Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets:The Chilean Case

2007 ◽  
pp. 87-100
Author(s):  
Juan R. Castro
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The document conducts an empirical investigation on the volatility of the Chilean exchange rate regime, using a model of Objective Zones. Through the use of the ARCH model, the document tests the volatility of the exchange rate in the presence of different levels of international reserves and other macroeconomic shocks. The results show that domestic credit, domestic debt and external debt have the greatest impact on the volatility of the variables studied, especially when compared with other fundamental variables. The variance of the exchange rate is heterosedastic but it is not persistent, which implies that the exchange rate is stable, probably when it oscillates between two bands. The volatility of the exchange rate fluctuates to a greater extent in the face of changes in internal and external debt, than with the other variables used.

scholarly journals MEASURING EFFICIENCY OF SOUTH AMERICAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DERIVATIVES MARKET IN MINIMIZING CURRENCY RISK:

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
RAAD MOZIB LALON
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
South American ◽  
Currency Risk ◽  
Measuring Efficiency ◽  
Spot Exchange Rate ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper attempts to reveal whether the foreign exchange (FX) derivatives market effectively and efficiently reduces the volatility to foreign exchange rate fiuctuations. Cross-country evidence suggests that development ofthe FXderivatives market does not boost up spot exchange rate volatility and reduces aggregate exposure to currency risk. Intraday evidence for Chile shows that activity in the forward market has not been associated with higher volatility in the exchange rate following the adoption ofa fioating exchange rate regime. The study also found no evidence that net positions of large participants in the FX derivatives market help to predict the exchange rate. These findings support the view that development of the FX derivatives market is valuable to reduce aggregate currency risk.

Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aftab ◽  
Karim Bux Shah Syed ◽  
Naveed Akhter Katper
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Purpose After the fall of fix exchange rate regime in early 1970s, the nexus between the exchange rate volatility and trade flows has been of a great interest to the policy makers and researchers. Resultantly an extensive literature is available on the topic. However, the research findings are inconclusiveness so far. The purpose of this paper is to examine the exchange-rate volatility and bilateral industry trade link between the two important countries of Southeast Asia, i.e. Malaysia and Thailand. Design/methodology/approach This study employs Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) to measure exchange rate volatility and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to study the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. ARDL approach is suitable to accommodate the mix cases (i.e. stationary and first difference stationary). The paper considers 62 Malaysian exporting and 60 Malaysian importing industries with Thailand over the monthly period 2000-2013. Findings Findings suggest the influence of exchange-rate volatility on the trade flows in a limited number of industries. Large industries like instruments and apparatus experience negative influence from exchange-rate volatility. Originality/value Past literature continued to be inconclusiveness on the nexus between exchange-rate volatility and trade flows due to its over-reliance on the aggregated data. Besides, the past studies are more based on quarterly or yearly frequency data. These issues contribute to the aggregation bias. This research focusses on a country bilateral trade pair, using industry level disaggregated monthly data. Such research is rare in Malaysian-Thai bilateral trade context. This study uses a suitable estimation approach and also draws valuable implications.

Arguments for the Ruble Exchange Rate Management

2015 ◽  
pp. 51-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Automatic Mechanism

The paper discusses the target guides and the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy operational instruments. Events of 2014-2015 showed that the inflation targeting regime is not an effective target guide of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy. The key interest rate fails to reflect the proper price of holding and using of financial resources of households, financial and non-financial organizations. The floating exchange rate regime has not become an automatic mechanism of external shocks absorption, but intensifies the exchange rate volatility instead. The exchange rate management is the only effective regime for the current Bank of Russia’s monetary policy.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

scholarly journals What is the exchange rate volatility response to COVID-19 and government interventions?

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 ◽  
pp. 705-719
Author(s):  
Gen-Fu Feng ◽  
Hao-Chang Yang ◽  
Qiang Gong ◽  
Chun-Ping Chang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
The Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Domestic Consumption: A Comparative Study of Developed, Developing and Emerging Economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 164
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zubair Chishti ◽  
Hafiz Syed Muhammad Azeem ◽  
Farrukh Mahmood ◽  
Adeel Ahmed Sheikh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Data Estimation

The current study endeavors to explore the effects of oscillations in the exchange rate on the household aggregate consumption of developed, emerging, and developing economies, employing the panel data from 1995 to 2017. To select an appropriate panel data estimation technique, we apply Brush-Pagan & Hausman Tests for each set of chosen economies. Further, our study deduces that, in the case of developed economies, the oscillations in the exchange rate, significantly, affect the domestic consumption, supporting Alexander’s (1952) conjecture. However, in the case of emerging and developing economies, aggregate consumption does not respond to the exchange rate volatility.

scholarly journals Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?

2006 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 552-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Bacchetta ◽  
Eric van Wincoop
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Order Flow ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Symmetric Information ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Empirical evidence shows that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flow and not to macroeconomic variables. We introduce symmetric information dispersion about future macroeconomic fundamentals in a dynamic rational expectations model in order to explain these stylized facts. Consistent with the evidence, the model implies that (a) observed fundamentals account for little of exchange rate volatility in the short to medium run, (b) over long horizons, the exchange rate is closely related to observed fundamentals, (c) exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals, and (d) the exchange rate is closely related to order flow.

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