Implications of exchange rate volatility for trade: Volatility measurement matters

Author(s):  
Allison Roehling
Author(s):  
Sena Kimm Gnangnon

This paper aims to contribute to the literature on the determinants of real exchange rate volatility by investigating the effect of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows on real exchange rate volatility in recipient-countries. The empirical findings show that over the full sample, AfT flows influence negatively the volatility of real exchange rate, with a lower reducing effect on Least developed countries (LDCs) compared to NonLDCs. The channels through which this effect materializes include export product concentration, institutional and governance quality, foreign direct investment inflows and terms of trade volatility. These results show that AfT flows clearly matter for real exchange rate volatility.


Author(s):  
Juan R. Castro

The document conducts an empirical investigation on the volatility of the Chilean exchange rate regime, using a model of Objective Zones. Through the use of the ARCH model, the document tests the volatility of the exchange rate in the presence of different levels of international reserves and other macroeconomic shocks. The results show that domestic credit, domestic debt and external debt have the greatest impact on the volatility of the variables studied, especially when compared with other fundamental variables. The variance of the exchange rate is heterosedastic but it is not persistent, which implies that the exchange rate is stable, probably when it oscillates between two bands. The volatility of the exchange rate fluctuates to a greater extent in the face of changes in internal and external debt, than with the other variables used.


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