scholarly journals Computer model calibration with large non‐stationary spatial outputs: application to the calibration of a climate model

Author(s):  
Kai‐Lan Chang ◽  
Serge Guillas
Author(s):  
Carl Ehrett ◽  
D. Andrew Brown ◽  
Christopher Kitchens ◽  
Xinyue Xu ◽  
Roland Platz ◽  
...  

Abstract Calibration of computer models and the use of those models for design are two activities traditionally carried out separately. This paper generalizes existing Bayesian inverse analysis approaches for computer model calibration to present a methodology combining calibration and design in a unified Bayesian framework. This provides a computationally efficient means to undertake both tasks while quantifying all relevant sources of uncertainty. Specifically, compared with the traditional approach of design using parameter estimates from previously completed model calibration, this generalized framework inherently includes uncertainty from the calibration process in the design procedure. We demonstrate our approach on the design of a vibration isolation system. We also demonstrate how, when adaptive sampling of the phenomenon of interest is possible, the proposed framework may select new sampling locations using both available real observations and the computer model. This is especially useful when a misspecified model fails to reflect that the calibration parameter is functionally dependent upon the design inputs to be optimized.


Technometrics ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Michael Grosskopf ◽  
Derek Bingham ◽  
Marvin L. Adams ◽  
W. Daryl Hawkins ◽  
Delia Perez-Nunez

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 649-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Won Chang ◽  
Murali Haran ◽  
Roman Olson ◽  
Klaus Keller

2012 ◽  
Vol 134 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorin Drignei ◽  
Zissimos P. Mourelatos

Computer, or simulation, models are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Two research topics in building computer models, generally treated separately, are sensitivity analysis and computer model calibration. In sensitivity analysis, one quantifies the effect of each input factor on outputs, whereas in calibration, one finds the values of input factors that provide the best match to a set of test data. In this article, we show a connection between these two seemingly separate concepts for problems with transient signals. We use global sensitivity analysis for computer models with transient signals to screen out inactive input factors, thus making the calibration algorithm numerically more stable. We show that the computer model does not vary with respect to parameters having zero total sensitivity indices, indicating that such parameters are impossible to calibrate and must be screened out. Because the computer model can be computationally intensive, we construct a fast statistical surrogate of the computer model which is used for both sensitivity analysis and computer model calibration. We illustrate our approach with both a simple example and an automotive application involving a road load data acquisition (RLDA) computer model.


2020 ◽  
Vol 143 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Ehrett ◽  
D. Andrew Brown ◽  
Evan Chodora ◽  
Christopher Kitchens ◽  
Sez Atamturktur

Abstract Computer model calibration typically operates by fine-tuning parameter values in a computer model so that the model output faithfully predicts reality. By using performance targets in place of observed data, we show that calibration techniques can be repurposed for solving multi-objective design problems. Our approach allows us to consider all relevant sources of uncertainty as an integral part of the design process. We demonstrate our proposed approach through both simulation and fine-tuning material design settings to meet performance targets for a wind turbine blade.


Author(s):  
Yawen Guan ◽  
Christian Sampson ◽  
J. Derek Tucker ◽  
Won Chang ◽  
Anirban Mondal ◽  
...  

Technometrics ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 501-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joslin Goh ◽  
Derek Bingham ◽  
James Paul Holloway ◽  
Michael J. Grosskopf ◽  
Carolyn C. Kuranz ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Hourdin ◽  
Danny Williamson ◽  
Catherine Rio ◽  
Fleur Couvreux ◽  
Romain Roehrig ◽  
...  

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