admission to a tertiary referral hospital. The failure of intravenous corticosteroid therapy was strictly defined by the (Oxford) Day 3 and Day 7 criteria.3 Seventeen clinical, laboratory and endoscopic variables all available within 24 h of hospital presentation were assessed for their ability to differentiate intravenous corticosteroid therapy responders from non-responders. A stepwise generalised linear model was formulated based on the results of the initial univariate analyses. Results Intravenous corticosteroid therapy failure occurred in 208/349 (60%) of presentations. The formulated risk score included the variables of oral corticosteroid therapy failure, bowel frequency and serum albumin concentration with or without the Mayo endoscopic subscore (MES). With the addition of the MES, the area under the curve (AUC) of the risk score was 0.758. When the positive predictive value of the score (threshold) for correctly predicting intravenous corticosteroid therapy failure was set at 85%, 105/275 (38%) of presentations with available data were identified as high risk for corticosteroid therapy failure (Figure 1). Conclusion This practical risk assessment tool provides clinicians with a personalised prediction of the likelihood of success of a course of intravenous corticosteroid therapy in moderate–severe UC. It enables the identification of individuals at high risk of treatment failure who may be suitable for consideration of early treatment escalation or screening for appropriate clinical trials. References

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Efficacy of tofacitinib as a «rescue therapy» in patients with severe ulcerative colitis

Koloproktologia ◽

10.33878/10.33878/2073-7556-2021-20-3-43-50 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (3) ◽

pp. 43-50

Author(s):

D. V. Podolskaya ◽

M. V. Shapina ◽

T. A. Baranova ◽

I. A. Tishaeva ◽

T. L. Alexandrov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ulcerative Colitis ◽

Rescue Therapy ◽

Clinical Manifestations ◽

Stool Frequency ◽

Line Treatment ◽

Second Line ◽

Severe Ulcerative Colitis ◽

Laboratory Changes ◽

Time Of Administration

AIM: to evaluate the effectiveness of tofacitinib as a second line treatment.PATIENTS AND METHODS: the study included 12 patients, 4 (33.34%) males and 8 (66.66%) females. The median age was 41 ± 5 years. All patients admitted to the hospital with a severe flare-up of ulcerative colitis, which was the inclusion criterion in this study. Clinical manifestations, laboratory parameters, and colonoscopy were done at the time of administration of tofacitinib, on days 3 and 7, and after 12 weeks.RESULTS: a fast clinical response on 3 day of treatment, reduction in stool frequency, decrease blood in stool was noted in 10 (83.3%) patients. After 7 days from the start of TFCS therapy, all patients showed a decrease from severe activity to mild activity, as well as a decrease in inflammatory blood markers and hemoglobin levels. During the follow-up for 12 weeks, 100% of patients showed positive clinical and laboratory changes. In 10 (83.4%) patients, remission or maintenance of negligible minimal activity was noted.CONCLUSION: the results obtained show that the use of TFTB in hormone-resistant patients can be effective as a second line of “rescue therapy”.

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