Forecasting the Impact of Automation on Jobs

Chapter 2 digs more deeply into the outlook for job destruction and job creation, and adds some theory and data to Chapter 1’s anecdotes about how machines can replace human workers. It reports an emerging consensus among leading scholars that automation is already contributing to the polarization, or hollowing out, of the labor market by destroying more middle-skill jobs than it is creating. And it reports on the more concerning prediction—still a minority view though more than plausible—that machines are destined to produce overall net job losses as they continually whittle away at humans’ comparative advantages. The chapter arrives at a working premise for the rest of the book that straddles those two forecasts: We are facing a future of less work—at least less work for those with ordinary human skills and without advanced education, and perhaps less work overall. While that straddle might seem untenable, either forecast is similarly bleak for most workers—if we do not respond constructively; and when it comes to the shape of a constructive response, both forecasts point largely in the same direction.

Is This Time Different?

Chapter 1 introduces the debate over whether “this time is different”—whether contemporary innovations in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics are more likely than past rounds of technological innovations to yield net job destruction—and the parallel debate over whether we should welcome or worry about that future. It begins with a tour of some of the innovations that are allowing algorithms and robots to replace human workers at a range of tasks, and explains why the recent COVID-19 crisis is accelerating automation along several vectors. The chapter previews the book’s overall claims that a future of less work is foreseeable, even likely, if not inevitable; that it holds both perils and promise for ordinary workers and the society as a whole; and that it should be met with policy responses that can mitigate the losses and fairly distribute the large potential gains from a more automated economy.

Job Destruction and Closures in Deindustrializing Britain: The Uses and Decline of Workplace Occupations in the 1980s

This article considers the uses and decline of workplace occupations in the 1980s. Developing the contribution by Alan Tuckman on the rise of occupations in the 1970s, attention is given to the structural factors that can explain the reasons why workers’ uses of the tactics have declined since the period. Focusing on the wider context and two contrasting cases (the 1980 Gardner and 1984 Cammell Laird occupations), this article advances six key reasons why this decline has taken place. First, the decline of manufacturing and rising unemployment in the 1980s; second, an overall decline in strikes more generally in terms of their incidence and duration; third, anti-union legislation and policing; fourth, the lack of a positive demonstration effect with regard to ‘successful’ examples of occupations in the 1980s; fifth, the decline of debates around alternative forms of ownership, including nationalization and the incipient workers’ control/cooperatives movement; and sixth, the decline of the far left and the networks that had sustained occupations to some extent in the 1970s and 1980s.

Study of the effects on employment of public aid to renewable energy sources

Economic crisis has raised the topic of whether governments should control the economy in order to promote prosperity and create jobs. This idea has specially sprung in relation to the promotion of entire productive sectors which are considered strategic or high-value by planners, one of which is renewable energies. This article analyzes the Spanish experience on subsidizing wind, mini-hydroelectric and photovoltaic energies in order to foster growth and create so-called «green jobs». Results suggest that more jobs are destroyed than those that initially were intended to be created. Key words: Renewable energies, subsidies, job destruction, economic planning, spending stimulus. JEL Classification: E24; E32; H25; H44; O13; Q42; Q43; Q48. Resumen: La crisis económica ha planteado la cuestión de si los gobiernos deberían controlar la economía para promover la prosperidad y crear empleo. Esta idea ha surgido especialmente en relación a la promoción de sectores productivos enteros que se consideran estratégicos o de alto valor por los planificadores, como el sector de las energías renovables. Este artículo analiza la experiencia española en relación con la subvención de las energías eólica, hidroeléctrica y fotovoltaica para impulsar el crecimiento y crear los llamados «empleos verdes». Los resultados sugieren que se destruyen más empleos de los que inicialmente se pretendía crear. Palabras clave: Energías renovables, subvenciones, destrucción de empleos, planificación económica, estímulos de gasto. Clasificación JEL: E24; E32; H25; H44; O13; Q42; Q43; Q48.

Gross Job-Creation and Gross Job-Destruction Determinants: Empirical Analyse at Micro Firms Data Level

This study analyses gross job-creation and gross job-destruction determinants at the firm level for a panel of Portuguese micro-firms across four industry sectors, using the Ordinary Leat Square and Fixed Effect econometrics model to analyse a database consisting on 15.686 micro firms, for the period going from 2010 to 2017. It was found that laggard gross job-creation, assets tangibility, financial leverage, profits, and the fact firms belong to the construction sector determine gross job-creation. Regarding gross job-destruction, it was found that this variable is determined by its laggard variable, firm’s size, worker’s tenure, and the fact the firm belongs to the hotels and restaurant sector. Finally, findings suggest that a resource-based approach explains gross job-creation and gross job-creation for micro firms by using microdata. This study contributes to the state of the art on the determinants of employment and firing at micro firms’ level as it investigates the importance of the independent variables in explaining micro firm’s labour demand in Portugal.