Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever virus introduction to Japan via pork products brought in air passengers’ luggage

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 894-905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoshi Ito ◽  
Cristina Jurado ◽  
José Manuel Sánchez‐Vizcaíno ◽  
Norikazu Isoda

2011 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Mur ◽  
B. Martínez-López ◽  
M. Martínez-Avilés ◽  
S. Costard ◽  
B. Wieland ◽  
...  


2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1000-1002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Hung Wang ◽  
Chih-Yen Lin ◽  
Max R. Chang Ishcol ◽  
Aspiro Nayim Urbina ◽  
Wanchai Assavalapsakul ◽  
...  


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiang-Hong Hu ◽  
Xin Pei ◽  
Gui-Quan Sun ◽  
Zhen Jin

African swine fever first broke out in mainland China in August 2018 and has caused a substantial loss to China’s pig industry. Numerous investigations have confirmed that trades and movements of infected pigs and pork products, feeding pigs with contaminative swills, employees, and vehicles carrying the virus are the main transmission routes of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) in mainland China. However, which transmission route is more risky and what is the specific transmission map are still not clear enough. In this study, we crawl the data related to pig farms and slaughterhouses from Baidu Map by writing the Python language and then construct the pig transport network. Following this, we establish an ASFV transmission model over the network based on probabilistic discrete-time Markov chains. Furthermore, we propose spatiotemporal backward detection and forward transmission algorithms in semi-directed weighted networks. Through the simulation and calculation, the risk of transmission routes is analyzed, and the results reveal that the infection risk for employees and vehicles with the virus is the highest, followed by contaminative swills, and the transportation of pigs and pork products is the lowest; the most likely transmission map is deduced, and it is found that ASFV spreads from northeast China to southwest China and then to west; in addition, the infection risk in each province at different times is assessed, which can provide effective suggestions for the prevention and control of ASFV.



Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 302
Author(s):  
Satoshi Ito ◽  
Jaime Bosch ◽  
Cristina Jurado ◽  
José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno ◽  
Norikazu Isoda

In recent years, African swine fever (ASF) has become prevalent in many areas, including Asia. The repeated detection of the ASF virus (ASFV) genome in pork products brought in air passenger’s luggage (PPAP) was also reported from Japanese airports. In the present study, the risk of ASFV exposure to susceptible hosts in Japan via three different pathways was assessed. Two quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were built to estimate the annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs, which could be attributed to foreign job trainees or foreign tourists. A semi-quantitative stochastic model was built to assess the risk of ASFV exposure to wild boar caused by foreign tourists. The overall mean annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs via PPAP carried by foreign job trainees was 0.169 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.000–0.600], whereas that by foreign tourists was 0.050 [95% CI: 0.000–0.214], corresponding to approximately one introduction every 5.9 and 20 years, respectively. The risk of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs was dispersed over the country, whereas that of wild boar was generally higher in the western part of Japan, indicating that the characteristics of the potential ASF risk in each prefecture were varied.



Author(s):  
Kendy Tzu‐Yun Teng ◽  
Chao‐Chin Chang ◽  
Yi‐Lun Tsai ◽  
Chun‐Yao Chiu ◽  
Cheng‐Yao Yang ◽  
...  




2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
A.K. Sibgatullova ◽  
◽  
M.E. Vlasov ◽  
I.A. Titov ◽  
◽  
...  


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 14-19
Author(s):  
A.K. Sibgatullova ◽  
◽  
M.V. Nefedeva ◽  
D.A. Kudryashov ◽  
M.E. Vlasov ◽  
...  


1992 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 3860-3868 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Alcamí ◽  
A Angulo ◽  
C López-Otín ◽  
M Muñoz ◽  
J M Freije ◽  
...  


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document