Job creation and job destruction: The effect of trade shocks on U.S. manufacturing employment

We examine the macroeconomic information content of aggregate earnings from the labor market's perspective. We use insights from the labor economics literature to characterize the information contained in aggregate GAAP earnings and its components that is relevant for predicting aggregate job creation and destruction. Our results suggest that not only does aggregate earnings news convey information about future labor market aggregates, but its information content is incremental to other macroeconomic variables at near-term horizons. Further, the source of this information stems primarily from two earnings components: aggregate core earnings and special items. Shocks to core earnings signal persistent changes in economy-wide profitability that predict aggregate job creation up to four quarters ahead, while shocks to special items predict job destruction up to one quarter. Taken together, our results suggest that aggregate earnings contain useful information about future labor market conditions, with the nature of such information varying across earnings components.

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Forecasting the Impact of Automation on Jobs

10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0002 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 21-40

Author(s):

Cynthia Estlund

Keyword(s):

Labor Market ◽

Job Creation ◽

Job Destruction ◽

Advanced Education ◽

Comparative Advantages ◽

Human Skills ◽

Minority View ◽

The Impact

Chapter 2 digs more deeply into the outlook for job destruction and job creation, and adds some theory and data to Chapter 1’s anecdotes about how machines can replace human workers. It reports an emerging consensus among leading scholars that automation is already contributing to the polarization, or hollowing out, of the labor market by destroying more middle-skill jobs than it is creating. And it reports on the more concerning prediction—still a minority view though more than plausible—that machines are destined to produce overall net job losses as they continually whittle away at humans’ comparative advantages. The chapter arrives at a working premise for the rest of the book that straddles those two forecasts: We are facing a future of less work—at least less work for those with ordinary human skills and without advanced education, and perhaps less work overall. While that straddle might seem untenable, either forecast is similarly bleak for most workers—if we do not respond constructively; and when it comes to the shape of a constructive response, both forecasts point largely in the same direction.

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Local spillovers from high-growth businesses: do gazelles cannibalize or promote employment growth?

Industrial and Corporate Change ◽

10.1093/icc/dtaa032 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Daniel Crown ◽

Timothy Wojan ◽

Anil Rupasingha

Keyword(s):

Employment Growth ◽

Spillover Effect ◽

Job Creation ◽

High Growth ◽

Job Destruction ◽

Metropolitan Statistical Areas ◽

The Impact

Abstract This article estimates the employment spillover effect of high-growth businesses on establishment-level employment growth. We assess whether the impact depends on the rurality of the region, and whether nearby establishments are high-growth businesses themselves. We also estimate the within-industry impact of high-growth establishments (HGEs). The findings show no impact of HGEs on net employment growth, due to equal gross job creation and job destruction on average. However, we find that within the same industry, HGEs contribute to positive net employment growth, with large and nearly equal impacts on existing HGEs across both Metropolitan Statistical Areas regions and non-metro counties.

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